Hellas Verona

Hellas Verona Luck Index

2025-26 Season · View Serie A standings →

-58
Luck Index Score

Hellas Verona are the definition of "we deserved more." With 18 points from 36.84 expected, they've been robbed this season. 9 draws tell the story - they're dominating matches and walking away with crumbs. The worst part? They've scored 8 fewer goals than their xG suggests. The finishing is cursed. Genuinely, cosmically cursed.

Data last updated Oct 20, 2018, 1:46 AM UTC

18
Points
Expected: 36.84
22
Goals Scored
xG: 29.74
53
Goals Conceded
xGA: 38.14
18.8
Points Below Expected
Unlucky gap

Luck Index Evolution

How the Luck Index has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 8 · 2025-10-26 · vs Cagliari · at home
2-2
Drew at home against Cagliari

A draw that felt like a loss. Hellas Verona created 2.02 xG worth of chances - enough for roughly 2 goals on an average day. They scored 2. Cagliari created almost nothing - just 0.44 xG - but scored 2 goals. The model valued this match at 2.4 points for Hellas Verona. They got 1. That's 1.4 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
82'N. Fagioli scores for Fiorentina (assist: J. Harrison)
85'Tomáš Suslov (Hellas Verona) - Red Card
85'Albert Guðmundsson (Fiorentina) - Red Card
2.02
xG Created
0.44
Opp. xG
-1.4
Pts Lost

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW31 · 2026-04-04 · vs Fiorentina · Home-1.9 pts
Lost 0-1 home despite 1.0 xG. Expected 1.9 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-1 | xG: 0.99-0.36
MW13 · 2025-11-29 · vs Genoa · Away-1.7 pts
Lost 1-2 away despite 2.3 xG. Expected 1.7 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-2 | xG: 2.28-1.75
MW5 · 2025-09-28 · vs AS Roma · Away-1.7 pts
Lost 0-2 away despite 1.4 xG. Expected 1.7 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-2 | xG: 1.38-0.95

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW15 · 2025-12-14 · vs Fiorentina · Away+2.1 pts
Won 2-1 away from 0.9 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.9 expected.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 0.94-1.71
MW14 · 2025-12-06 · vs Atalanta · Home+2.0 pts
Won 3-1 home from 1.0 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.0 expected.
Score: 3-1 | xG: 0.99-1.47
MW28 · 2026-03-08 · vs Bologna · Away+1.2 pts
Won 2-1 away from 2.0 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.8 expected.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 2-1.3

What's Driving the Luck Index

Each factor's contribution to the Luck Index score. These add up to the total.

xPTS Gap
19 fewer points than xG simulations say they deserve
-32.5
Injury Burden
Low injury burden (33 player-games missed) - squad depth available
+22.5
Defensive Luck
Conceded 15 more goals than the 38.1 xGA opponents generated
-18.1
Finishing Luck
Scored 8 fewer goals than their 29.7 xG - wasting chances
-13.8
Shot Volume Gap
Outshooting opponents but not getting the results to match
-12.9
Discipline
Receiving more cards than opponents - decisions going against them
-5.9
Schedule Strength
Faced weaker-than-average opponents so far
+2.7
Total Luck Index-58

Rivalry Check

How are the rivals doing?

Inter
Inter
23W-3D-5L
+45Blessed
#1 in league

What to Expect Next

Regression Outlook
Results Expected to Improve
Last 5: declining|7 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Hellas Verona are deeply cursed at -58. This level of underperformance almost never persists. The data they're generating - the chances created, the shots taken, the defensive work - all point to a team better than their record. Regression to the mean is one of the most reliable forces in sports.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available

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