Hellas Verona

Hellas Verona CURSD Luck Score

2025-26 season · 37 matches played · View Serie A standings →

-61
CLS Score
2nd unluckiest of 20 in the Serie A

Hellas Verona: 21 points from 43 expected, a gap of 21.8. Finishing has cost them: 10 fewer goals than their 34.8 xG should produce. Defensively, 12 more goals conceded than the 47.0 xGA opponents generated. 22 losses, 12 draws. The underlying numbers say this team is better than the table shows. Top driver: xPTS Gap (-31.1 CLS impact). 22 fewer points than xG simulations say they deserve

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

21
Points
Expected: 42.81
25
Goals Scored
xG: 34.81
59
Goals Conceded
xGA: 46.97
21.8
Points Below Expected
Unlucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 31 · 2026-04-04 · vs Fiorentina · at home
0-1
Lost at home against Fiorentina

One of those games where nothing went right. Fiorentina created almost nothing - just 0.36 xG - but scored 1 goal. The model valued this match at 1.9 points for Hellas Verona. They got 0. That's 1.9 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
82'N. Fagioli scores for Fiorentina (assist: J. Harrison)
85'Tomáš Suslov (Hellas Verona) - Red Card
85'Albert Guðmundsson (Fiorentina) - Red Card
0.99
xG Created
0.36
Opp. xG
-1.9
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW31 · 2026-04-04 · vs Fiorentina · Home-1.9 pts
Lost 0-1 home despite 1.0 xG. Expected 1.9 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-1 | xG: 0.99-0.36
MW13 · 2025-11-29 · vs Genoa · Away-1.7 pts
Lost 1-2 away despite 2.3 xG. Expected 1.7 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-2 | xG: 2.28-1.75
MW5 · 2025-09-28 · vs AS Roma · Away-1.7 pts
Lost 0-2 away despite 1.4 xG. Expected 1.7 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-2 | xG: 1.38-0.95

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW15 · 2025-12-14 · vs Fiorentina · Away+2.1 pts
Won 2-1 away from 0.9 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.9 expected.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 0.94-1.71
MW14 · 2025-12-06 · vs Atalanta · Home+2.0 pts
Won 3-1 home from 1.0 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.0 expected.
Score: 3-1 | xG: 0.99-1.47
MW28 · 2026-03-08 · vs Bologna · Away+1.2 pts
Won 2-1 away from 2.0 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.8 expected.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 2-1.3

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

xPTS Gap
22 fewer points than xG simulations say they deserve
-31.1
Injury Burden
Low injury burden (78 player-games missed) - squad depth available
+15.7
Defensive Luck
Conceded 12 more goals than the 47.0 xGA opponents generated
-15
Shot Volume Gap
Outshooting opponents but not getting the results to match
-12.8
Finishing Luck
Scored 10 fewer goals than their 34.8 xG - wasting chances
-11.8
Discipline
Receiving more cards than opponents - decisions going against them
-5.9
Schedule Strength
Faced stronger-than-average opponents - a tough draw
-0.1
Total CLS-61

Rivalry Check

How are the rivals doing?

Inter
Inter
27W-5D-5L
+54Blessed
#1 in league

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
Results Expected to Improve
Last 5: stable|1 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Hellas Verona are deeply cursed at -61. This level of underperformance almost never persists. The data they're generating - the chances created, the shots taken, the defensive work - all point to a team better than their record. Regression to the mean is one of the most reliable forces in sports.

Next Matches
05-24
H
AS Roma
Bet