HUL

Hull City CURSD Luck Score

2026-27 season · 2 matches played · View Premier League standings →

+24
CLS Score
7th luckiest of 23 in the Premier League

Hull City have had fortune smiling on them. The CLS says they're getting more than they deserve based on underlying performance. Not outrageous, but don't be surprised when the wheels start wobbling. Top driver: Shot Volume Gap (+20.3 CLS impact). Getting more points than their shot dominance warrants

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

6
Points
Expected: 1.76
3
Goals Scored
xG: 1.73
0
Goals Conceded
xGA: 3.12
4.2
Points Above Expected
Lucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 2 · 2026-08-29 · vs Coventry · away
1-0
Won away against Coventry

One of those games where nothing went right. The model valued this match at 0.9 points for Hull City. They got 3. That's 2.1 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
82'L. Millar scores for Hull City (assist: M. Belloumi)
0.72
xG Created
1.29
Opp. xG
2.1
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW2 · 2026-08-29 · vs Coventry · Away+2.1 pts
Won 1-0 away from 0.7 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.9 expected.
Score: 1-0 | xG: 0.72-1.29
MW1 · 2026-08-22 · vs Manchester United · Home+2.1 pts
Won 2-0 home from 1.0 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.8 expected.
Score: 2-0 | xG: 1.01-1.83

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW1 · 2026-08-22 · vs Manchester United · Home+2.1 pts
Won 2-0 home from 1.0 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.8 expected.
Score: 2-0 | xG: 1.01-1.83
MW2 · 2026-08-29 · vs Coventry · Away+2.1 pts
Won 1-0 away from 0.7 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.9 expected.
Score: 1-0 | xG: 0.72-1.29

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Shot Volume Gap
Getting more points than their shot dominance warrants
+20.3
xPTS Gap
4 more points than xG simulations predict they deserve
+7.8
Injury Burden
High injury burden (22 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
-5.3
Finishing Luck
Scored 1 more goals than their 1.7 xG - clinical finishing
+3.1
Defensive Luck
Conceded NaN more goals than the 3.1 xGA opponents generated
-0.8
Discipline
Receiving more cards than opponents - decisions going against them
-0.6
Schedule Strength
Faced stronger-than-average opponents - a tough draw
-0.5
Total CLS+24

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
Dip in Form Probable
Last 5: improving|36 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Hull City are riding their luck at +24. They're winning games their underlying numbers don't fully support. The correction hasn't started yet, but historical patterns suggest it's coming.

Next Matches
09-05
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Projected Finish

Projected Position
4
of 20
↑ 17 from current 21
Projected Points
68
from 6 now (+62 remaining)
Pace
0.88
expected pts per game · 36 games left

Projection blends 40% actual points-per-game with 60% expected points-per-game over the 36 games remaining. Heavier weight on xPTS because it strips out finishing variance, defensive luck, and the close-game randomness CURSD already tracks.

Fantasy Outlook

FPL Watch

Most-Owned Attackers

Live FPL data · 6h cache
Hull City's finishing has tracked their xG closely — fantasy returns are sustainable.
PlayerPriceOwnedGoalsxGΔVerdict
Slater MID£4.54.6%00.00.0Finishing in line with xG
McBurnie FWD£5.52.1%00.2-0.2Finishing in line with xG
Belloumi MID£5.00.8%00.2-0.2Finishing in line with xG
Crooks MID£4.50.6%00.00.0Finishing in line with xG
Dowell MID£4.50.4%00.00.0Finishing in line with xG

Δ = goals − xG. Positive = overperforming finishing (often unsustainable). Negative = underperforming (often a buy).