Season2026
INT

Inter Miami CURSD Luck Score

2026 season · 21 matches played · View mls standings →

+20
CLS Score
5th luckiest of 30 in the mls

Inter Miami have had fortune smiling on them. The CLS says they're getting more than they deserve based on underlying performance. Not outrageous, but don't be surprised when the wheels start wobbling. Top driver: xPTS Gap (+12.8 CLS impact). 7 more points than xG simulations predict they deserve

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

41
Points
Expected: 33.99
54
Goals Scored
xG: 44.79
39
Goals Conceded
xGA: 35.37
7
Points Above Expected
Lucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 20 · 2026-08-22 · vs Toronto FC · at home
1-2
Lost at home against Toronto FC

A defeat that defied the run of play. Inter Miami generated 1.83 xG, comfortably more than the 0.51 their opponent managed. Toronto FC generated just 0.51 xG but made it count. The model valued this match at 2.3 points for Inter Miami. They got 0. That's 2.3 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
59'J. Sargent scores for Toronto FC (assist: D. Salloi)
62'D. Etienne scores for Toronto FC
82'L. Messi scores for Inter Miami (assist: R. de Paul)
1.83
xG Created
0.51
Opp. xG
-2.3
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW20 · 2026-08-22 · vs Toronto FC · Home-2.3 pts
Lost 1-2 home despite 1.8 xG. Expected 2.3 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-2 | xG: 1.83-0.51
MW11 · 2026-05-02 · vs Orlando City SC · Home-1.8 pts
Lost 3-4 home despite 3.1 xG. Expected 1.8 pts, got 0.
Score: 3-4 | xG: 3.14-2.26
MW10 · 2026-04-25 · vs New England Revolution · Home-1.1 pts
Drew 1-1 home despite 3.0 xG. Expected 2.1 pts, got 1.
Score: 1-1 | xG: 3-1.54

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW3 · 2026-03-07 · vs DC United · Away+2.0 pts
Won 2-1 away from 1.0 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.0 expected.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 0.98-1.59
MW8 · 2026-04-18 · vs Colorado Rapids · Away+2.0 pts
Won 3-2 away from 1.2 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.0 expected.
Score: 3-2 | xG: 1.18-1.69
MW17 · 2026-07-25 · vs CF Montreal · Away+1.7 pts
Won 1-0 away from 1.8 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.3 expected.
Score: 1-0 | xG: 1.81-2.04

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

xPTS Gap
7 more points than xG simulations predict they deserve
+12.8
Finishing Luck
Scored 9 more goals than their 44.8 xG - clinical finishing
+9.1
Schedule Strength
Faced stronger-than-average opponents - a tough draw
-5.7
Shot Volume Gap
Getting more points than their shot dominance warrants
+5.4
Discipline
Receiving more cards than opponents - decisions going against them
-2.4
Injury Burden
Low injury burden (123 player-games missed) - squad depth available
+1.9
Defensive Luck
Conceded 4 more goals than the 35.4 xGA opponents generated
-1.1
Total CLS+20

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
Dip in Form Probable
Last 5: stable|17 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Inter Miami are riding their luck at +20. They're winning games their underlying numbers don't fully support. The correction hasn't started yet, but historical patterns suggest it's coming.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available