Season2026
INT

Inter Miami CURSD Luck Score

2026 season · 12 matches played · View mls standings →

+11
CLS Score
8th luckiest of 30 in the mls

Inter Miami are getting roughly what they deserve. 22 points vs 18.98 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

22
Points
Expected: 18.98
26
Goals Scored
xG: 22.33
21
Goals Conceded
xGA: 18.4
3
Points Above Expected
Lucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 11 · 2026-05-02 · vs Orlando City SC · at home
3-4
Lost at home against Orlando City SC

One of those games where nothing went right. Inter Miami created 3.14 xG worth of chances - enough for roughly 3 goals on an average day. They scored 3. The model valued this match at 1.8 points for Inter Miami. They got 0. That's 1.8 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
4'I. Fray scores for Inter Miami (assist: T. Segovia)
25'T. Segovia scores for Inter Miami (assist: L. Messi)
33'L. Messi scores for Inter Miami (assist: L. Suarez)
39'M. Ojeda scores for Orlando City SC (assist: J. Ellis)
68'M. Ojeda scores for Orlando City SC (assist: A. Gomez)
78'M. Ojeda scores for Orlando City SC
90'T. Spicer scores for Orlando City SC (assist: B. Ojeda)
3.14
xG Created
2.26
Opp. xG
-1.8
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW11 · 2026-05-02 · vs Orlando City SC · Home-1.8 pts
Lost 3-4 home despite 3.1 xG. Expected 1.8 pts, got 0.
Score: 3-4 | xG: 3.14-2.26
MW10 · 2026-04-25 · vs New England Revolution · Home-1.1 pts
Drew 1-1 home despite 3.0 xG. Expected 2.1 pts, got 1.
Score: 1-1 | xG: 3-1.54
MW7 · 2026-04-11 · vs New York Red Bulls · Home-1.1 pts
Drew 2-2 home despite 2.5 xG. Expected 2.1 pts, got 1.
Score: 2-2 | xG: 2.55-1.33

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW3 · 2026-03-07 · vs DC United · Away+2.0 pts
Won 2-1 away from 1.0 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.0 expected.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 0.98-1.59
MW8 · 2026-04-18 · vs Colorado Rapids · Away+2.0 pts
Won 3-2 away from 1.2 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.0 expected.
Score: 3-2 | xG: 1.18-1.69
MW5 · 2026-03-22 · vs New York City FC · Away+1.5 pts
Won 3-2 away from 1.4 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.5 expected.
Score: 3-2 | xG: 1.45-1.28

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Injury Burden
Low injury burden (38 player-games missed) - squad depth available
+7
xPTS Gap
3 more points than xG simulations predict they deserve
+5.3
Schedule Strength
Faced stronger-than-average opponents - a tough draw
-3.9
Finishing Luck
Scored 4 more goals than their 22.3 xG - clinical finishing
+3.2
Shot Volume Gap
Getting more points than their shot dominance warrants
+1.6
Discipline
Receiving more cards than opponents - decisions going against them
-1.3
Defensive Luck
Conceded 3 more goals than the 18.4 xGA opponents generated
-0.9
Total CLS+11

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: stable|26 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Inter Miami are right where they belong. Their CLS of +11 means results match performance. What you see is what you get.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available