INT

Inter Miami CURSD Luck Score

2026 Season · View mls standings →

+15
CLS Score

Inter Miami are getting roughly what they deserve. 15 points vs 11.22 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.

Data last updated Oct 20, 2018, 1:46 AM UTC

Key Stats

15
Points
Expected: 11.22
16
Goals Scored
xG: 12.75
14
Goals Conceded
xGA: 12.72
3.8
Points Above Expected
Lucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 7 · 2026-04-11 · vs New York Red Bulls · at home
2-2
Drew at home against New York Red Bulls

A draw that felt like a loss. Inter Miami created 2.55 xG worth of chances - enough for roughly 3 goals on an average day. They scored 2. The model valued this match at 2.1 points for Inter Miami. They got 1. That's 1.1 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
15'J. Ruvalcaba scores for New York Red Bulls (assist: J. Hall)
45'M. Silvetti scores for Inter Miami (assist: R. de Paul)
55'G. Berterame scores for Inter Miami
77'A. Mehmeti scores for New York Red Bulls (assist: J. Hall)
2.55
xG Created
1.33
Opp. xG
-1.1
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW7 · 2026-04-11 · vs New York Red Bulls · Home-1.1 pts
Drew 2-2 home despite 2.5 xG. Expected 2.1 pts, got 1.
Score: 2-2 | xG: 2.55-1.33
MW6 · 2026-04-04 · vs Austin · Home-1.0 pts
Drew 2-2 home despite 2.9 xG. Expected 2.0 pts, got 1.
Score: 2-2 | xG: 2.94-1.68
MW1 · 2026-02-22 · vs Los Angeles FC · Away-0.3 pts
Lost 0-3 away. xG: 0.8-3.3.
Score: 0-3 | xG: 0.85-3.26

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW3 · 2026-03-07 · vs DC United · Away+2.0 pts
Won 2-1 away from 1.0 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.0 expected.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 0.98-1.59
MW8 · 2026-04-18 · vs Colorado Rapids · Away+2.0 pts
Won 3-2 away from 1.2 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.0 expected.
Score: 3-2 | xG: 1.18-1.69
MW5 · 2026-03-22 · vs New York City FC · Away+1.5 pts
Won 3-2 away from 1.4 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.5 expected.
Score: 3-2 | xG: 1.45-1.28

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

xPTS Gap
4 more points than xG simulations predict they deserve
+7.7
Injury Burden
Low injury burden (22 player-games missed) - squad depth available
+5.3
Finishing Luck
Scored 3 more goals than their 12.8 xG - clinical finishing
+3.8
Schedule Strength
Faced stronger-than-average opponents - a tough draw
-2.3
Shot Volume Gap
Getting more points than their shot dominance warrants
+1.4
Discipline
Receiving more cards than opponents - decisions going against them
-0.6
Defensive Luck
Conceded 1 more goals than the 12.7 xGA opponents generated
-0.3
Total CLS+15

Rank Per Signal

Where Inter Miami ranks among mls teams on each signal. #1 = most cursed.

9
Schedule Strength
1
30
-2.3
10
Discipline
1
30
-0.6
14
Defensive Luck
1
30
-0.3
20
Shot Volume Gap
1
30
+1.4
24
Finishing Luck
1
30
+3.8
27
xPTS Gap
1
30
+7.7
27
Injury Burden
1
30
+5.3

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: stable|30 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Inter Miami are right where they belong. Their CLS of +15 means results match performance. What you see is what you get.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available