Le Havre

Le Havre CURSD Luck Score

2026-27 season · 5 matches played · View Ligue 1 standings →

-16
CLS Score
2nd unluckiest of 18 in the Ligue 1

Le Havre can't catch a break. 2 points when the data says they deserve closer to 6.15? 3 losses, many of them undeserved based on the chances created. The numbers say better days are coming. Top driver: xPTS Gap (-7.8 CLS impact). 4 fewer points than xG simulations say they deserve

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

2
Points
Expected: 6.15
4
Goals Scored
xG: 6.96
7
Goals Conceded
xGA: 8.05
4.1
Points Below Expected
Unlucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 5 · 2026-09-19 · vs Toulouse · away
2-3
Lost away against Toulouse

One of those games where nothing went right. Le Havre created 2.34 xG worth of chances - enough for roughly 2 goals on an average day. They scored 2. The model valued this match at 1.6 points for Le Havre. They got 0. That's 1.6 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
49'C. Tengstedt scores for Toulouse
51'C. Tengstedt scores for Toulouse (assist: T. Jorgensen)
71'J. Maja scores for Le Havre (assist: S. Nakamura)
79'T. Jorgensen scores for Toulouse (assist: C. Casseres)
88'A. Samatta scores for Le Havre
2.34
xG Created
1.95
Opp. xG
-1.6
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW5 · 2026-09-19 · vs Toulouse · Away-1.6 pts
Lost 2-3 away despite 2.3 xG. Expected 1.6 pts, got 0.
Score: 2-3 | xG: 2.34-1.95
MW3 · 2026-09-05 · vs Stade Brestois 29 · Home-1.2 pts
Lost 1-2 home despite 2.0 xG. Expected 1.2 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-2 | xG: 2.02-2.37
MW4 · 2026-09-12 · vs Angers · Home-0.9 pts
Drew 0-0 home. xG: 1.3-0.6.
Score: 0-0 | xG: 1.31-0.59

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW2 · 2026-08-29 · vs Lyon · Away+0.3 pts
Drew 1-1 away. xG: 0.7-1.8.
Score: 1-1 | xG: 0.69-1.75
MW1 · 2026-08-23 · vs Monaco · Home+-0.8 pts
Lost 0-1 home. xG: 0.6-1.4.
Score: 0-1 | xG: 0.6-1.39
MW4 · 2026-09-12 · vs Angers · Home+-0.9 pts
Drew 0-0 home. xG: 1.3-0.6.
Score: 0-0 | xG: 1.31-0.59

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

xPTS Gap
4 fewer points than xG simulations say they deserve
-7.8
Finishing Luck
Scored 3 fewer goals than their 7.0 xG - wasting chances
-4.6
Shot Volume Gap
Outshooting opponents but not getting the results to match
-3.5
Schedule Strength
Faced weaker-than-average opponents so far
+3.4
Injury Burden
High injury burden (38 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
-2.8
Discipline
Receiving more cards than opponents - decisions going against them
-1.2
Defensive Luck
Conceded 1 fewer goals than the 8.1 xGA opponents generated
+0.5
Total CLS-16

Rivalry Check

How are the rivals doing?

Rennes
Rennes
3W-1D-1L
+18Lucky
#5 in league

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
Improvement Probable
Last 5: declining|33 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

At -16, Le Havre are meaningfully unlucky. They're roughly 4 points below where their performance says they deserve to be. The underlying quality is there - results are expected to follow as luck normalizes.

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