Le Havre

Le Havre CURSD Luck Score

2025-26 Season · View Ligue 1 standings →

-20
CLS Score

Le Havre can't catch a break. 30 points when the data says they deserve closer to 35.76? 12 losses, many of them undeserved based on the chances created. The numbers say better days are coming.

Data last updated Oct 20, 2018, 1:46 AM UTC

Key Stats

30
Points
Expected: 35.76
25
Goals Scored
xG: 33.9
38
Goals Conceded
xGA: 45.74
5.8
Points Below Expected
Unlucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 2 · 2025-08-24 · vs Lens · at home
1-2
Lost at home against Lens

One of those games where nothing went right. Le Havre generated 1.89 xG, comfortably more than the 1.07 their opponent managed. The model valued this match at 1.9 points for Le Havre. They got 0. That's 1.9 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
9'W. Said scores for Lens
40'R. Fofana scores for Lens (assist: W. Said)
45'F. Doucoure scores for Le Havre
1.89
xG Created
1.07
Opp. xG
-1.9
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW2 · 2025-08-24 · vs Lens · Home-1.9 pts
Lost 1-2 home despite 1.9 xG. Expected 1.9 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-2 | xG: 1.89-1.07
MW27 · 2026-03-22 · vs Paris FC · Away-1.4 pts
Lost 2-3 away despite 2.0 xG. Expected 1.4 pts, got 0.
Score: 2-3 | xG: 2.05-2.06
MW25 · 2026-03-08 · vs Stade Brestois 29 · Away-1.2 pts
Lost 0-2 away despite 0.9 xG. Expected 1.2 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-2 | xG: 0.91-1.11

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW22 · 2026-02-15 · vs Toulouse · Home+2.3 pts
Won 2-1 home from 1.2 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.7 expected.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 1.16-2.36
MW9 · 2025-10-26 · vs Auxerre · Away+1.4 pts
Won 1-0 away from 0.9 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.6 expected.
Score: 1-0 | xG: 0.94-0.61
MW10 · 2025-10-29 · vs Stade Brestois 29 · Home+1.3 pts
Won 1-0 home from 1.0 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.7 expected.
Score: 1-0 | xG: 1.01-0.55

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Finishing Luck
Scored 9 fewer goals than their 33.9 xG - wasting chances
-19.2
xPTS Gap
6 fewer points than xG simulations say they deserve
-9.7
Defensive Luck
Conceded 8 fewer goals than the 45.7 xGA opponents generated
+7
Injury Burden
Low injury burden (96 player-games missed) - squad depth available
+6.2
Shot Volume Gap
Outshooting opponents but not getting the results to match
-4.2
Schedule Strength
Faced stronger-than-average opponents - a tough draw
-1
Discipline
Opponents picking up more cards - refereeing luck is on their side
+0.9
Total CLS-20

Rank Per Signal

Where Le Havre ranks among Ligue 1 teams on each signal. #1 = most cursed.

1
Finishing Luck
1
18
-19.2
4
xPTS Gap
1
18
-9.7
4
Shot Volume Gap
1
18
-4.2
9
Schedule Strength
1
18
-1
11
Discipline
1
18
+0.9
14
Injury Burden
1
18
+6.2
16
Defensive Luck
1
18
+7

Rivalry Check

How are the rivals doing?

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
Improvement Probable
Last 5: stable|8 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

At -20, Le Havre are meaningfully unlucky. They're roughly 6 points below where their performance says they deserve to be. The underlying quality is there - results are expected to follow as luck normalizes.

Next Matches
04-26
H
Metz
Bet
05-03
A
Lille
Bet
05-10
H
Marseille
Bet
05-17
A
Lorient
Bet