Season

Le Havre CURSD Luck Score

2025-26 season · 34 matches played · View Ligue 1 standings →

-15

CLS Score

6th unluckiest of 20 in the Ligue 1

Le Havre are getting roughly what they deserve. 35 points vs 40.35 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one. Top driver: Finishing Luck (-15.8 CLS impact). Scored 6 fewer goals than their 38.4 xG - wasting chances

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Points

Expected: 40.35

Goals Scored

xG: 38.42

Goals Conceded

xGA: 51.38

5.3

Points Below Expected

Unlucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match

Matchweek 2 · 2025-08-24 · vs Lens · at home

1-2

Lost at home against Lens

One of those games where nothing went right. Le Havre generated 1.89 xG, comfortably more than the 1.07 their opponent managed. The model valued this match at 1.9 points for Le Havre. They got 0. That's 1.9 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline

9'W. Said scores for Lens

40'R. Fofana scores for Lens (assist: W. Said)

45'F. Doucoure scores for Le Havre

1.89

xG Created

1.07

Opp. xG

-1.9

Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW2 · 2025-08-24 · vs Lens · Home-1.9 pts

Lost 1-2 home despite 1.9 xG. Expected 1.9 pts, got 0.

Score: 1-2 | xG: 1.89-1.07

MW27 · 2026-03-22 · vs Paris FC · Away-1.4 pts

Lost 2-3 away despite 2.0 xG. Expected 1.4 pts, got 0.

Score: 2-3 | xG: 2.05-2.06

MW33 · 2026-05-10 · vs Marseille · Home-1.3 pts

Lost 0-1 home despite 1.1 xG. Expected 1.3 pts, got 0.

Score: 0-1 | xG: 1.14-1.21

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW22 · 2026-02-15 · vs Toulouse · Home+2.3 pts

Won 2-1 home from 1.2 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.7 expected.

Score: 2-1 | xG: 1.16-2.36

MW34 · 2026-05-17 · vs Lorient · Away+1.7 pts

Won 2-0 away from 1.3 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.3 expected.

Score: 2-0 | xG: 1.25-1.3

MW9 · 2025-10-26 · vs Auxerre · Away+1.4 pts

Won 1-0 away from 0.9 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.6 expected.

Score: 1-0 | xG: 0.94-0.61

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Finishing Luck

Scored 6 fewer goals than their 38.4 xG - wasting chances

-15.8

xPTS Gap

5 fewer points than xG simulations say they deserve

-10.4

Defensive Luck

Conceded 7 fewer goals than the 51.4 xGA opponents generated

+8.2

Injury Burden

Low injury burden (116 player-games missed) - squad depth available

+3.6

Shot Volume Gap

Outshooting opponents but not getting the results to match

-2.6

Schedule Strength

Faced weaker-than-average opponents so far

+1.7

Discipline

Opponents picking up more cards - refereeing luck is on their side

+0.3

Total CLS-15

Rivalry Check

How are the rivals doing?

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook

Improvement Probable

Last 5: stable|4 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds

Why?

At -15, Le Havre are meaningfully unlucky. They're roughly 5 points below where their performance says they deserve to be. The underlying quality is there - results are expected to follow as luck normalizes.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available