Rennes

Rennes CURSD Luck Score

2025-26 Season · View Ligue 1 standings →

+40
CLS Score

Rennes have been living on borrowed time. 53 points from 43.83 expected? They're riding a wave of fortune that the data says won't last. Enjoy it while it lasts - regression is coming, and she doesn't knock.

Data last updated Oct 20, 2018, 1:46 AM UTC

Key Stats

53
Points
Expected: 43.83
52
Goals Scored
xG: 47.73
41
Goals Conceded
xGA: 43.52
9.2
Points Above Expected
Lucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 9 · 2025-10-26 · vs Nice · at home
1-2
Lost at home against Nice

A defeat that defied the run of play. Rennes generated 1.74 xG, comfortably more than the 0.73 their opponent managed. Nice generated just 0.73 xG but made it count. The model valued this match at 2.1 points for Rennes. They got 0. That's 2.1 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
38'S. Diop scores for Nice (assist: J. Clauss)
45'J. Clauss scores for Nice
67'A. Ait Boudlal scores for Rennes (assist: P. Frankowski)
1.74
xG Created
0.73
Opp. xG
-2.1
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW9 · 2025-10-26 · vs Nice · Home-2.1 pts
Lost 1-2 home despite 1.7 xG. Expected 2.1 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-2 | xG: 1.74-0.73
MW19 · 2026-01-24 · vs Lorient · Home-1.7 pts
Lost 0-2 home despite 1.8 xG. Expected 1.7 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-2 | xG: 1.76-1.29
MW21 · 2026-02-07 · vs Lens · Away-1.6 pts
Lost 1-3 away despite 1.5 xG. Expected 1.6 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-3 | xG: 1.5-1.16

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW22 · 2026-02-13 · vs Paris Saint Germain · Home+2.6 pts
Won 3-1 home from 1.4 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.4 expected.
Score: 3-1 | xG: 1.36-3.58
MW12 · 2025-11-07 · vs Paris FC · Away+2.4 pts
Won 1-0 away from 0.8 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.6 expected.
Score: 1-0 | xG: 0.75-1.98
MW14 · 2025-11-28 · vs Metz · Away+1.9 pts
Won 1-0 away from 0.8 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.1 expected.
Score: 1-0 | xG: 0.78-1.02

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

xPTS Gap
9 more points than xG simulations predict they deserve
+15.1
Finishing Luck
Scored 4 more goals than their 47.7 xG - clinical finishing
+13.9
Injury Burden
Low injury burden (80 player-games missed) - squad depth available
+8.8
Schedule Strength
Faced stronger-than-average opponents - a tough draw
-6.4
Shot Volume Gap
Getting more points than their shot dominance warrants
+4.7
Discipline
Opponents picking up more cards - refereeing luck is on their side
+2.5
Defensive Luck
Conceded 3 fewer goals than the 43.5 xGA opponents generated
+1.4
Total CLS+40

Rank Per Signal

Where Rennes ranks among Ligue 1 teams on each signal. #1 = most cursed.

3
Schedule Strength
1
18
-6.4
13
Defensive Luck
1
18
+1.4
14
Shot Volume Gap
1
18
+4.7
15
Discipline
1
18
+2.5
16
xPTS Gap
1
18
+15.1
16
Injury Burden
1
18
+8.8
17
Finishing Luck
1
18
+13.9

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
Dip in Form Probable
Last 5: stable|8 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Rennes are riding their luck at +40. They're winning games their underlying numbers don't fully support. The correction hasn't started yet, but historical patterns suggest it's coming.

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