Rennes Luck Index

2025-26 Season · View Ligue 1 standings →

+36

Luck Index Score

Rennes have had fortune smiling on them. 6.3 points above what the data says they deserve. Not outrageous, but don't be surprised when the wheels start wobbling.

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Points

Expected: 37.7

Goals Scored

xG: 39.57

Goals Conceded

xGA: 40.1

6.3

Points Above Expected

Lucky gap

Luck Index Evolution

How the Luck Index has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match

Matchweek 9 · 2025-10-26 · vs Nice · at home

1-2

Lost at home against Nice

A defeat that defied the run of play. Rennes generated 1.74 xG, comfortably more than the 0.73 their opponent managed. Nice generated just 0.73 xG but made it count. The model valued this match at 2.1 points for Rennes. They got 0. That's 2.1 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline

38'S. Diop scores for Nice (assist: J. Clauss)

45'J. Clauss scores for Nice

67'A. Ait Boudlal scores for Rennes (assist: P. Frankowski)

1.74

xG Created

0.73

Opp. xG

-2.1

Pts Lost

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW9 · 2025-10-26 · vs Nice · Home-2.1 pts

Lost 1-2 home despite 1.7 xG. Expected 2.1 pts, got 0.

Score: 1-2 | xG: 1.74-0.73

MW19 · 2026-01-24 · vs Lorient · Home-1.7 pts

Lost 0-2 home despite 1.8 xG. Expected 1.7 pts, got 0.

Score: 0-2 | xG: 1.76-1.29

MW21 · 2026-02-07 · vs Lens · Away-1.6 pts

Lost 1-3 away despite 1.5 xG. Expected 1.6 pts, got 0.

Score: 1-3 | xG: 1.5-1.16

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW22 · 2026-02-13 · vs Paris Saint Germain · Home+2.6 pts

Won 3-1 home from 1.4 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.4 expected.

Score: 3-1 | xG: 1.36-3.58

MW12 · 2025-11-07 · vs Paris FC · Away+2.4 pts

Won 1-0 away from 0.8 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.6 expected.

Score: 1-0 | xG: 0.75-1.98

MW14 · 2025-11-28 · vs Metz · Away+1.9 pts

Won 1-0 away from 0.8 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.1 expected.

Score: 1-0 | xG: 0.78-1.02

What's Driving the Luck Index

Each factor's contribution to the Luck Index score. These add up to the total.

xPTS Gap

6 more points than xG simulations predict they deserve

+12

Finishing Luck

Scored 3 more goals than their 39.6 xG - clinical finishing

+11

Injury Burden

Low injury burden (78 player-games missed) - squad depth available

+10

Schedule Strength

Faced stronger-than-average opponents - a tough draw

-6

Shot Volume Gap

Getting more points than their shot dominance warrants

Defensive Luck

Conceded 3 fewer goals than the 40.1 xGA opponents generated

Discipline

Opponents picking up more cards - refereeing luck is on their side

Total Luck Index+37

Rivalry Check

How are the rivals doing?

What to Expect Next

Regression Outlook

Correction Probable

Last 5: improving|11 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds

Why?

Rennes are riding their luck at +36. They're winning games their underlying numbers don't fully support. The correction hasn't started yet, but historical patterns suggest it's coming. A dip in form is probable.

Next Matches

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