Season

Rennes CURSD Luck Score

2026-27 season · 5 matches played · View Ligue 1 standings →

+18

CLS Score

3rd luckiest of 18 in the Ligue 1

Rennes have had fortune smiling on them. The CLS says they're getting more than they deserve based on underlying performance. Not outrageous, but don't be surprised when the wheels start wobbling. Top driver: xPTS Gap (+8.5 CLS impact). 4 more points than xG simulations predict they deserve

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Points

Expected: 5.59

Goals Scored

xG: 8.78

Goals Conceded

xGA: 11.35

4.4

Points Above Expected

Lucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match

Matchweek 5 · 2026-09-19 · vs Lyon · away

0-4

Lost away against Lyon

One of those games where nothing went right. Rennes generated 1.37 xG, comfortably more than the 3.13 their opponent managed. The model valued this match at 0.6 points for Rennes. They got 0. That's 0.6 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline

7'Ernest Nuamah scores for Lyon (assist: Corentin Tolisso)

30'Ernest Nuamah scores for Lyon (assist: Pavel Šulc)

48'Zachary Athekame scores for Lyon

76'Corentin Tolisso scores for Lyon (assist: Zachary Athekame)

1.37

xG Created

3.13

Opp. xG

-0.6

Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW5 · 2026-09-19 · vs Lyon · Away-0.6 pts

Lost 0-4 away. xG: 1.4-3.1.

Score: 0-4 | xG: 1.37-3.13

MW1 · 2026-08-23 · vs Paris Saint Germain · Home+0.4 pts

Drew 2-2 home. xG: 0.9-2.2.

Score: 2-2 | xG: 0.87-2.16

MW4 · 2026-09-11 · vs Marseille · Home+1.3 pts

Won 1-0 home from 1.9 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.7 expected.

Score: 1-0 | xG: 1.88-1.34

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW3 · 2026-09-06 · vs Angers · Away+1.7 pts

Won 2-1 away from 1.5 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.3 expected.

Score: 2-1 | xG: 1.54-1.66

MW2 · 2026-08-30 · vs Le Mans · Home+1.6 pts

Won 3-2 home from 3.1 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.4 expected.

Score: 3-2 | xG: 3.12-3.06

MW4 · 2026-09-11 · vs Marseille · Home+1.3 pts

Won 1-0 home from 1.9 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.7 expected.

Score: 1-0 | xG: 1.88-1.34

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

xPTS Gap

4 more points than xG simulations predict they deserve

+8.5

Injury Burden

Low injury burden (10 player-games missed) - squad depth available

+4.4

Defensive Luck

Conceded 2 fewer goals than the 11.3 xGA opponents generated

+2.1

Discipline

Opponents picking up more cards - refereeing luck is on their side

+2.1

Shot Volume Gap

Getting more points than their shot dominance warrants

Schedule Strength

Faced stronger-than-average opponents - a tough draw

-0.9

Finishing Luck

Scored 0.8 fewer goals than their 8.8 xG - wasting chances

-0.2

Total CLS+18

Rivalry Check

How are the rivals doing?

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook

Dip in Form Probable

Last 5: improving|33 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds

Why?

Rennes are riding their luck at +18. They're winning games their underlying numbers don't fully support. The correction hasn't started yet, but historical patterns suggest it's coming.

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