LE

Le Mans CURSD Luck Score

2026-27 season · 7 matches played · View Ligue 1 standings →

-7
CLS Score
7th unluckiest of 18 in the Ligue 1

Le Mans are getting roughly what they deserve. 6 points vs 7.5 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

6
Points
Expected: 7.5
10
Goals Scored
xG: 10.9
15
Goals Conceded
xGA: 15.61
1.5
Points Below Expected
Unlucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 2 · 2026-08-30 · vs Rennes · away
2-3
Lost away against Rennes

One of those games where nothing went right. Le Mans created 3.06 xG worth of chances - enough for roughly 3 goals on an average day. They scored 2. The model valued this match at 1.4 points for Le Mans. They got 0. That's 1.4 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
5'E. Lepaul scores for Rennes (assist: A. Thomasson)
26'V. Rongier scores for Rennes (assist: I. Soumare)
30'L. Mafouta scores for Le Mans (assist: L. Calodat)
54'L. Mafouta scores for Le Mans
68'Djibril Sidibé (Le Mans) - Red Card
90'E. Lepaul scores for Rennes
90'Unknown scores for Le Mans
3.06
xG Created
3.12
Opp. xG
-1.4
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW2 · 2026-08-30 · vs Rennes · Away-1.4 pts
Lost 2-3 away despite 3.1 xG. Expected 1.4 pts, got 0.
Score: 2-3 | xG: 3.06-3.12
MW4 · 2026-09-13 · vs Lens · Home-0.9 pts
Drew 2-2 home. xG: 2.6-1.6.
Score: 2-2 | xG: 2.59-1.62
MW7 · 2026-10-16 · vs Toulouse · Home-0.8 pts
Lost 0-3 home. xG: 0.9-1.8.
Score: 0-3 | xG: 0.95-1.81

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW5 · 2026-09-19 · vs Lorient · Home+1.7 pts
Won 2-1 home from 0.9 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.3 expected.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 0.92-0.97
MW1 · 2026-08-22 · vs Stade Brestois 29 · Home+0.7 pts
Drew 2-2 home. xG: 0.7-2.7.
Score: 2-2 | xG: 0.67-2.72
MW6 · 2026-10-10 · vs Paris Saint Germain · Away+-0.3 pts
Lost 1-3 away. xG: 1.4-4.3.
Score: 1-3 | xG: 1.43-4.25

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

xPTS Gap
2 fewer points than xG simulations say they deserve
-3.1
Injury Burden
High injury burden (50 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
-2.6
Discipline
Receiving more cards than opponents - decisions going against them
-1.2
Schedule Strength
Faced weaker-than-average opponents so far
+1.1
Shot Volume Gap
Outshooting opponents but not getting the results to match
-0.9
Defensive Luck
Conceded 0.6 more goals than the 15.6 xGA opponents generated
-0.4
Finishing Luck
Scored 0.9 more goals than their 10.9 xG - clinical finishing
+0.1
Total CLS-7

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: stable|31 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Le Mans are right where they belong. Their CLS of -7 means results match performance. What you see is what you get. Their remaining schedule is moderate (opponents average 10th).

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