LE

Le Mans CURSD Luck Score

2026-27 season · 2 matches played · View Ligue 1 standings →

+2
CLS Score
8th luckiest of 18 in the Ligue 1

Le Mans are getting roughly what they deserve. 1 points vs 1.68 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

1
Points
Expected: 1.68
4
Goals Scored
xG: 3.73
5
Goals Conceded
xGA: 5.84
0.7
Points Below Expected
Unlucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 2 · 2026-08-30 · vs Rennes · away
2-3
Lost away against Rennes

One of those games where nothing went right. Le Mans created 3.06 xG worth of chances - enough for roughly 3 goals on an average day. They scored 2. The model valued this match at 1.4 points for Le Mans. They got 0. That's 1.4 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
5'Esteban Lepaul scores for Rennes (assist: Adrien Thomasson)
26'Valentin Rongier scores for Rennes (assist: Issa Soumaré)
30'Louis Mafouta scores for Le Mans (assist: Lucas Calodat)
54'Louis Mafouta scores for Le Mans
68'Djibril Sidibé (Le Mans) - Red Card
90+6'Esteban Lepaul scores for Rennes
3.06
xG Created
3.12
Opp. xG
-1.4
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW2 · 2026-08-30 · vs Rennes · Away-1.4 pts
Lost 2-3 away despite 3.1 xG. Expected 1.4 pts, got 0.
Score: 2-3 | xG: 3.06-3.12
MW1 · 2026-08-22 · vs Stade Brestois 29 · Home+0.7 pts
Drew 2-2 home. xG: 0.7-2.7.
Score: 2-2 | xG: 0.67-2.72

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW1 · 2026-08-22 · vs Stade Brestois 29 · Home+0.7 pts
Drew 2-2 home. xG: 0.7-2.7.
Score: 2-2 | xG: 0.67-2.72
MW2 · 2026-08-30 · vs Rennes · Away+-1.4 pts
Lost 2-3 away despite 3.1 xG. Expected 1.4 pts, got 0.
Score: 2-3 | xG: 3.06-3.12

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Finishing Luck
Scoring almost exactly at their 3.7 xG - neither clinical nor wasteful
+1.8
Injury Burden
Low injury burden (10 player-games missed) - squad depth available
+1.5
xPTS Gap
0.7 fewer points than xG simulations say they deserve
-1.3
Defensive Luck
Conceded 0.8 fewer goals than the 5.8 xGA opponents generated
+1
Discipline
Receiving more cards than opponents - decisions going against them
-0.6
Shot Volume Gap
Outshooting opponents but not getting the results to match
-0.4
Schedule Strength
Faced stronger-than-average opponents - a tough draw
0
Total CLS+2

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: stable|36 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Le Mans are right where they belong. Their CLS of +2 means results match performance. What you see is what you get. Their next 5 opponents average 12th in the league - a favorable stretch.

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