LOS

Los Angeles FC CURSD Luck Score

2026 Season · View mls standings →

+16
CLS Score

Los Angeles FC have had fortune smiling on them. The CLS says they're getting more than they deserve based on underlying performance. Not outrageous, but don't be surprised when the wheels start wobbling.

Data last updated Oct 20, 2018, 1:46 AM UTC

Key Stats

16
Points
Expected: 13.04
16
Goals Scored
xG: 12.67
6
Goals Conceded
xGA: 8.44
3
Points Above Expected
Lucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 8 · 2026-04-19 · vs San Jose Earthquakes · at home
1-4
Lost at home against San Jose Earthquakes

One of those games where nothing went right. The model valued this match at 1.1 points for Los Angeles FC. They got 0. That's 1.1 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
53'O. Bouda scores for San Jose Earthquakes (assist: T. Werner)
56'T. Werner scores for San Jose Earthquakes (assist: B. Leroux)
58'R. Porteous scores for San Jose Earthquakes
74'R. Roberts scores for Los Angeles FC
80'O. Bouda scores for San Jose Earthquakes (assist: N. Tsakiris)
1.04
xG Created
1.38
Opp. xG
-1.1
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW8 · 2026-04-19 · vs San Jose Earthquakes · Home-1.1 pts
Lost 1-4 home despite 1.0 xG. Expected 1.1 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-4 | xG: 1.04-1.38
MW7 · 2026-04-11 · vs Portland Timbers · Away-1.0 pts
Lost 1-2 away despite 1.0 xG. Expected 1.0 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-2 | xG: 1.03-1.52
MW5 · 2026-03-22 · vs Austin · Away-0.5 pts
Drew 0-0 away. xG: 1.1-1.0.
Score: 0-0 | xG: 1.11-0.98

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW4 · 2026-03-15 · vs St. Louis City · Home+1.9 pts
Won 2-0 home from 0.8 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.1 expected.
Score: 2-0 | xG: 0.82-1.15
MW3 · 2026-03-08 · vs FC Dallas · Home+1.8 pts
Won 1-0 home from 0.9 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.2 expected.
Score: 1-0 | xG: 0.93-1.15
MW2 · 2026-03-01 · vs Houston Dynamo · Away+0.8 pts
Won 2-0 away. xG: 1.8-0.7.
Score: 2-0 | xG: 1.83-0.69

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

xPTS Gap
3 more points than xG simulations predict they deserve
+5.7
Injury Burden
High injury burden (62 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
-4.9
Schedule Strength
Faced weaker-than-average opponents so far
+4.8
Finishing Luck
Scored 3 more goals than their 12.7 xG - clinical finishing
+3.7
Defensive Luck
Conceded 2 fewer goals than the 8.4 xGA opponents generated
+3.3
Shot Volume Gap
Getting more points than their shot dominance warrants
+2.1
Discipline
Opponents picking up more cards - refereeing luck is on their side
+1.3
Total CLS+16

Rank Per Signal

Where Los Angeles FC ranks among mls teams on each signal. #1 = most cursed.

5
Injury Burden
1
30
-4.9
22
xPTS Gap
1
30
+5.7
22
Shot Volume Gap
1
30
+2.1
23
Finishing Luck
1
30
+3.7
26
Defensive Luck
1
30
+3.3
26
Discipline
1
30
+1.3
26
Schedule Strength
1
30
+4.8

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
Dip in Form Probable
Last 5: stable|30 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Los Angeles FC are riding their luck at +16. They're winning games their underlying numbers don't fully support. The correction hasn't started yet, but historical patterns suggest it's coming.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available