Season2026
LOS

Los Angeles FC CURSD Luck Score

2026 season · 23 matches played · View mls standings →

+18
CLS Score
7th luckiest of 30 in the mls

Los Angeles FC have had fortune smiling on them. The CLS says they're getting more than they deserve based on underlying performance. Not outrageous, but don't be surprised when the wheels start wobbling. Top driver: Defensive Luck (+8.7 CLS impact). Conceded 6 fewer goals than the 28.1 xGA opponents generated

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

36
Points
Expected: 33.92
36
Goals Scored
xG: 32.44
22
Goals Conceded
xGA: 28.06
2.1
Points Above Expected
Lucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 14 · 2026-05-18 · vs Nashville SC · away
2-3
Lost away against Nashville SC

A defeat that defied the run of play. Los Angeles FC created 2.14 xG worth of chances - enough for roughly 2 goals on an average day. They scored 2. Nashville SC generated just 0.63 xG but made it count. The model valued this match at 2.4 points for Los Angeles FC. They got 0. That's 2.4 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
13'H. Mukhtar scores for Nashville SC (assist: W. Madrigal)
21'H. Mukhtar scores for Nashville SC
22'D. Martinez scores for Los Angeles FC (assist: D. Bouanga)
59'H. Mukhtar scores for Nashville SC
67'D. Bouanga scores for Los Angeles FC (assist: Son Heung-Min)
2.14
xG Created
0.63
Opp. xG
-2.4
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW14 · 2026-05-18 · vs Nashville SC · Away-2.4 pts
Lost 2-3 away despite 2.1 xG. Expected 2.3 pts, got 0.
Score: 2-3 | xG: 2.14-0.63
MW12 · 2026-05-11 · vs Houston Dynamo · Home-1.7 pts
Lost 1-4 home despite 1.2 xG. Expected 1.7 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-4 | xG: 1.21-0.81
MW13 · 2026-05-14 · vs St. Louis City · Away-1.4 pts
Lost 1-2 away despite 1.7 xG. Expected 1.4 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-2 | xG: 1.68-1.72

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW17 · 2026-07-23 · vs Real Salt Lake · Home+2.4 pts
Won 3-1 home from 1.2 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.6 expected.
Score: 3-1 | xG: 1.17-2.56
MW10 · 2026-04-25 · vs Minnesota United FC · Away+2.3 pts
Won 1-0 away from 0.8 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.7 expected.
Score: 1-0 | xG: 0.8-1.88
MW4 · 2026-03-15 · vs St. Louis City · Home+1.9 pts
Won 2-0 home from 0.8 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.1 expected.
Score: 2-0 | xG: 0.82-1.15

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Defensive Luck
Conceded 6 fewer goals than the 28.1 xGA opponents generated
+8.7
xPTS Gap
2 more points than xG simulations predict they deserve
+3.9
Discipline
Opponents picking up more cards - refereeing luck is on their side
+3.7
Finishing Luck
Scored 4 more goals than their 32.4 xG - clinical finishing
+1.5
Injury Burden
High injury burden (143 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
-1.3
Shot Volume Gap
Getting more points than their shot dominance warrants
+1.2
Schedule Strength
Faced weaker-than-average opponents so far
+0.3
Total CLS+18

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
Dip in Form Probable
Last 5: declining|15 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Los Angeles FC are riding their luck at +18. They're winning games their underlying numbers don't fully support. Recent results already show signs of the correction.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available