Season2026
LOS

Los Angeles FC CURSD Luck Score

2026 season · 15 matches played · View mls standings →

+5
CLS Score
10th luckiest of 30 in the mls

Los Angeles FC are getting roughly what they deserve. 24 points vs 23.46 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

24
Points
Expected: 23.46
24
Goals Scored
xG: 21.78
17
Goals Conceded
xGA: 16.04
0.5
Points Above Expected
Lucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 14 · 2026-05-18 · vs Nashville SC · away
2-3
Lost away against Nashville SC

A defeat that defied the run of play. Los Angeles FC created 2.14 xG worth of chances - enough for roughly 2 goals on an average day. They scored 2. Nashville SC generated just 0.63 xG but made it count. The model valued this match at 2.4 points for Los Angeles FC. They got 0. That's 2.4 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
13'H. Mukhtar scores for Nashville SC (assist: W. Madrigal)
21'H. Mukhtar scores for Nashville SC
22'D. Martinez scores for Los Angeles FC (assist: D. Bouanga)
59'H. Mukhtar scores for Nashville SC
67'D. Bouanga scores for Los Angeles FC (assist: Son Heung-Min)
2.14
xG Created
0.63
Opp. xG
-2.4
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW14 · 2026-05-18 · vs Nashville SC · Away-2.4 pts
Lost 2-3 away despite 2.1 xG. Expected 2.3 pts, got 0.
Score: 2-3 | xG: 2.14-0.63
MW12 · 2026-05-11 · vs Houston Dynamo · Home-1.7 pts
Lost 1-4 home despite 1.2 xG. Expected 1.7 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-4 | xG: 1.21-0.81
MW13 · 2026-05-14 · vs St. Louis City · Away-1.4 pts
Lost 1-2 away despite 1.7 xG. Expected 1.4 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-2 | xG: 1.68-1.72

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW10 · 2026-04-25 · vs Minnesota United FC · Away+2.3 pts
Won 1-0 away from 0.8 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.7 expected.
Score: 1-0 | xG: 0.8-1.88
MW4 · 2026-03-15 · vs St. Louis City · Home+1.9 pts
Won 2-0 home from 0.8 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.1 expected.
Score: 2-0 | xG: 0.82-1.15
MW3 · 2026-03-08 · vs FC Dallas · Home+1.8 pts
Won 1-0 home from 0.9 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.2 expected.
Score: 1-0 | xG: 0.93-1.15

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Schedule Strength
Faced weaker-than-average opponents so far
+4.2
Injury Burden
High injury burden (95 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
-3.5
Discipline
Opponents picking up more cards - refereeing luck is on their side
+1.8
Defensive Luck
Conceded 1.0 fewer goals than the 16.0 xGA opponents generated
+1.5
xPTS Gap
0.5 more points than xG simulations predict they deserve
+0.6
Shot Volume Gap
Getting more points than their shot dominance warrants
+0.6
Finishing Luck
Scored 2 fewer goals than their 21.8 xG - wasting chances
-0.2
Total CLS+5

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: declining|23 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Los Angeles FC are right where they belong. Their CLS of +5 means results match performance. What you see is what you get.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available