Season2026
LOS

Los Angeles FC CURSD Luck Score

2026 season · 12 matches played · View mls standings →

+16
CLS Score
6th luckiest of 30 in the mls

Los Angeles FC have had fortune smiling on them. The CLS says they're getting more than they deserve based on underlying performance. Not outrageous, but don't be surprised when the wheels start wobbling. Top driver: xPTS Gap (+5.8 CLS impact). 3 more points than xG simulations predict they deserve

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

21
Points
Expected: 17.77
20
Goals Scored
xG: 15.8
12
Goals Conceded
xGA: 12.39
3.2
Points Above Expected
Lucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 12 · 2026-05-11 · vs Houston Dynamo · at home
1-4
Lost at home against Houston Dynamo

One of those games where nothing went right. The model valued this match at 1.4 points for Los Angeles FC. They got 0. That's 1.4 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
25'J. McGlynn scores for Houston Dynamo (assist: L. Ennali)
34'Guilherme scores for Houston Dynamo
45'N. Ordaz scores for Los Angeles FC
51'M. Bogusz scores for Houston Dynamo
55'J. McGlynn scores for Houston Dynamo
0.94
xG Created
0.86
Opp. xG
-1.4
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW12 · 2026-05-11 · vs Houston Dynamo · Home-1.4 pts
Lost 1-4 home despite 0.9 xG. Expected 1.4 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-4 | xG: 0.94-0.86
MW8 · 2026-04-19 · vs San Jose Earthquakes · Home-1.1 pts
Lost 1-4 home despite 1.0 xG. Expected 1.1 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-4 | xG: 1.04-1.38
MW7 · 2026-04-11 · vs Portland Timbers · Away-1.0 pts
Lost 1-2 away despite 1.0 xG. Expected 1.0 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-2 | xG: 1.03-1.52

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW10 · 2026-04-25 · vs Minnesota United FC · Away+2.3 pts
Won 1-0 away from 0.8 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.7 expected.
Score: 1-0 | xG: 0.8-1.88
MW4 · 2026-03-15 · vs St. Louis City · Home+1.9 pts
Won 2-0 home from 0.8 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.1 expected.
Score: 2-0 | xG: 0.82-1.15
MW3 · 2026-03-08 · vs FC Dallas · Home+1.8 pts
Won 1-0 home from 0.9 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.2 expected.
Score: 1-0 | xG: 0.93-1.15

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

xPTS Gap
3 more points than xG simulations predict they deserve
+5.8
Finishing Luck
Scored 4 more goals than their 15.8 xG - clinical finishing
+4
Schedule Strength
Faced weaker-than-average opponents so far
+3.9
Injury Burden
High injury burden (82 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
-3.1
Shot Volume Gap
Getting more points than their shot dominance warrants
+2.2
Defensive Luck
Conceding almost exactly at the 12.4 xGA opponents generate - no defensive luck either way
+1.9
Discipline
Opponents picking up more cards - refereeing luck is on their side
+1.3
Total CLS+16

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
Dip in Form Probable
Last 5: stable|26 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Los Angeles FC are riding their luck at +16. They're winning games their underlying numbers don't fully support. The correction hasn't started yet, but historical patterns suggest it's coming.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available