MAL

Malaga CURSD Luck Score

2026-27 season · 3 matches played · View La Liga standings →

-14
CLS Score
2nd unluckiest of 20 in the La Liga

Malaga are getting roughly what they deserve. 1 points vs 2.86 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

1
Points
Expected: 2.86
1
Goals Scored
xG: 2.81
7
Goals Conceded
xGA: 4.66
1.9
Points Below Expected
Unlucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 2 · 2026-08-24 · vs Deportivo La Coruna · at home
1-1
Drew at home against Deportivo La Coruna

A draw that felt like a loss. Malaga generated 1.95 xG, comfortably more than the 1.12 their opponent managed. The model valued this match at 1.9 points for Malaga. They got 1. That's 0.9 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
21'P. Aubameyang scores for Deportivo La Coruna (assist: Cruz Luismi)
34'Chupe scores for Malaga
1.95
xG Created
1.12
Opp. xG
-0.9
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW2 · 2026-08-24 · vs Deportivo La Coruna · Home-0.9 pts
Drew 1-1 home. xG: 1.9-1.1.
Score: 1-1 | xG: 1.95-1.12
MW1 · 2026-08-19 · vs Atletico Madrid · Away-0.6 pts
Lost 0-2 away. xG: 0.1-0.9.
Score: 0-2 | xG: 0.15-0.92
MW3 · 2026-08-30 · vs Real Madrid · Away-0.4 pts
Lost 0-4 away. xG: 0.7-2.6.
Score: 0-4 | xG: 0.71-2.62

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW3 · 2026-08-30 · vs Real Madrid · Away+-0.4 pts
Lost 0-4 away. xG: 0.7-2.6.
Score: 0-4 | xG: 0.71-2.62
MW1 · 2026-08-19 · vs Atletico Madrid · Away+-0.6 pts
Lost 0-2 away. xG: 0.1-0.9.
Score: 0-2 | xG: 0.15-0.92
MW2 · 2026-08-24 · vs Deportivo La Coruna · Home+-0.9 pts
Drew 1-1 home. xG: 1.9-1.1.
Score: 1-1 | xG: 1.95-1.12

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

xPTS Gap
2 fewer points than xG simulations say they deserve
-4.1
Finishing Luck
Scored 2 fewer goals than their 2.8 xG - wasting chances
-3.6
Defensive Luck
Conceded 2 more goals than the 4.7 xGA opponents generated
-3.3
Shot Volume Gap
Outshooting opponents but not getting the results to match
-2.2
Injury Burden
High injury burden (21 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
-0.8
Discipline
Receiving more cards than opponents - decisions going against them
0
Schedule Strength
Faced stronger-than-average opponents - a tough draw
0
Total CLS-14

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: stable|35 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Malaga are right where they belong. Their CLS of -14 means results match performance. What you see is what you get. Their next 5 opponents average 14th in the league - a favorable stretch.

Next Matches
09-06
H
Levante
Bet
09-13
A
Celta Vigo
Bet
09-17
H
Villarreal
Bet
09-20
A
Getafe
Bet
10-11
H
Espanyol
Bet