MAL

Malaga CURSD Luck Score

2026-27 season · 9 matches played · View La Liga standings →

-23
CLS Score
2nd unluckiest of 20 in the La Liga

Malaga can't catch a break. 4 points when the data says they deserve closer to 8.01? 5 losses, many of them undeserved based on the chances created. The numbers say better days are coming. Top driver: Injury Burden (-10.5 CLS impact). High injury burden (89 player-games missed) - key absences hurting

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

4
Points
Expected: 8.01
6
Goals Scored
xG: 7.78
18
Goals Conceded
xGA: 15.17
4
Points Below Expected
Unlucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 7 · 2026-09-20 · vs Getafe · away
0-1
Lost away against Getafe

One of those games where nothing went right. The model valued this match at 0.9 points for Malaga. They got 0. That's 0.9 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
85'I. Azon scores for Getafe (assist: M. Satriano)
0.52
xG Created
0.95
Opp. xG
-0.9
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW7 · 2026-09-20 · vs Getafe · Away-0.9 pts
Lost 0-1 away. xG: 0.5-0.9.
Score: 0-1 | xG: 0.52-0.95
MW2 · 2026-08-24 · vs Deportivo La Coruna · Home-0.9 pts
Drew 1-1 home. xG: 1.9-1.1.
Score: 1-1 | xG: 1.95-1.12
MW4 · 2026-09-06 · vs Levante · Home-0.8 pts
Drew 0-0 home. xG: 1.5-0.8.
Score: 0-0 | xG: 1.46-0.81

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW5 · 2026-09-13 · vs Celta Vigo · Away+0.6 pts
Drew 1-1 away. xG: 0.4-1.9.
Score: 1-1 | xG: 0.43-1.9
MW8 · 2026-10-09 · vs Espanyol · Home+-0.0 pts
Drew 1-1 home. xG: 0.7-1.1.
Score: 1-1 | xG: 0.69-1.08
MW6 · 2026-09-17 · vs Villarreal · Home+-0.2 pts
Lost 1-3 home. xG: 0.6-3.3.
Score: 1-3 | xG: 0.63-3.33

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Injury Burden
High injury burden (89 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
-10.5
xPTS Gap
4 fewer points than xG simulations say they deserve
-6.8
Schedule Strength
Faced weaker-than-average opponents so far
+5.5
Shot Volume Gap
Outshooting opponents but not getting the results to match
-4.2
Finishing Luck
Scored 2 fewer goals than their 7.8 xG - wasting chances
-3.8
Defensive Luck
Conceded 3 more goals than the 15.2 xGA opponents generated
-2.9
Discipline
Receiving more cards than opponents - decisions going against them
-0.3
Total CLS-23

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
Improvement Probable
Last 5: stable|29 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

At -23, Malaga are meaningfully unlucky. They're roughly 4 points below where their performance says they deserve to be. The underlying quality is there - results are expected to follow as luck normalizes.

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