Season

Mallorca CURSD Luck Score

2025-26 season · 37 matches played · View La Liga standings →

+21

CLS Score

6th luckiest of 20 in the La Liga

Mallorca have had fortune smiling on them. The CLS says they're getting more than they deserve based on underlying performance. Not outrageous, but don't be surprised when the wheels start wobbling. Top driver: Schedule Strength (+10.1 CLS impact). Faced weaker-than-average opponents so far

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Points

Expected: 37.62

Goals Scored

xG: 40.61

Goals Conceded

xGA: 62.4

1.4

Points Above Expected

Lucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match

Matchweek 26 · 2026-02-28 · vs Real Sociedad · at home

0-1

Lost at home against Real Sociedad

One of those games where nothing went right. Real Sociedad created almost nothing - just 0.43 xG - but scored 1 goal. The model valued this match at 1.5 points for Mallorca. They got 0. That's 1.5 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline

36'C. Soler scores for Real Sociedad

0.66

xG Created

0.43

Opp. xG

-1.5

Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW26 · 2026-02-28 · vs Real Sociedad · Home-1.5 pts

Lost 0-1 home despite 0.7 xG. Expected 1.5 pts, got 0.

Score: 0-1 | xG: 0.66-0.43

MW4 · 2025-09-15 · vs Espanyol · Away-1.3 pts

Lost 2-3 away despite 2.2 xG. Expected 1.3 pts, got 0.

Score: 2-3 | xG: 2.23-2.46

MW29 · 2026-03-21 · vs Elche · Away-1.2 pts

Lost 1-2 away despite 1.4 xG. Expected 1.2 pts, got 0.

Score: 1-2 | xG: 1.37-1.6

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW34 · 2026-05-01 · vs Girona · Away+2.0 pts

Won 1-0 away from 1.1 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.0 expected.

Score: 1-0 | xG: 1.09-1.72

MW31 · 2026-04-12 · vs Rayo Vallecano · Home+1.8 pts

Won 3-0 home from 1.7 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.2 expected.

Score: 3-0 | xG: 1.68-1.95

MW7 · 2025-09-27 · vs Alaves · Home+1.7 pts

Won 1-0 home from 0.7 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.3 expected.

Score: 1-0 | xG: 0.74-0.78

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Schedule Strength

Faced weaker-than-average opponents so far

+10.1

Defensive Luck

Conceded 5 fewer goals than the 62.4 xGA opponents generated

+6.1

Finishing Luck

Scored 3 more goals than their 40.6 xG - clinical finishing

+5.9

Injury Burden

High injury burden (167 player-games missed) - key absences hurting

-2.3

xPTS Gap

1 more points than xG simulations predict they deserve

+2.1

Shot Volume Gap

Outshooting opponents but not getting the results to match

-1.9

Discipline

Opponents picking up more cards - refereeing luck is on their side

Total CLS+21

Rivalry Check

How are the rivals doing?

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook

Dip in Form Probable

Last 5: stable|1 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds

Why?

Mallorca are riding their luck at +21. They're winning games their underlying numbers don't fully support. The correction hasn't started yet, but historical patterns suggest it's coming.

Next Matches

05-23

Oviedo

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