Mallorca

Mallorca CURSD Luck Score

2025-26 Season · View La Liga standings →

+27
CLS Score

Mallorca have had fortune smiling on them. The CLS says they're getting more than they deserve based on underlying performance. Not outrageous, but don't be surprised when the wheels start wobbling.

Data last updated Oct 20, 2018, 1:46 AM UTC

Key Stats

34
Points
Expected: 32.14
39
Goals Scored
xG: 34.99
48
Goals Conceded
xGA: 52.64
1.9
Points Above Expected
Lucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 26 · 2026-02-28 · vs Real Sociedad · at home
0-1
Lost at home against Real Sociedad

One of those games where nothing went right. Real Sociedad created almost nothing - just 0.43 xG - but scored 1 goal. The model valued this match at 1.5 points for Mallorca. They got 0. That's 1.5 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
36'C. Soler scores for Real Sociedad
0.66
xG Created
0.43
Opp. xG
-1.5
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW26 · 2026-02-28 · vs Real Sociedad · Home-1.5 pts
Lost 0-1 home despite 0.7 xG. Expected 1.5 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-1 | xG: 0.66-0.43
MW4 · 2025-09-15 · vs Espanyol · Away-1.3 pts
Lost 2-3 away despite 2.2 xG. Expected 1.3 pts, got 0.
Score: 2-3 | xG: 2.23-2.46
MW29 · 2026-03-21 · vs Elche · Away-1.2 pts
Lost 1-2 away despite 1.4 xG. Expected 1.2 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-2 | xG: 1.37-1.6

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW31 · 2026-04-12 · vs Rayo Vallecano · Home+1.8 pts
Won 3-0 home from 1.7 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.2 expected.
Score: 3-0 | xG: 1.68-1.95
MW7 · 2025-09-27 · vs Alaves · Home+1.7 pts
Won 1-0 home from 0.7 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.3 expected.
Score: 1-0 | xG: 0.74-0.78
MW30 · 2026-04-04 · vs Real Madrid · Home+1.7 pts
Won 2-1 home from 1.2 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.3 expected.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 1.22-1.28

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Schedule Strength
Faced weaker-than-average opponents so far
+8.9
Finishing Luck
Scored 4 more goals than their 35.0 xG - clinical finishing
+7.4
Defensive Luck
Conceded 5 fewer goals than the 52.6 xGA opponents generated
+4.9
xPTS Gap
2 more points than xG simulations predict they deserve
+3.2
Injury Burden
Low injury burden (116 player-games missed) - squad depth available
+2.1
Discipline
Opponents picking up more cards - refereeing luck is on their side
+0.6
Shot Volume Gap
Outshooting opponents but not getting the results to match
-0.1
Total CLS+27

Rank Per Signal

Where Mallorca ranks among La Liga teams on each signal. #1 = most cursed.

12
Shot Volume Gap
1
20
-0.1
12
Injury Burden
1
20
+2.1
13
Discipline
1
20
+0.6
15
xPTS Gap
1
20
+3.2
15
Finishing Luck
1
20
+7.4
17
Defensive Luck
1
20
+4.9
18
Schedule Strength
1
20
+8.9

Rivalry Check

How are the rivals doing?

Espanyol
Espanyol
10W-8D-13L
+5Neutral
#11 in league

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
Dip in Form Probable
Last 5: improving|7 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Mallorca are riding their luck at +27. They're winning games their underlying numbers don't fully support. The correction hasn't started yet, but historical patterns suggest it's coming.

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