Espanyol

Espanyol Luck Index

2025-26 Season · View La Liga standings →

+7

Luck Index Score

Espanyol are getting roughly what they deserve. 37 points vs 38.32 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.

728 x 90ADVERTISEMENT

37

Points

Expected: 38.32

36

Goals Scored

xG: 38.83

44

Goals Conceded

xGA: 40.27

1.3

Points Below Expected

Unlucky gap

Luck Index Evolution

How the Luck Index has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match

Matchweek 6 · 2025-09-23 · vs Valencia · at home

2-2

Drew at home against Valencia

A draw that felt like a loss. Espanyol created 2.57 xG worth of chances - enough for roughly 3 goals on an average day. They scored 2. Valencia generated just 0.74 xG but made it count. The model valued this match at 2.4 points for Espanyol. They got 1. That's 1.4 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline

15'P. Lozano scores for Espanyol (assist: C. Riedel)

54'Cucho Hernandez scores for Real Betis (assist: R. Rodriguez)

63'A. Ezzalzouli scores for Real Betis (assist: P. Fornals)

2.57

xG Created

0.74

Opp. xG

-1.4

Pts Lost

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW8 · 2025-10-05 · vs Real Betis · Home-1.9 pts

Lost 1-2 home despite 2.3 xG. Expected 1.9 pts, got 0.

Score: 1-2 | xG: 2.28-1.4

MW29 · 2026-03-21 · vs Getafe · Home-1.5 pts

Lost 1-2 home despite 1.8 xG. Expected 1.5 pts, got 0.

Score: 1-2 | xG: 1.75-1.51

MW6 · 2025-09-23 · vs Valencia · Home-1.4 pts

Drew 2-2 home despite 2.6 xG. Expected 2.4 pts, got 1.

Score: 2-2 | xG: 2.57-0.74

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW17 · 2025-12-22 · vs Athletic Club · Away+2.1 pts

Won 2-1 away from 0.9 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.9 expected.

Score: 2-1 | xG: 0.9-1.59

MW13 · 2025-11-24 · vs Sevilla · Home+2.1 pts

Won 2-1 home from 1.1 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.9 expected.

Score: 2-1 | xG: 1.09-1.82

MW14 · 2025-11-30 · vs Celta Vigo · Away+2.0 pts

Won 1-0 away from 0.4 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.0 expected.

Score: 1-0 | xG: 0.38-0.63

What's Driving the Luck Index

Each factor's contribution to the Luck Index score. These add up to the total.

Injury Burden

Low injury burden (52 player-games missed) - squad depth available

+15

Defensive Luck

Conceded 4 more goals than the 40.3 xGA opponents generated

-8

Schedule Strength

Faced weaker-than-average opponents so far

+8

Finishing Luck

Scored 3 fewer goals than their 38.8 xG - wasting chances

-4

xPTS Gap

1 fewer points than xG simulations say they deserve

-3

Shot Volume Gap

Outshooting opponents but not getting the results to match

-2

Discipline

Opponents picking up more cards - refereeing luck is on their side

+1

Total Luck Index+7

Rivalry Check

How are the rivals doing?

Barcelona

Real Madrid

What to Expect Next

Regression Outlook

No Significant Regression Expected

Last 5: declining|9 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

Why?

Espanyol are right where they belong. Their Luck Index of +7 means results match performance. What you see is what you get.

Next Matches

04-04

A

Real Betis

04-11

A

Barcelona

04-22

A

Rayo Vallecano

04-25

H

Levante

05-03

H

Real Madrid

728 x 90ADVERTISEMENT