Espanyol

Espanyol CURSD Luck Score

2025-26 Season · View La Liga standings →

+5
CLS Score

Espanyol are getting roughly what they deserve. 38 points vs 39.29 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.

Data last updated Oct 20, 2018, 1:46 AM UTC

Key Stats

38
Points
Expected: 39.29
37
Goals Scored
xG: 40.2
48
Goals Conceded
xGA: 44.46
1.3
Points Below Expected
Unlucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 8 · 2025-10-05 · vs Real Betis · at home
1-2
Lost at home against Real Betis

One of those games where nothing went right. Espanyol created 2.28 xG worth of chances - enough for roughly 2 goals on an average day. They scored 1. The model valued this match at 1.9 points for Espanyol. They got 0. That's 1.9 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
15'P. Lozano scores for Espanyol (assist: C. Riedel)
54'Cucho Hernandez scores for Real Betis (assist: R. Rodriguez)
63'A. Ezzalzouli scores for Real Betis (assist: P. Fornals)
2.28
xG Created
1.4
Opp. xG
-1.9
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW8 · 2025-10-05 · vs Real Betis · Home-1.9 pts
Lost 1-2 home despite 2.3 xG. Expected 1.9 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-2 | xG: 2.28-1.4
MW29 · 2026-03-21 · vs Getafe · Home-1.5 pts
Lost 1-2 home despite 1.8 xG. Expected 1.5 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-2 | xG: 1.75-1.51
MW6 · 2025-09-23 · vs Valencia · Home-1.4 pts
Drew 2-2 home despite 2.6 xG. Expected 2.4 pts, got 1.
Score: 2-2 | xG: 2.57-0.74

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW17 · 2025-12-22 · vs Athletic Club · Away+2.1 pts
Won 2-1 away from 0.9 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.9 expected.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 0.9-1.59
MW13 · 2025-11-24 · vs Sevilla · Home+2.1 pts
Won 2-1 home from 1.1 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.9 expected.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 1.09-1.82
MW14 · 2025-11-30 · vs Celta Vigo · Away+2.0 pts
Won 1-0 away from 0.4 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.0 expected.
Score: 1-0 | xG: 0.38-0.63

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Injury Burden
Low injury burden (52 player-games missed) - squad depth available
+13.3
Defensive Luck
Conceded 4 more goals than the 44.5 xGA opponents generated
-5
Schedule Strength
Faced weaker-than-average opponents so far
+4.7
Finishing Luck
Scored 3 fewer goals than their 40.2 xG - wasting chances
-3.9
xPTS Gap
1 fewer points than xG simulations say they deserve
-2.1
Shot Volume Gap
Outshooting opponents but not getting the results to match
-1.9
Discipline
Receiving more cards than opponents - decisions going against them
-0.1
Total CLS+5

Rank Per Signal

Where Espanyol ranks among La Liga teams on each signal. #1 = most cursed.

4
Defensive Luck
1
20
-5
7
Finishing Luck
1
20
-3.9
9
Shot Volume Gap
1
20
-1.9
10
xPTS Gap
1
20
-2.1
11
Discipline
1
20
-0.1
16
Schedule Strength
1
20
+4.7
20
Injury Burden
1
20
+13.3

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: declining|7 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Espanyol are right where they belong. Their CLS of +5 means results match performance. What you see is what you get. Their remaining schedule is moderate (opponents average 12th).

Next Matches
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05-03
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05-09
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05-13
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