Espanyol

Espanyol CURSD Luck Score

2025-26 season · 37 matches played · View La Liga standings →

+11
CLS Score
8th luckiest of 20 in the La Liga

Espanyol are getting roughly what they deserve. 45 points vs 45.49 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

45
Points
Expected: 45.49
42
Goals Scored
xG: 46.1
54
Goals Conceded
xGA: 53.08
0.5
Points Below Expected
Unlucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 8 · 2025-10-05 · vs Real Betis · at home
1-2
Lost at home against Real Betis

One of those games where nothing went right. Espanyol created 2.28 xG worth of chances - enough for roughly 2 goals on an average day. They scored 1. The model valued this match at 1.9 points for Espanyol. They got 0. That's 1.9 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
15'P. Lozano scores for Espanyol (assist: C. Riedel)
54'Cucho Hernandez scores for Real Betis (assist: R. Rodriguez)
63'A. Ezzalzouli scores for Real Betis (assist: P. Fornals)
2.28
xG Created
1.4
Opp. xG
-1.9
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW8 · 2025-10-05 · vs Real Betis · Home-1.9 pts
Lost 1-2 home despite 2.3 xG. Expected 1.9 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-2 | xG: 2.28-1.4
MW32 · 2026-04-23 · vs Rayo Vallecano · Away-1.6 pts
Lost 0-1 away despite 2.0 xG. Expected 1.6 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-1 | xG: 1.96-1.6
MW29 · 2026-03-21 · vs Getafe · Home-1.5 pts
Lost 1-2 home despite 1.8 xG. Expected 1.5 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-2 | xG: 1.75-1.51

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW37 · 2026-05-17 · vs Osasuna · Away+2.3 pts
Won 2-1 away from 0.8 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.7 expected.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 0.79-1.72
MW17 · 2025-12-22 · vs Athletic Club · Away+2.1 pts
Won 2-1 away from 0.9 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.9 expected.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 0.9-1.59
MW13 · 2025-11-24 · vs Sevilla · Home+2.1 pts
Won 2-1 home from 1.1 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.9 expected.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 1.09-1.82

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Injury Burden
Low injury burden (74 player-games missed) - squad depth available
+14.6
Schedule Strength
Faced weaker-than-average opponents so far
+7.7
Finishing Luck
Scored 4 fewer goals than their 46.1 xG - wasting chances
-6.1
Shot Volume Gap
Outshooting opponents but not getting the results to match
-1.9
Defensive Luck
Conceded 0.9 more goals than the 53.1 xGA opponents generated
-1.5
xPTS Gap
Almost exactly on expected points (0.5 xPTS gap)
-1
Discipline
Receiving more cards than opponents - decisions going against them
-0.8
Total CLS+11

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: improving|1 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Espanyol are right where they belong. Their CLS of +11 means results match performance. What you see is what you get.

Next Matches
05-23
H
Real Sociedad
Bet