Espanyol

Espanyol CURSD Luck Score

2026-27 season · 7 matches played · View La Liga standings →

-4
CLS Score
10th unluckiest of 20 in the La Liga

Espanyol are getting roughly what they deserve. 7 points vs 9.44 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

7
Points
Expected: 9.44
10
Goals Scored
xG: 8.57
10
Goals Conceded
xGA: 9.52
2.4
Points Below Expected
Unlucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 6 · 2026-09-15 · vs Rayo Vallecano · away
1-2
Lost away against Rayo Vallecano

One of those games where nothing went right. Espanyol generated 1.49 xG, comfortably more than the 1.52 their opponent managed. The model valued this match at 1.4 points for Espanyol. They got 0. That's 1.4 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
3'A. Garcia scores for Rayo Vallecano
26'A. Pedrosa scores for Rayo Vallecano (assist: A. Garcia)
54'R. Fernandez Jaen scores for Espanyol (assist: J. Hernandez)
90+8'Omar El Hilali (Espanyol) - Red Card
1.49
xG Created
1.52
Opp. xG
-1.4
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW6 · 2026-09-15 · vs Rayo Vallecano · Away-1.4 pts
Lost 1-2 away despite 1.5 xG. Expected 1.4 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-2 | xG: 1.49-1.52
MW7 · 2026-09-18 · vs Elche · Home-1.0 pts
Lost 1-3 home. xG: 1.1-1.6.
Score: 1-3 | xG: 1.05-1.61
MW4 · 2026-09-06 · vs Sevilla · Home-0.9 pts
Drew 1-1 home. xG: 1.2-0.5.
Score: 1-1 | xG: 1.23-0.53

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW5 · 2026-09-12 · vs Osasuna · Away+1.4 pts
Won 2-0 away from 1.4 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.6 expected.
Score: 2-0 | xG: 1.43-1.05
MW1 · 2026-08-16 · vs Levante · Home+0.7 pts
Won 3-0 home. xG: 1.6-0.3.
Score: 3-0 | xG: 1.55-0.28
MW2 · 2026-08-22 · vs Real Madrid · Home+-0.5 pts
Lost 1-2 home. xG: 1.1-2.7.
Score: 1-2 | xG: 1.05-2.71

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

xPTS Gap
2 fewer points than xG simulations say they deserve
-4.4
Shot Volume Gap
Outshooting opponents but not getting the results to match
-2.4
Finishing Luck
Scored 1 more goals than their 8.6 xG - clinical finishing
+1.9
Schedule Strength
Faced weaker-than-average opponents so far
+1.8
Discipline
Receiving more cards than opponents - decisions going against them
-0.4
Injury Burden
High injury burden (33 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
-0.4
Defensive Luck
Conceding almost exactly at the 9.5 xGA opponents generate - no defensive luck either way
-0.1
Total CLS-4

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: declining|31 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Espanyol are right where they belong. Their CLS of -4 means results match performance. What you see is what you get. Their remaining schedule is moderate (opponents average 11th).

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