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Minnesota United FC CURSD Luck Score

2026 season · 15 matches played · View mls standings →

-15
CLS Score
6th unluckiest of 30 in the mls

Minnesota United FC are getting roughly what they deserve. 22 points vs 22.86 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one. Top driver: Finishing Luck (-10.8 CLS impact). Scored 5 fewer goals than their 22.7 xG - wasting chances

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

22
Points
Expected: 22.86
18
Goals Scored
xG: 22.7
22
Goals Conceded
xGA: 20.74
0.9
Points Below Expected
Unlucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 10 · 2026-04-25 · vs Los Angeles FC · at home
0-1
Lost at home against Los Angeles FC

A shutout loss that the numbers say should never have happened. Minnesota United FC generated 1.88 xG, comfortably more than the 0.8 their opponent managed. Los Angeles FC generated just 0.8 xG but made it count. The model valued this match at 2.1 points for Minnesota United FC. They got 0. That's 2.1 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
9'D. Martinez scores for Los Angeles FC (assist: T. Tillman)
1.88
xG Created
0.8
Opp. xG
-2.1
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW10 · 2026-04-25 · vs Los Angeles FC · Home-2.1 pts
Lost 0-1 home despite 1.9 xG. Expected 2.1 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-1 | xG: 1.88-0.8
MW13 · 2026-05-14 · vs Colorado Rapids · Home-1.8 pts
Lost 0-1 home despite 1.2 xG. Expected 1.8 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-1 | xG: 1.16-0.64
MW14 · 2026-05-16 · vs New England Revolution · Away-1.4 pts
Lost 1-2 away despite 1.8 xG. Expected 1.4 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-2 | xG: 1.81-1.75

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW6 · 2026-04-05 · vs Los Angeles Galaxy · Away+2.0 pts
Won 2-1 away from 1.4 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.0 expected.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 1.41-2.03
MW11 · 2026-05-02 · vs Columbus Crew · Away+1.5 pts
Won 3-2 away from 1.2 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.5 expected.
Score: 3-2 | xG: 1.22-1.02
MW9 · 2026-04-23 · vs FC Dallas · Away+1.4 pts
Won 1-0 away from 1.0 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.6 expected.
Score: 1-0 | xG: 1.03-0.72

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Finishing Luck
Scored 5 fewer goals than their 22.7 xG - wasting chances
-10.8
Schedule Strength
Faced stronger-than-average opponents - a tough draw
-4.6
xPTS Gap
0.9 fewer points than xG simulations say they deserve
-1.9
Defensive Luck
Conceded 1 fewer goals than the 20.7 xGA opponents generated
+1
Injury Burden
Low injury burden (76 player-games missed) - squad depth available
+0.9
Shot Volume Gap
Getting more points than their shot dominance warrants
+0.2
Discipline
Opponents picking up more cards - refereeing luck is on their side
+0.2
Total CLS-15

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
Improvement Probable
Last 5: declining|23 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

At -15, Minnesota United FC are meaningfully unlucky. They're roughly 1 points below where their performance says they deserve to be. The underlying quality is there - results are expected to follow as luck normalizes.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available