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Minnesota United FC CURSD Luck Score

2026 season · 12 matches played · View mls standings →

0
CLS Score
12th luckiest of 30 in the mls

Minnesota United FC are getting roughly what they deserve. 21 points vs 17.87 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

21
Points
Expected: 17.87
16
Goals Scored
xG: 18.87
18
Goals Conceded
xGA: 18.02
3.1
Points Above Expected
Lucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 10 · 2026-04-25 · vs Los Angeles FC · at home
0-1
Lost at home against Los Angeles FC

A shutout loss that the numbers say should never have happened. Minnesota United FC generated 1.88 xG, comfortably more than the 0.8 their opponent managed. Los Angeles FC generated just 0.8 xG but made it count. The model valued this match at 2.1 points for Minnesota United FC. They got 0. That's 2.1 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
9'D. Martinez scores for Los Angeles FC (assist: T. Tillman)
1.88
xG Created
0.8
Opp. xG
-2.1
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW10 · 2026-04-25 · vs Los Angeles FC · Home-2.1 pts
Lost 0-1 home despite 1.9 xG. Expected 2.1 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-1 | xG: 1.88-0.8
MW12 · 2026-05-10 · vs Austin · Home-0.9 pts
Drew 2-2 home. xG: 2.2-1.3.
Score: 2-2 | xG: 2.2-1.32
MW3 · 2026-03-08 · vs Nashville SC · Away-0.8 pts
Lost 1-3 away. xG: 0.9-1.8.
Score: 1-3 | xG: 0.92-1.75

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW6 · 2026-04-05 · vs Los Angeles Galaxy · Away+2.0 pts
Won 2-1 away from 1.4 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.0 expected.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 1.41-2.03
MW11 · 2026-05-02 · vs Columbus Crew · Away+1.5 pts
Won 3-2 away from 1.2 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.5 expected.
Score: 3-2 | xG: 1.22-1.02
MW9 · 2026-04-23 · vs FC Dallas · Away+1.4 pts
Won 1-0 away from 1.0 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.6 expected.
Score: 1-0 | xG: 1.03-0.72

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Finishing Luck
Scored 3 fewer goals than their 18.9 xG - wasting chances
-4.2
xPTS Gap
3 more points than xG simulations predict they deserve
+3.3
Schedule Strength
Faced stronger-than-average opponents - a tough draw
-2.6
Shot Volume Gap
Getting more points than their shot dominance warrants
+1.4
Injury Burden
Low injury burden (60 player-games missed) - squad depth available
+1.2
Defensive Luck
Conceding almost exactly at the 18.0 xGA opponents generate - no defensive luck either way
+1
Discipline
Receiving more cards than opponents - decisions going against them
-0.1
Total CLS0

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: stable|26 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Minnesota United FC are right where they belong. Their CLS of 0 means results match performance. What you see is what you get.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available