MIN

Minnesota United FC CURSD Luck Score

2026 Season · View mls standings →

+5
CLS Score

Minnesota United FC are getting roughly what they deserve. 14 points vs 10.75 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.

Data last updated Oct 20, 2018, 1:46 AM UTC

Key Stats

14
Points
Expected: 10.75
10
Goals Scored
xG: 12.54
13
Goals Conceded
xGA: 14.16
3.3
Points Above Expected
Lucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 3 · 2026-03-08 · vs Nashville SC · away
1-3
Lost away against Nashville SC

One of those games where nothing went right. The model valued this match at 0.8 points for Minnesota United FC. They got 0. That's 0.8 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
26'S. Surridge scores for Nashville SC (assist: P. Yazbek)
33'C. Espinoza scores for Nashville SC
35'N. Triantis scores for Minnesota United FC (assist: J. Pereyra)
47'S. Surridge scores for Nashville SC (assist: P. Yazbek)
0.92
xG Created
1.75
Opp. xG
-0.8
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW3 · 2026-03-08 · vs Nashville SC · Away-0.8 pts
Lost 1-3 away. xG: 0.9-1.8.
Score: 1-3 | xG: 0.92-1.75
MW5 · 2026-03-22 · vs Seattle Sounders · Home-0.6 pts
Drew 0-0 home. xG: 1.0-0.6.
Score: 0-0 | xG: 0.97-0.64
MW1 · 2026-02-22 · vs Austin · Away-0.3 pts
Drew 2-2 away. xG: 1.6-1.7.
Score: 2-2 | xG: 1.63-1.71

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW6 · 2026-04-05 · vs Los Angeles Galaxy · Away+2.0 pts
Won 2-1 away from 1.4 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.0 expected.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 1.41-2.03
MW7 · 2026-04-12 · vs San Diego · Away+1.3 pts
Won 2-1 away from 2.2 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.7 expected.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 2.17-1.57
MW8 · 2026-04-19 · vs Portland Timbers · Home+1.1 pts
Won 2-0 home from 2.5 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.9 expected.
Score: 2-0 | xG: 2.45-1.54

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

xPTS Gap
3 more points than xG simulations predict they deserve
+6.6
Finishing Luck
Scored 3 fewer goals than their 12.5 xG - wasting chances
-6.3
Injury Burden
Low injury burden (28 player-games missed) - squad depth available
+3.8
Schedule Strength
Faced stronger-than-average opponents - a tough draw
-3.7
Defensive Luck
Conceded 1 fewer goals than the 14.2 xGA opponents generated
+2.3
Shot Volume Gap
Getting more points than their shot dominance warrants
+2.1
Discipline
Opponents picking up more cards - refereeing luck is on their side
+0.2
Total CLS+5

Rank Per Signal

Where Minnesota United FC ranks among mls teams on each signal. #1 = most cursed.

5
Finishing Luck
1
30
-6.3
7
Schedule Strength
1
30
-3.7
16
Discipline
1
30
+0.2
22
Defensive Luck
1
30
+2.3
22
Shot Volume Gap
1
30
+2.1
25
Injury Burden
1
30
+3.8
26
xPTS Gap
1
30
+6.6

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: improving|30 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Minnesota United FC are right where they belong. Their CLS of +5 means results match performance. What you see is what you get.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available