Season2026
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Minnesota United FC CURSD Luck Score

2026 season · 28 matches played · View mls standings →

-36
CLS Score
3rd unluckiest of 30 in the mls

Minnesota United FC can't catch a break. 30 points when the data says they deserve closer to 39.84? 12 losses, many of them undeserved based on the chances created. The numbers say better days are coming. Top driver: xPTS Gap (-20.1 CLS impact). 10 fewer points than xG simulations say they deserve

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

30
Points
Expected: 39.84
42
Goals Scored
xG: 41.59
51
Goals Conceded
xGA: 40.52
9.8
Points Below Expected
Unlucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 20 · 2026-08-20 · vs Atlanta United FC · at home
1-2
Lost at home against Atlanta United FC

A defeat that defied the run of play. Minnesota United FC created 2.11 xG worth of chances - enough for roughly 2 goals on an average day. They scored 1. Atlanta United FC generated just 0.95 xG but made it count. The model valued this match at 2.1 points for Minnesota United FC. They got 0. That's 2.1 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
37'T. Jacob scores for Atlanta United FC
58'A. Markanich scores for Minnesota United FC
78'T. Muyumba scores for Atlanta United FC (assist: A. Miranchuk)
2.11
xG Created
0.95
Opp. xG
-2.1
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW20 · 2026-08-20 · vs Atlanta United FC · Home-2.1 pts
Lost 1-2 home despite 2.1 xG. Expected 2.1 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-2 | xG: 2.11-0.95
MW10 · 2026-04-25 · vs Los Angeles FC · Home-2.1 pts
Lost 0-1 home despite 1.9 xG. Expected 2.1 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-1 | xG: 1.88-0.8
MW16 · 2026-07-23 · vs Sporting Kansas City · Away-1.8 pts
Lost 1-2 away despite 1.8 xG. Expected 1.8 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-2 | xG: 1.84-1.14

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW6 · 2026-04-05 · vs Los Angeles Galaxy · Away+2.0 pts
Won 2-1 away from 1.4 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.0 expected.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 1.41-2.03
MW21 · 2026-08-23 · vs San Jose Earthquakes · Away+1.5 pts
Won 5-1 away from 2.0 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.5 expected.
Score: 5-1 | xG: 2-1.84
MW11 · 2026-05-02 · vs Columbus Crew · Away+1.5 pts
Won 3-2 away from 1.2 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.5 expected.
Score: 3-2 | xG: 1.22-1.02

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

xPTS Gap
10 fewer points than xG simulations say they deserve
-20.1
Shot Volume Gap
Outshooting opponents but not getting the results to match
-7
Finishing Luck
Scoring almost exactly at their 41.6 xG - neither clinical nor wasteful
-6.9
Injury Burden
Low injury burden (147 player-games missed) - squad depth available
+3.8
Defensive Luck
Conceded 10 more goals than the 40.5 xGA opponents generated
-2.2
Schedule Strength
Faced stronger-than-average opponents - a tough draw
-1.9
Discipline
Receiving more cards than opponents - decisions going against them
-1.7
Total CLS-36

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
Improvement Probable
Last 5: declining|10 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

At -36, Minnesota United FC are meaningfully unlucky. They're roughly 10 points below where their performance says they deserve to be. The underlying quality is there - results are expected to follow as luck normalizes.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available