MON

Monza CURSD Luck Score

2026-27 season · 2 matches played · View Serie A standings →

-12
CLS Score
2nd unluckiest of 20 in the Serie A

Monza are getting roughly what they deserve. 0 points vs 3.36 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

0
Points
Expected: 3.36
3
Goals Scored
xG: 2.93
7
Goals Conceded
xGA: 2.03
3.4
Points Below Expected
Unlucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 2 · 2026-08-29 · vs Udinese · at home
2-3
Lost at home against Udinese

One of those games where nothing went right. Monza generated 1.7 xG, comfortably more than the 0.98 their opponent managed. The model valued this match at 1.9 points for Monza. They got 0. That's 1.9 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
32'J. Piotrowski scores for Udinese (assist: H. Kamara)
37'A. Colpani scores for Monza (assist: R. Mangas)
45'H. Kamara scores for Udinese
45'J. Ekkelenkamp scores for Udinese
63'G. Varela scores for Monza (assist: E. Akinsanmiro)
1.7
xG Created
0.98
Opp. xG
-1.9
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW2 · 2026-08-29 · vs Udinese · Home-1.9 pts
Lost 2-3 home despite 1.7 xG. Expected 1.9 pts, got 0.
Score: 2-3 | xG: 1.7-0.98
MW1 · 2026-08-22 · vs Inter · Away-1.5 pts
Lost 1-4 away despite 1.2 xG. Expected 1.5 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-4 | xG: 1.23-1.05

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW1 · 2026-08-22 · vs Inter · Away+-1.5 pts
Lost 1-4 away despite 1.2 xG. Expected 1.5 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-4 | xG: 1.23-1.05
MW2 · 2026-08-29 · vs Udinese · Home+-1.9 pts
Lost 2-3 home despite 1.7 xG. Expected 1.9 pts, got 0.
Score: 2-3 | xG: 1.7-0.98

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

xPTS Gap
3 fewer points than xG simulations say they deserve
-5.1
Defensive Luck
Conceded 5 more goals than the 2.0 xGA opponents generated
-4.4
Shot Volume Gap
Outshooting opponents but not getting the results to match
-1.7
Discipline
Receiving more cards than opponents - decisions going against them
-0.4
Injury Burden
High injury burden (13 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
-0.3
Finishing Luck
Scoring almost exactly at their 2.9 xG - neither clinical nor wasteful
-0.1
Schedule Strength
Faced stronger-than-average opponents - a tough draw
0
Total CLS-12

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: declining|36 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Monza are right where they belong. Their CLS of -12 means results match performance. What you see is what you get. Their remaining schedule is moderate (opponents average 11th).

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