Season2026
NAS

Nashville SC CURSD Luck Score

2026 season · 14 matches played · View mls standings →

+59
CLS Score
1st luckiest of 30 in the mls

Nashville SC have been living on borrowed time. 33 points from 20.25 expected? They're riding a wave of fortune that the data says won't last. Enjoy it while it lasts - regression is coming, and she doesn't knock. Top driver: xPTS Gap (+22.1 CLS impact). 13 more points than xG simulations predict they deserve

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

33
Points
Expected: 20.25
31
Goals Scored
xG: 18.42
11
Goals Conceded
xGA: 15.57
12.8
Points Above Expected
Lucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 6 · 2026-04-05 · vs Chicago Fire · away
0-1
Lost away against Chicago Fire

One of those games where nothing went right. The model valued this match at 1.0 points for Nashville SC. They got 0. That's 1.0 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
1'P. Zinckernagel scores for Chicago Fire (assist: J. Bamba)
0.79
xG Created
1.18
Opp. xG
-1.0
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW6 · 2026-04-05 · vs Chicago Fire · Away-1.0 pts
Lost 0-1 away despite 0.8 xG. Expected 1.0 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-1 | xG: 0.79-1.18
MW11 · 2026-05-10 · vs DC United · Home-0.8 pts
Drew 2-2 home. xG: 2.0-1.4.
Score: 2-2 | xG: 2.02-1.38
MW2 · 2026-03-01 · vs FC Dallas · Away-0.1 pts
Drew 0-0 away. xG: 0.5-0.7.
Score: 0-0 | xG: 0.49-0.68

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW7 · 2026-04-11 · vs Charlotte · Away+2.6 pts
Won 2-1 away from 0.5 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.4 expected.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 0.54-2.19
MW13 · 2026-05-18 · vs Los Angeles FC · Home+2.5 pts
Won 3-2 home from 0.6 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.5 expected.
Score: 3-2 | xG: 0.63-2.14
MW14 · 2026-05-24 · vs New York City FC · Home+2.1 pts
Won 2-1 home from 0.8 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.9 expected.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 0.75-1.36

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

xPTS Gap
13 more points than xG simulations predict they deserve
+22.1
Finishing Luck
Scored 13 more goals than their 18.4 xG - clinical finishing
+16
Shot Volume Gap
Getting more points than their shot dominance warrants
+7.2
Injury Burden
Low injury burden (47 player-games missed) - squad depth available
+7.1
Defensive Luck
Conceded 5 fewer goals than the 15.6 xGA opponents generated
+6.7
Discipline
Receiving more cards than opponents - decisions going against them
-1.2
Schedule Strength
Faced weaker-than-average opponents so far
+1.1
Total CLS+59

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
Results Expected to Decline
Last 5: improving|24 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

At +59, Nashville SC are living on borrowed time. This level of overperformance is historically unsustainable. The gap between their results and their actual quality is too large to maintain.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available