NAS

Nashville SC CURSD Luck Score

2026 Season · View mls standings →

+32
CLS Score

Nashville SC have had fortune smiling on them. The CLS says they're getting more than they deserve based on underlying performance. Not outrageous, but don't be surprised when the wheels start wobbling.

Data last updated Oct 20, 2018, 1:46 AM UTC

Key Stats

19
Points
Expected: 14.07
17
Goals Scored
xG: 12.9
4
Goals Conceded
xGA: 7.3
4.9
Points Above Expected
Lucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 6 · 2026-04-05 · vs Chicago Fire · away
0-1
Lost away against Chicago Fire

One of those games where nothing went right. The model valued this match at 1.0 points for Nashville SC. They got 0. That's 1.0 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
1'P. Zinckernagel scores for Chicago Fire (assist: J. Bamba)
0.79
xG Created
1.18
Opp. xG
-1.0
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW6 · 2026-04-05 · vs Chicago Fire · Away-1.0 pts
Lost 0-1 away despite 0.8 xG. Expected 1.0 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-1 | xG: 0.79-1.18
MW2 · 2026-03-01 · vs FC Dallas · Away-0.1 pts
Drew 0-0 away. xG: 0.5-0.7.
Score: 0-0 | xG: 0.49-0.68
MW5 · 2026-03-21 · vs Orlando City SC · Home+0.3 pts
Won 5-0 home. xG: 3.2-0.6.
Score: 5-0 | xG: 3.23-0.56

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW7 · 2026-04-11 · vs Charlotte · Away+2.6 pts
Won 2-1 away from 0.5 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.4 expected.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 0.54-2.19
MW3 · 2026-03-08 · vs Minnesota United FC · Home+1.1 pts
Won 3-1 home from 1.8 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.9 expected.
Score: 3-1 | xG: 1.75-0.92
MW4 · 2026-03-14 · vs Columbus Crew · Away+0.8 pts
Won 1-0 away. xG: 1.2-0.2.
Score: 1-0 | xG: 1.16-0.22

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

xPTS Gap
5 more points than xG simulations predict they deserve
+9.8
Injury Burden
Low injury burden (13 player-games missed) - squad depth available
+7.4
Finishing Luck
Scored 4 more goals than their 12.9 xG - clinical finishing
+5.2
Defensive Luck
Conceded 3 fewer goals than the 7.3 xGA opponents generated
+4.3
Shot Volume Gap
Getting more points than their shot dominance warrants
+3.5
Schedule Strength
Faced weaker-than-average opponents so far
+2.8
Discipline
Receiving more cards than opponents - decisions going against them
-1
Total CLS+32

Rank Per Signal

Where Nashville SC ranks among mls teams on each signal. #1 = most cursed.

8
Discipline
1
30
-1
22
Schedule Strength
1
30
+2.8
27
Finishing Luck
1
30
+5.2
27
Shot Volume Gap
1
30
+3.5
28
xPTS Gap
1
30
+9.8
29
Defensive Luck
1
30
+4.3
29
Injury Burden
1
30
+7.4

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
Dip in Form Probable
Last 5: improving|30 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Nashville SC are riding their luck at +32. They're winning games their underlying numbers don't fully support. The correction hasn't started yet, but historical patterns suggest it's coming.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available