Season2026
NAS

Nashville SC CURSD Luck Score

2026 season · 11 matches played · View mls standings →

+36
CLS Score
2nd luckiest of 30 in the mls

Nashville SC have had fortune smiling on them. The CLS says they're getting more than they deserve based on underlying performance. Not outrageous, but don't be surprised when the wheels start wobbling. Top driver: xPTS Gap (+11.1 CLS impact). 6 more points than xG simulations predict they deserve

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

24
Points
Expected: 17.83
23
Goals Scored
xG: 16.65
8
Goals Conceded
xGA: 11.47
6.2
Points Above Expected
Lucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 6 · 2026-04-05 · vs Chicago Fire · away
0-1
Lost away against Chicago Fire

One of those games where nothing went right. The model valued this match at 1.0 points for Nashville SC. They got 0. That's 1.0 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
1'P. Zinckernagel scores for Chicago Fire (assist: J. Bamba)
0.79
xG Created
1.18
Opp. xG
-1.0
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW6 · 2026-04-05 · vs Chicago Fire · Away-1.0 pts
Lost 0-1 away despite 0.8 xG. Expected 1.0 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-1 | xG: 0.79-1.18
MW11 · 2026-05-10 · vs DC United · Home-0.8 pts
Drew 2-2 home. xG: 2.0-1.4.
Score: 2-2 | xG: 2.02-1.38
MW2 · 2026-03-01 · vs FC Dallas · Away-0.1 pts
Drew 0-0 away. xG: 0.5-0.7.
Score: 0-0 | xG: 0.49-0.68

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW7 · 2026-04-11 · vs Charlotte · Away+2.6 pts
Won 2-1 away from 0.5 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.4 expected.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 0.54-2.19
MW9 · 2026-04-26 · vs Charlotte · Home+1.6 pts
Won 4-2 home from 1.2 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.4 expected.
Score: 4-2 | xG: 1.23-1.15
MW3 · 2026-03-08 · vs Minnesota United FC · Home+1.1 pts
Won 3-1 home from 1.8 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.9 expected.
Score: 3-1 | xG: 1.75-0.92

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

xPTS Gap
6 more points than xG simulations predict they deserve
+11.1
Finishing Luck
Scored 6 more goals than their 16.6 xG - clinical finishing
+7.4
Injury Burden
Low injury burden (39 player-games missed) - squad depth available
+6.8
Defensive Luck
Conceded 3 fewer goals than the 11.5 xGA opponents generated
+4.8
Shot Volume Gap
Getting more points than their shot dominance warrants
+4.2
Schedule Strength
Faced weaker-than-average opponents so far
+2.4
Discipline
Receiving more cards than opponents - decisions going against them
-0.7
Total CLS+36

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
Dip in Form Probable
Last 5: improving|27 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Nashville SC are riding their luck at +36. They're winning games their underlying numbers don't fully support. The correction hasn't started yet, but historical patterns suggest it's coming.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available