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New England Revolution CURSD Luck Score

2026 season · 30 matches played · View mls standings →

+41
CLS Score
3rd luckiest of 30 in the mls

New England Revolution have been living on borrowed time. 52 points from 42.56 expected? They're riding a wave of fortune that the data says won't last. Enjoy it while it lasts - regression is coming, and she doesn't knock. Top driver: xPTS Gap (+15.9 CLS impact). 9 more points than xG simulations predict they deserve

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

52
Points
Expected: 42.56
49
Goals Scored
xG: 44.06
41
Goals Conceded
xGA: 39.3
9.4
Points Above Expected
Lucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 19 · 2026-08-15 · vs Toronto FC · away
1-2
Lost away against Toronto FC

A defeat that defied the run of play. New England Revolution created 2.22 xG worth of chances - enough for roughly 2 goals on an average day. They scored 1. Toronto FC created almost nothing - just 0.24 xG - but scored 2 goals. The model valued this match at 2.6 points for New England Revolution. They got 0. That's 2.6 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
43'W. Sands scores for Toronto FC
45'N. Dorsch scores for Toronto FC (assist: D. Mihailovic)
76'Đorđe Mihailović (Toronto FC) - Red Card
90'W. Harris scores for New England Revolution (assist: J. Harrison)
2.22
xG Created
0.24
Opp. xG
-2.6
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW19 · 2026-08-15 · vs Toronto FC · Away-2.6 pts
Lost 1-2 away despite 2.2 xG. Expected 2.6 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-2 | xG: 2.22-0.24
MW23 · 2026-09-06 · vs Los Angeles Galaxy · Away-2.0 pts
Lost 1-2 away despite 2.6 xG. Expected 2.0 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-2 | xG: 2.64-1.47
MW17 · 2026-08-01 · vs CF Montreal · Away-1.6 pts
Drew 2-2 away despite 4.0 xG. Expected 2.6 pts, got 1.
Score: 2-2 | xG: 4.03-0.86

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW8 · 2026-04-22 · vs Atlanta United FC · Away+2.4 pts
Won 2-1 away from 1.1 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.6 expected.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 1.1-2.47
MW30 · 2026-10-17 · vs Chicago Fire · Home+2.4 pts
Won 1-0 home from 0.3 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.6 expected.
Score: 1-0 | xG: 0.27-1.02
MW25 · 2026-09-13 · vs Chicago Fire · Away+1.9 pts
Won 2-1 away from 1.5 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.1 expected.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 1.53-1.92

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

xPTS Gap
9 more points than xG simulations predict they deserve
+15.9
Schedule Strength
Faced weaker-than-average opponents so far
+11.4
Shot Volume Gap
Getting more points than their shot dominance warrants
+7.6
Defensive Luck
Conceded 2 fewer goals than the 39.3 xGA opponents generated
+2.9
Injury Burden
Low injury burden (175 player-games missed) - squad depth available
+2.1
Discipline
Opponents picking up more cards - refereeing luck is on their side
+1.3
Finishing Luck
Scored 5 fewer goals than their 44.1 xG - wasting chances
-0.2
Total CLS+41

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
Results Expected to Decline
Last 5: improving|8 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

At +41, New England Revolution are living on borrowed time. This level of overperformance is historically unsustainable. The gap between their results and their actual quality is too large to maintain.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available