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New England Revolution CURSD Luck Score

2026 Season · View mls standings →

+28
CLS Score

New England Revolution have had fortune smiling on them. The CLS says they're getting more than they deserve based on underlying performance. Not outrageous, but don't be surprised when the wheels start wobbling.

Data last updated Oct 20, 2018, 1:46 AM UTC

Key Stats

12
Points
Expected: 8.8
14
Goals Scored
xG: 7.8
10
Goals Conceded
xGA: 9.09
3.2
Points Above Expected
Lucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 4 · 2026-03-22 · vs St. Louis City · away
1-3
Lost away against St. Louis City

One of those games where nothing went right. New England Revolution generated 1.21 xG, comfortably more than the 1.12 their opponent managed. The model valued this match at 1.4 points for New England Revolution. They got 0. That's 1.4 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
14'I. Feingold scores for New England Revolution (assist: L. Langoni)
29'S. Becher scores for St. Louis City (assist: D. Edelman)
45'C. Durkin scores for St. Louis City (assist: Rafael Santos)
83'M. Hartel scores for St. Louis City
1.21
xG Created
1.12
Opp. xG
-1.4
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW4 · 2026-03-22 · vs St. Louis City · Away-1.4 pts
Lost 1-3 away despite 1.2 xG. Expected 1.4 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-3 | xG: 1.21-1.12
MW2 · 2026-02-28 · vs New York Red Bulls · Away-0.8 pts
Lost 0-1 away. xG: 0.4-1.0.
Score: 0-1 | xG: 0.37-0.96
MW1 · 2026-02-22 · vs Nashville SC · Away-0.4 pts
Lost 1-4 away. xG: 0.9-2.8.
Score: 1-4 | xG: 0.93-2.77

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW6 · 2026-04-11 · vs DC United · Home+1.8 pts
Won 1-0 home from 0.8 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.2 expected.
Score: 1-0 | xG: 0.8-0.99
MW7 · 2026-04-18 · vs Columbus Crew · Home+1.4 pts
Won 2-1 home from 1.2 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.6 expected.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 1.23-0.95
MW3 · 2026-03-15 · vs FC Cincinnati · Home+1.4 pts
Won 6-1 home from 1.5 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.7 expected.
Score: 6-1 | xG: 1.49-1.09

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Finishing Luck
Scored 6 more goals than their 7.8 xG - clinical finishing
+8.7
xPTS Gap
3 more points than xG simulations predict they deserve
+6.2
Schedule Strength
Faced weaker-than-average opponents so far
+5.8
Injury Burden
Low injury burden (28 player-games missed) - squad depth available
+3.6
Shot Volume Gap
Getting more points than their shot dominance warrants
+3
Discipline
Opponents picking up more cards - refereeing luck is on their side
+0.6
Defensive Luck
Conceded 0.9 fewer goals than the 9.1 xGA opponents generated
+0.1
Total CLS+28

Rank Per Signal

Where New England Revolution ranks among mls teams on each signal. #1 = most cursed.

15
Defensive Luck
1
30
+0.1
19
Discipline
1
30
+0.6
24
Injury Burden
1
30
+3.6
25
xPTS Gap
1
30
+6.2
26
Shot Volume Gap
1
30
+3
28
Finishing Luck
1
30
+8.7
28
Schedule Strength
1
30
+5.8

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
Dip in Form Probable
Last 5: improving|31 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

New England Revolution are riding their luck at +28. They're winning games their underlying numbers don't fully support. The correction hasn't started yet, but historical patterns suggest it's coming.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available