Season2026
NEW

New England Revolution CURSD Luck Score

2026 season · 11 matches played · View mls standings →

+47
CLS Score
1st luckiest of 30 in the mls

New England Revolution have been living on borrowed time. 22 points from 13 expected? They're riding a wave of fortune that the data says won't last. Enjoy it while it lasts - regression is coming, and she doesn't knock. Top driver: xPTS Gap (+16.4 CLS impact). 9 more points than xG simulations predict they deserve

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

22
Points
Expected: 13
20
Goals Scored
xG: 13.07
13
Goals Conceded
xGA: 16.93
9
Points Above Expected
Lucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 4 · 2026-03-22 · vs St. Louis City · away
1-3
Lost away against St. Louis City

One of those games where nothing went right. New England Revolution generated 1.21 xG, comfortably more than the 1.12 their opponent managed. The model valued this match at 1.4 points for New England Revolution. They got 0. That's 1.4 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
14'I. Feingold scores for New England Revolution (assist: L. Langoni)
29'S. Becher scores for St. Louis City (assist: D. Edelman)
45'C. Durkin scores for St. Louis City (assist: Rafael Santos)
83'M. Hartel scores for St. Louis City
1.21
xG Created
1.12
Opp. xG
-1.4
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW4 · 2026-03-22 · vs St. Louis City · Away-1.4 pts
Lost 1-3 away despite 1.2 xG. Expected 1.4 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-3 | xG: 1.21-1.12
MW2 · 2026-02-28 · vs New York Red Bulls · Away-0.8 pts
Lost 0-1 away. xG: 0.4-1.0.
Score: 0-1 | xG: 0.37-0.96
MW1 · 2026-02-22 · vs Nashville SC · Away-0.4 pts
Lost 1-4 away. xG: 0.9-2.8.
Score: 1-4 | xG: 0.93-2.77

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW8 · 2026-04-22 · vs Atlanta United FC · Away+2.4 pts
Won 2-1 away from 1.1 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.6 expected.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 1.1-2.47
MW6 · 2026-04-11 · vs DC United · Home+1.8 pts
Won 1-0 home from 0.8 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.2 expected.
Score: 1-0 | xG: 0.8-0.99
MW11 · 2026-05-09 · vs Philadelphia Union · Home+1.8 pts
Won 2-1 home from 1.1 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.2 expected.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 1.05-1.27

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

xPTS Gap
9 more points than xG simulations predict they deserve
+16.4
Finishing Luck
Scored 7 more goals than their 13.1 xG - clinical finishing
+8.4
Shot Volume Gap
Getting more points than their shot dominance warrants
+6
Defensive Luck
Conceded 4 fewer goals than the 16.9 xGA opponents generated
+5.4
Injury Burden
Low injury burden (48 player-games missed) - squad depth available
+4.8
Schedule Strength
Faced weaker-than-average opponents so far
+4.3
Discipline
Opponents picking up more cards - refereeing luck is on their side
+1.7
Total CLS+47

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
Results Expected to Decline
Last 5: improving|27 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

At +47, New England Revolution are living on borrowed time. This level of overperformance is historically unsustainable. The gap between their results and their actual quality is too large to maintain.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available