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New England Revolution CURSD Luck Score

2026 season · 14 matches played · View mls standings →

+41
CLS Score
2nd luckiest of 30 in the mls

New England Revolution have been living on borrowed time. 25 points from 16.52 expected? They're riding a wave of fortune that the data says won't last. Enjoy it while it lasts - regression is coming, and she doesn't knock. Top driver: xPTS Gap (+14.9 CLS impact). 8 more points than xG simulations predict they deserve

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

25
Points
Expected: 16.52
22
Goals Scored
xG: 16.16
18
Goals Conceded
xGA: 20.88
8.5
Points Above Expected
Lucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 12 · 2026-05-13 · vs Nashville SC · at home
0-3
Lost at home against Nashville SC

One of those games where nothing went right. Nashville SC created almost nothing - just 0.39 xG - but scored 3 goals. The model valued this match at 1.5 points for New England Revolution. They got 0. That's 1.5 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
34'B. Acosta scores for Nashville SC (assist: C. Espinoza)
41'W. Madrigal scores for Nashville SC
74'B. Acosta scores for Nashville SC (assist: C. Espinoza)
0.6
xG Created
0.39
Opp. xG
-1.5
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW12 · 2026-05-13 · vs Nashville SC · Home-1.5 pts
Lost 0-3 home despite 0.6 xG. Expected 1.5 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-3 | xG: 0.6-0.39
MW4 · 2026-03-22 · vs St. Louis City · Away-1.4 pts
Lost 1-3 away despite 1.2 xG. Expected 1.4 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-3 | xG: 1.21-1.12
MW2 · 2026-02-28 · vs New York Red Bulls · Away-0.8 pts
Lost 0-1 away. xG: 0.4-1.0.
Score: 0-1 | xG: 0.37-0.96

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW8 · 2026-04-22 · vs Atlanta United FC · Away+2.4 pts
Won 2-1 away from 1.1 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.6 expected.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 1.1-2.47
MW6 · 2026-04-11 · vs DC United · Home+1.8 pts
Won 1-0 home from 0.8 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.2 expected.
Score: 1-0 | xG: 0.8-0.99
MW11 · 2026-05-09 · vs Philadelphia Union · Home+1.8 pts
Won 2-1 home from 1.1 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.2 expected.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 1.05-1.27

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

xPTS Gap
8 more points than xG simulations predict they deserve
+14.9
Finishing Luck
Scored 6 more goals than their 16.2 xG - clinical finishing
+5.5
Defensive Luck
Conceded 3 fewer goals than the 20.9 xGA opponents generated
+5.1
Shot Volume Gap
Getting more points than their shot dominance warrants
+5
Schedule Strength
Faced weaker-than-average opponents so far
+4.5
Injury Burden
Low injury burden (62 player-games missed) - squad depth available
+4
Discipline
Opponents picking up more cards - refereeing luck is on their side
+2
Total CLS+41

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
Results Expected to Decline
Last 5: improving|24 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

At +41, New England Revolution are living on borrowed time. This level of overperformance is historically unsustainable. The gap between their results and their actual quality is too large to maintain.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available