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New York City FC CURSD Luck Score

2026 Season · View mls standings →

-1
CLS Score

New York City FC are getting roughly what they deserve. 11 points vs 12.81 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.

Data last updated Oct 20, 2018, 1:46 AM UTC

Key Stats

11
Points
Expected: 12.81
15
Goals Scored
xG: 12.46
11
Goals Conceded
xGA: 10.54
1.8
Points Below Expected
Unlucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 8 · 2026-04-18 · vs Charlotte · at home
1-2
Lost at home against Charlotte

One of those games where nothing went right. New York City FC generated 1.76 xG, comfortably more than the 1.04 their opponent managed. The model valued this match at 1.9 points for New York City FC. They got 0. That's 1.9 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
54'I. Toklomati scores for Charlotte
90'K. A. Calderon Vargas scores for Charlotte
90'N. Mercau scores for New York City FC (assist: H. Wolf)
1.76
xG Created
1.04
Opp. xG
-1.9
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW8 · 2026-04-18 · vs Charlotte · Home-1.9 pts
Lost 1-2 home despite 1.8 xG. Expected 1.9 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-2 | xG: 1.76-1.04
MW5 · 2026-03-22 · vs Inter Miami · Home-1.3 pts
Lost 2-3 home despite 1.3 xG. Expected 1.3 pts, got 0.
Score: 2-3 | xG: 1.28-1.45
MW1 · 2026-02-23 · vs Los Angeles Galaxy · Away-1.1 pts
Drew 1-1 away despite 1.4 xG. Expected 2.1 pts, got 1.
Score: 1-1 | xG: 1.35-0.36

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW2 · 2026-03-01 · vs Philadelphia Union · Away+1.4 pts
Won 2-1 away from 2.4 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.6 expected.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 2.44-2.03
MW4 · 2026-03-14 · vs Colorado Rapids · Home+1.2 pts
Won 3-1 home from 1.3 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.8 expected.
Score: 3-1 | xG: 1.34-0.76
MW3 · 2026-03-07 · vs Orlando City SC · Home+0.3 pts
Won 5-0 home. xG: 2.5-0.2.
Score: 5-0 | xG: 2.52-0.16

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Schedule Strength
Faced stronger-than-average opponents - a tough draw
-5.6
xPTS Gap
2 fewer points than xG simulations say they deserve
-5.3
Discipline
Opponents picking up more cards - refereeing luck is on their side
+5.1
Finishing Luck
Scored 3 more goals than their 12.5 xG - clinical finishing
+3.4
Injury Burden
Low injury burden (39 player-games missed) - squad depth available
+1.1
Defensive Luck
Conceding almost exactly at the 10.5 xGA opponents generate - no defensive luck either way
+0.7
Shot Volume Gap
Outshooting opponents but not getting the results to match
-0.4
Total CLS-1

Rank Per Signal

Where New York City FC ranks among mls teams on each signal. #1 = most cursed.

4
Schedule Strength
1
30
-5.6
8
xPTS Gap
1
30
-5.3
15
Shot Volume Gap
1
30
-0.4
16
Defensive Luck
1
30
+0.7
20
Injury Burden
1
30
+1.1
22
Finishing Luck
1
30
+3.4
30
Discipline
1
30
+5.1

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: declining|30 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

New York City FC are right where they belong. Their CLS of -1 means results match performance. What you see is what you get.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available