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New York City FC CURSD Luck Score

2026 season · 15 matches played · View mls standings →

+3
CLS Score
14th luckiest of 30 in the mls

New York City FC are getting roughly what they deserve. 19 points vs 20.91 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

19
Points
Expected: 20.91
25
Goals Scored
xG: 19.76
21
Goals Conceded
xGA: 20.51
1.9
Points Below Expected
Unlucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 8 · 2026-04-18 · vs Charlotte · at home
1-2
Lost at home against Charlotte

One of those games where nothing went right. New York City FC generated 1.76 xG, comfortably more than the 1.04 their opponent managed. The model valued this match at 1.9 points for New York City FC. They got 0. That's 1.9 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
54'I. Toklomati scores for Charlotte
90'K. A. Calderon Vargas scores for Charlotte
90'N. Mercau scores for New York City FC (assist: H. Wolf)
1.76
xG Created
1.04
Opp. xG
-1.9
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW8 · 2026-04-18 · vs Charlotte · Home-1.9 pts
Lost 1-2 home despite 1.8 xG. Expected 1.9 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-2 | xG: 1.76-1.04
MW15 · 2026-05-24 · vs Nashville SC · Away-1.8 pts
Lost 1-2 away despite 1.4 xG. Expected 1.8 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-2 | xG: 1.36-0.75
MW5 · 2026-03-22 · vs Inter Miami · Home-1.3 pts
Lost 2-3 home despite 1.3 xG. Expected 1.3 pts, got 0.
Score: 2-3 | xG: 1.28-1.45

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW12 · 2026-05-10 · vs Columbus Crew · Home+1.7 pts
Won 3-0 home from 1.0 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.3 expected.
Score: 3-0 | xG: 1.03-1.07
MW13 · 2026-05-13 · vs Charlotte · Away+1.6 pts
Won 1-0 away from 0.6 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.4 expected.
Score: 1-0 | xG: 0.63-0.51
MW2 · 2026-03-01 · vs Philadelphia Union · Away+1.4 pts
Won 2-1 away from 2.4 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.6 expected.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 2.44-2.03

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Discipline
Opponents picking up more cards - refereeing luck is on their side
+5.1
Finishing Luck
Scored 5 more goals than their 19.8 xG - clinical finishing
+5
xPTS Gap
2 fewer points than xG simulations say they deserve
-4.2
Injury Burden
High injury burden (90 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
-2.3
Defensive Luck
Conceding almost exactly at the 20.5 xGA opponents generate - no defensive luck either way
+2
Schedule Strength
Faced stronger-than-average opponents - a tough draw
-1.8
Shot Volume Gap
Outshooting opponents but not getting the results to match
-0.8
Total CLS+3

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: stable|23 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

New York City FC are right where they belong. Their CLS of +3 means results match performance. What you see is what you get.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available