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New York City FC CURSD Luck Score

2026 season · 30 matches played · View mls standings →

-18
CLS Score
9th unluckiest of 30 in the mls

New York City FC can't catch a break. 34 points when the data says they deserve closer to 39.87? 12 losses, many of them undeserved based on the chances created. The numbers say better days are coming. Top driver: Injury Burden (-14.5 CLS impact). High injury burden (296 player-games missed) - key absences hurting

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

34
Points
Expected: 39.87
43
Goals Scored
xG: 40.09
41
Goals Conceded
xGA: 43.36
5.9
Points Below Expected
Unlucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 26 · 2026-09-18 · vs New York Red Bulls · at home
0-1
Lost at home against New York Red Bulls

A shutout loss that the numbers say should never have happened. New York City FC created 2.3 xG worth of chances - enough for roughly 2 goals on an average day. They scored 0. The model valued this match at 1.9 points for New York City FC. They got 0. That's 1.9 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
57'J. Hall scores for New York Red Bulls
2.3
xG Created
1.4
Opp. xG
-1.9
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW26 · 2026-09-18 · vs New York Red Bulls · Home-1.9 pts
Lost 0-1 home despite 2.3 xG. Expected 1.9 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-1 | xG: 2.3-1.4
MW8 · 2026-04-18 · vs Charlotte · Home-1.9 pts
Lost 1-2 home despite 1.8 xG. Expected 1.9 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-2 | xG: 1.76-1.04
MW15 · 2026-05-24 · vs Nashville SC · Away-1.8 pts
Lost 1-2 away despite 1.4 xG. Expected 1.8 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-2 | xG: 1.36-0.75

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW25 · 2026-09-13 · vs Real Salt Lake · Away+2.1 pts
Won 2-0 away from 0.5 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.8 expected.
Score: 2-0 | xG: 0.51-1.09
MW16 · 2026-07-22 · vs Columbus Crew · Away+1.8 pts
Won 2-1 away from 1.4 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.2 expected.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 1.41-1.67
MW12 · 2026-05-10 · vs Columbus Crew · Home+1.7 pts
Won 3-0 home from 1.0 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.3 expected.
Score: 3-0 | xG: 1.03-1.07

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Injury Burden
High injury burden (296 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
-14.5
xPTS Gap
6 fewer points than xG simulations say they deserve
-10.4
Discipline
Opponents picking up more cards - refereeing luck is on their side
+7.5
Defensive Luck
Conceded 2 fewer goals than the 43.4 xGA opponents generated
+6.2
Shot Volume Gap
Outshooting opponents but not getting the results to match
-3.6
Finishing Luck
Scored 3 fewer goals than their 40.1 xG - wasting chances
-2.9
Schedule Strength
Faced stronger-than-average opponents - a tough draw
-0.3
Total CLS-18

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
Improvement Probable
Last 5: declining|8 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

At -18, New York City FC are meaningfully unlucky. They're roughly 6 points below where their performance says they deserve to be. The underlying quality is there - results are expected to follow as luck normalizes.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available