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New York Red Bulls CURSD Luck Score

2026 season · 15 matches played · View mls standings →

+4
CLS Score
12th luckiest of 30 in the mls

New York Red Bulls are getting roughly what they deserve. 22 points vs 18.33 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

22
Points
Expected: 18.33
25
Goals Scored
xG: 26.38
32
Goals Conceded
xGA: 30.54
3.7
Points Above Expected
Lucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 5 · 2026-03-21 · vs Charlotte · away
1-6
Lost away against Charlotte

One of those games where nothing went right. New York Red Bulls created 2.61 xG worth of chances - enough for roughly 3 goals on an average day. They scored 1. The model valued this match at 1.4 points for New York Red Bulls. They got 0. That's 1.4 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
14'I. Toklomati scores for Charlotte (assist: P. Biel)
46'K. A. Calderon Vargas scores for Charlotte
52'Gustav Berggren (New York Red Bulls) - Red Card
54'P. Biel scores for Charlotte
68'W. Zaha scores for Charlotte (assist: H. Toffolo)
77'A. Goodwin scores for Charlotte (assist: D. Schnegg)
81'J. Hall scores for New York Red Bulls
90'A. Goodwin scores for Charlotte (assist: L. Abada)
2.61
xG Created
2.55
Opp. xG
-1.4
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW5 · 2026-03-21 · vs Charlotte · Away-1.4 pts
Lost 1-6 away despite 2.6 xG. Expected 1.4 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-6 | xG: 2.61-2.55
MW11 · 2026-05-02 · vs FC Dallas · Home-0.8 pts
Lost 0-2 home. xG: 0.8-1.6.
Score: 0-2 | xG: 0.85-1.63
MW14 · 2026-05-16 · vs New York City FC · Home-0.8 pts
Drew 1-1 home. xG: 2.4-1.7.
Score: 1-1 | xG: 2.41-1.73

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW15 · 2026-05-24 · vs Sporting Kansas City · Away+2.2 pts
Won 2-1 away from 0.9 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.8 expected.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 0.88-1.69
MW6 · 2026-04-04 · vs FC Cincinnati · Home+2.0 pts
Won 4-2 home from 2.0 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.0 expected.
Score: 4-2 | xG: 2-2.8
MW2 · 2026-02-28 · vs New England Revolution · Home+1.1 pts
Won 1-0 home from 1.0 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.8 expected.
Score: 1-0 | xG: 0.96-0.37

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

xPTS Gap
4 more points than xG simulations predict they deserve
+6.8
Finishing Luck
Scored 1 fewer goals than their 26.4 xG - wasting chances
-6.4
Schedule Strength
Faced weaker-than-average opponents so far
+2.6
Discipline
Receiving more cards than opponents - decisions going against them
-1
Defensive Luck
Conceded 1 fewer goals than the 30.5 xGA opponents generated
+0.9
Shot Volume Gap
Getting more points than their shot dominance warrants
+0.6
Injury Burden
Low injury burden (78 player-games missed) - squad depth available
+0.5
Total CLS+4

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: improving|23 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

New York Red Bulls are right where they belong. Their CLS of +4 means results match performance. What you see is what you get.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available