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New York Red Bulls CURSD Luck Score

2026 season · 22 matches played · View mls standings →

-16
CLS Score
8th unluckiest of 30 in the mls

New York Red Bulls can't catch a break. 26 points when the data says they deserve closer to 27.49? 10 losses, many of them undeserved based on the chances created. The numbers say better days are coming. Top driver: Finishing Luck (-13.7 CLS impact). Scored 7 fewer goals than their 39.3 xG - wasting chances

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

26
Points
Expected: 27.49
32
Goals Scored
xG: 39.34
46
Goals Conceded
xGA: 44.62
1.5
Points Below Expected
Unlucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 17 · 2026-07-25 · vs Charlotte · at home
0-2
Lost at home against Charlotte

A shutout loss that the numbers say should never have happened. New York Red Bulls created 2.38 xG worth of chances - enough for roughly 2 goals on an average day. They scored 0. Charlotte generated just 0.62 xG but made it count. The model valued this match at 2.4 points for New York Red Bulls. They got 0. That's 2.4 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
7'P. Biel scores for Charlotte (assist: L. Abada)
12'A. Westwood scores for Charlotte (assist: K. A. Calderon Vargas)
90+3'Adri Mehmeti (New York Red Bulls) - Red Card
2.38
xG Created
0.62
Opp. xG
-2.4
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW17 · 2026-07-25 · vs Charlotte · Home-2.4 pts
Lost 0-2 home despite 2.4 xG. Expected 2.4 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-2 | xG: 2.38-0.62
MW20 · 2026-08-19 · vs Nashville SC · Home-1.6 pts
Lost 0-1 home despite 1.6 xG. Expected 1.6 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-1 | xG: 1.63-1.34
MW5 · 2026-03-21 · vs Charlotte · Away-1.4 pts
Lost 1-6 away despite 2.6 xG. Expected 1.4 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-6 | xG: 2.61-2.55

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW15 · 2026-05-24 · vs Sporting Kansas City · Away+2.2 pts
Won 2-1 away from 0.9 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.8 expected.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 0.88-1.69
MW6 · 2026-04-04 · vs FC Cincinnati · Home+2.0 pts
Won 4-2 home from 2.0 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.0 expected.
Score: 4-2 | xG: 2-2.8
MW18 · 2026-08-01 · vs Orlando City SC · Home+1.5 pts
Won 3-2 home from 3.6 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.5 expected.
Score: 3-2 | xG: 3.6-3.2

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Finishing Luck
Scored 7 fewer goals than their 39.3 xG - wasting chances
-13.7
xPTS Gap
1 fewer points than xG simulations say they deserve
-2.9
Shot Volume Gap
Outshooting opponents but not getting the results to match
-2.8
Injury Burden
Low injury burden (118 player-games missed) - squad depth available
+2.8
Discipline
Receiving more cards than opponents - decisions going against them
-1.9
Schedule Strength
Faced weaker-than-average opponents so far
+1.3
Defensive Luck
Conceded 1 fewer goals than the 44.6 xGA opponents generated
+1.2
Total CLS-16

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
Improvement Probable
Last 5: declining|16 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

At -16, New York Red Bulls are meaningfully unlucky. They're roughly 1 points below where their performance says they deserve to be. The underlying quality is there - results are expected to follow as luck normalizes.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available