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New York Red Bulls CURSD Luck Score

2026 season · 12 matches played · View mls standings →

-2
CLS Score
15th unluckiest of 30 in the mls

New York Red Bulls are getting roughly what they deserve. 15 points vs 13.66 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

15
Points
Expected: 13.66
19
Goals Scored
xG: 20.3
28
Goals Conceded
xGA: 25.61
1.3
Points Above Expected
Lucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 5 · 2026-03-21 · vs Charlotte · away
1-6
Lost away against Charlotte

One of those games where nothing went right. New York Red Bulls created 2.61 xG worth of chances - enough for roughly 3 goals on an average day. They scored 1. The model valued this match at 1.4 points for New York Red Bulls. They got 0. That's 1.4 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
14'I. Toklomati scores for Charlotte (assist: P. Biel)
46'K. A. Calderon Vargas scores for Charlotte
52'Gustav Berggren (New York Red Bulls) - Red Card
54'P. Biel scores for Charlotte
68'W. Zaha scores for Charlotte (assist: H. Toffolo)
77'A. Goodwin scores for Charlotte (assist: D. Schnegg)
81'J. Hall scores for New York Red Bulls
90'A. Goodwin scores for Charlotte (assist: L. Abada)
2.61
xG Created
2.55
Opp. xG
-1.4
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW5 · 2026-03-21 · vs Charlotte · Away-1.4 pts
Lost 1-6 away despite 2.6 xG. Expected 1.4 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-6 | xG: 2.61-2.55
MW11 · 2026-05-02 · vs FC Dallas · Home-0.8 pts
Lost 0-2 home. xG: 0.8-1.6.
Score: 0-2 | xG: 0.85-1.63
MW4 · 2026-03-14 · vs Toronto FC · Away-0.7 pts
Drew 1-1 away. xG: 1.8-1.3.
Score: 1-1 | xG: 1.79-1.28

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW6 · 2026-04-04 · vs FC Cincinnati · Home+2.0 pts
Won 4-2 home from 2.0 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.0 expected.
Score: 4-2 | xG: 2-2.8
MW2 · 2026-02-28 · vs New England Revolution · Home+1.1 pts
Won 1-0 home from 1.0 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.8 expected.
Score: 1-0 | xG: 0.96-0.37
MW12 · 2026-05-09 · vs Chicago Fire · Away+1.1 pts
Won 3-1 away from 1.5 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.9 expected.
Score: 3-1 | xG: 1.49-0.78

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Finishing Luck
Scored 1 fewer goals than their 20.3 xG - wasting chances
-5.9
xPTS Gap
1 more points than xG simulations predict they deserve
+2.8
Schedule Strength
Faced weaker-than-average opponents so far
+2.1
Injury Burden
Low injury burden (62 player-games missed) - squad depth available
+1.9
Shot Volume Gap
Outshooting opponents but not getting the results to match
-1.6
Defensive Luck
Conceded 2 more goals than the 25.6 xGA opponents generated
-0.9
Discipline
Receiving more cards than opponents - decisions going against them
-0.4
Total CLS-2

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: stable|26 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

New York Red Bulls are right where they belong. Their CLS of -2 means results match performance. What you see is what you get.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available