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New York Red Bulls CURSD Luck Score

2026 Season · View mls standings →

-6
CLS Score

New York Red Bulls are getting roughly what they deserve. 11 points vs 9.82 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.

Data last updated Oct 20, 2018, 1:46 AM UTC

Key Stats

11
Points
Expected: 9.82
12
Goals Scored
xG: 15.18
19
Goals Conceded
xGA: 16.93
1.2
Points Above Expected
Lucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 5 · 2026-03-21 · vs Charlotte · away
1-6
Lost away against Charlotte

One of those games where nothing went right. New York Red Bulls created 2.61 xG worth of chances - enough for roughly 3 goals on an average day. They scored 1. The model valued this match at 1.4 points for New York Red Bulls. They got 0. That's 1.4 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
14'I. Toklomati scores for Charlotte (assist: P. Biel)
46'K. A. Calderon Vargas scores for Charlotte
52'Gustav Berggren (New York Red Bulls) - Red Card
54'P. Biel scores for Charlotte
68'W. Zaha scores for Charlotte (assist: H. Toffolo)
77'A. Goodwin scores for Charlotte (assist: D. Schnegg)
81'J. Hall scores for New York Red Bulls
90'A. Goodwin scores for Charlotte (assist: L. Abada)
2.61
xG Created
2.55
Opp. xG
-1.4
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW5 · 2026-03-21 · vs Charlotte · Away-1.4 pts
Lost 1-6 away despite 2.6 xG. Expected 1.4 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-6 | xG: 2.61-2.55
MW4 · 2026-03-14 · vs Toronto FC · Away-0.7 pts
Drew 1-1 away. xG: 1.8-1.3.
Score: 1-1 | xG: 1.79-1.28
MW3 · 2026-03-08 · vs CF Montreal · Home-0.6 pts
Lost 0-3 home. xG: 0.8-2.1.
Score: 0-3 | xG: 0.85-2.07

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW6 · 2026-04-04 · vs FC Cincinnati · Home+2.0 pts
Won 4-2 home from 2.0 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.0 expected.
Score: 4-2 | xG: 2-2.8
MW2 · 2026-02-28 · vs New England Revolution · Home+1.1 pts
Won 1-0 home from 1.0 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.8 expected.
Score: 1-0 | xG: 0.96-0.37
MW1 · 2026-02-22 · vs Orlando City SC · Away+1.0 pts
Won 2-1 away. xG: 4.6-2.4.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 4.64-2.41

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Finishing Luck
Scored 3 fewer goals than their 15.2 xG - wasting chances
-7.1
xPTS Gap
1 more points than xG simulations predict they deserve
+2.1
Schedule Strength
Faced weaker-than-average opponents so far
+1.5
Defensive Luck
Conceded 2 more goals than the 16.9 xGA opponents generated
-1
Shot Volume Gap
Outshooting opponents but not getting the results to match
-0.6
Injury Burden
High injury burden (44 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
-0.5
Discipline
Receiving more cards than opponents - decisions going against them
-0.4
Total CLS-6

Rank Per Signal

Where New York Red Bulls ranks among mls teams on each signal. #1 = most cursed.

2
Finishing Luck
1
30
-7.1
11
Discipline
1
30
-0.4
12
Defensive Luck
1
30
-1
13
Shot Volume Gap
1
30
-0.6
15
Injury Burden
1
30
-0.5
18
xPTS Gap
1
30
+2.1
20
Schedule Strength
1
30
+1.5

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: stable|30 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

New York Red Bulls are right where they belong. Their CLS of -6 means results match performance. What you see is what you get.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available