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New York Red Bulls CURSD Luck Score

2026 season · 30 matches played · View mls standings →

-13
CLS Score
10th unluckiest of 30 in the mls

New York Red Bulls are getting roughly what they deserve. 36 points vs 38.02 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

36
Points
Expected: 38.02
39
Goals Scored
xG: 51.68
56
Goals Conceded
xGA: 55.95
2
Points Below Expected
Unlucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 17 · 2026-07-25 · vs Charlotte · at home
0-2
Lost at home against Charlotte

A shutout loss that the numbers say should never have happened. New York Red Bulls created 2.38 xG worth of chances - enough for roughly 2 goals on an average day. They scored 0. Charlotte generated just 0.62 xG but made it count. The model valued this match at 2.4 points for New York Red Bulls. They got 0. That's 2.4 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
7'P. Biel scores for Charlotte (assist: L. Abada)
12'A. Westwood scores for Charlotte (assist: K. A. Calderon Vargas)
90+3'Adri Mehmeti (New York Red Bulls) - Red Card
2.38
xG Created
0.62
Opp. xG
-2.4
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW17 · 2026-07-25 · vs Charlotte · Home-2.4 pts
Lost 0-2 home despite 2.4 xG. Expected 2.4 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-2 | xG: 2.38-0.62
MW29 · 2026-10-14 · vs DC United · Away-2.3 pts
Lost 1-2 away despite 3.0 xG. Expected 2.3 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-2 | xG: 3-1.26
MW30 · 2026-10-17 · vs Toronto FC · Home-1.6 pts
Lost 0-2 home despite 1.0 xG. Expected 1.6 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-2 | xG: 1.01-0.66

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW15 · 2026-05-24 · vs Sporting Kansas City · Away+2.2 pts
Won 2-1 away from 0.9 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.8 expected.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 0.88-1.69
MW26 · 2026-09-18 · vs New York City FC · Away+2.1 pts
Won 1-0 away from 1.4 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.9 expected.
Score: 1-0 | xG: 1.4-2.3
MW6 · 2026-04-04 · vs FC Cincinnati · Home+2.0 pts
Won 4-2 home from 2.0 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.0 expected.
Score: 4-2 | xG: 2-2.8

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Finishing Luck
Scored 13 fewer goals than their 51.7 xG - wasting chances
-23.5
Schedule Strength
Faced weaker-than-average opponents so far
+9.4
Injury Burden
Low injury burden (153 player-games missed) - squad depth available
+5.1
Defensive Luck
Conceding almost exactly at the 56.0 xGA opponents generate - no defensive luck either way
+4.2
xPTS Gap
2 fewer points than xG simulations say they deserve
-3.8
Shot Volume Gap
Outshooting opponents but not getting the results to match
-3.5
Discipline
Receiving more cards than opponents - decisions going against them
-0.9
Total CLS-13

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: stable|8 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

New York Red Bulls are right where they belong. Their CLS of -13 means results match performance. What you see is what you get.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available