ORL

Orlando City SC CURSD Luck Score

2026 Season · View mls standings →

-25
CLS Score

Orlando City SC can't catch a break. 4 points when the data says they deserve closer to 6.11? 6 losses, many of them undeserved based on the chances created. The numbers say better days are coming.

Data last updated Oct 20, 2018, 1:46 AM UTC

Key Stats

4
Points
Expected: 6.11
6
Goals Scored
xG: 9.04
25
Goals Conceded
xGA: 18.86
2.1
Points Below Expected
Unlucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 8 · 2026-04-18 · vs Houston Dynamo · at home
0-1
Lost at home against Houston Dynamo

One of those games where nothing went right. The model valued this match at 1.3 points for Orlando City SC. They got 0. That's 1.3 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
75'H. Herrera scores for Houston Dynamo
1.2
xG Created
1.26
Opp. xG
-1.3
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW8 · 2026-04-18 · vs Houston Dynamo · Home-1.3 pts
Lost 0-1 home despite 1.2 xG. Expected 1.3 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-1 | xG: 1.2-1.26
MW2 · 2026-03-02 · vs Inter Miami · Home-0.7 pts
Lost 2-4 home. xG: 0.8-1.8.
Score: 2-4 | xG: 0.81-1.82
MW1 · 2026-02-22 · vs New York Red Bulls · Home-0.5 pts
Lost 1-2 home. xG: 2.4-4.6.
Score: 1-2 | xG: 2.41-4.64

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW4 · 2026-03-14 · vs CF Montreal · Home+1.1 pts
Won 2-1 home from 2.6 xG. Got 3 pts vs 2.0 expected.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 2.57-1.56
MW7 · 2026-04-12 · vs Columbus Crew · Away+0.1 pts
Drew 1-1 away. xG: 0.6-1.2.
Score: 1-1 | xG: 0.61-1.18
MW3 · 2026-03-07 · vs New York City FC · Away+-0.1 pts
Lost 0-5 away. xG: 0.2-2.5.
Score: 0-5 | xG: 0.16-2.52

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Finishing Luck
Scored 3 fewer goals than their 9.0 xG - wasting chances
-7
Defensive Luck
Conceded 6 more goals than the 18.9 xGA opponents generated
-5.2
xPTS Gap
2 fewer points than xG simulations say they deserve
-4.7
Discipline
Receiving more cards than opponents - decisions going against them
-2.7
Shot Volume Gap
Outshooting opponents but not getting the results to match
-2.6
Schedule Strength
Faced stronger-than-average opponents - a tough draw
-1.6
Injury Burden
High injury burden (47 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
-1.2
Total CLS-25

Rank Per Signal

Where Orlando City SC ranks among mls teams on each signal. #1 = most cursed.

1
Discipline
1
30
-2.7
2
Defensive Luck
1
30
-5.2
3
Finishing Luck
1
30
-7
6
Shot Volume Gap
1
30
-2.6
9
xPTS Gap
1
30
-4.7
9
Injury Burden
1
30
-1.2
12
Schedule Strength
1
30
-1.6

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
Improvement Probable
Last 5: stable|30 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

At -25, Orlando City SC are meaningfully unlucky. They're roughly 2 points below where their performance says they deserve to be. The underlying quality is there - results are expected to follow as luck normalizes.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available