Season2026
ORL

Orlando City SC CURSD Luck Score

2026 season · 15 matches played · View mls standings →

-12
CLS Score
8th unluckiest of 30 in the mls

Orlando City SC are getting roughly what they deserve. 14 points vs 13.72 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

14
Points
Expected: 13.72
23
Goals Scored
xG: 19.94
44
Goals Conceded
xGA: 33.2
0.3
Points Above Expected
Lucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 8 · 2026-04-18 · vs Houston Dynamo · at home
0-1
Lost at home against Houston Dynamo

One of those games where nothing went right. The model valued this match at 1.3 points for Orlando City SC. They got 0. That's 1.3 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
75'H. Herrera scores for Houston Dynamo
1.2
xG Created
1.26
Opp. xG
-1.3
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW8 · 2026-04-18 · vs Houston Dynamo · Home-1.3 pts
Lost 0-1 home despite 1.2 xG. Expected 1.3 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-1 | xG: 1.2-1.26
MW10 · 2026-04-25 · vs DC United · Away-1.1 pts
Lost 2-3 away despite 0.8 xG. Expected 1.2 pts, got 0.
Score: 2-3 | xG: 0.83-1.07
MW15 · 2026-05-23 · vs FC Cincinnati · Away-0.9 pts
Lost 2-6 away. xG: 2.3-3.2.
Score: 2-6 | xG: 2.29-3.23

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW9 · 2026-04-22 · vs Charlotte · Home+2.1 pts
Won 4-1 home from 0.9 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.9 expected.
Score: 4-1 | xG: 0.9-1.57
MW11 · 2026-05-02 · vs Inter Miami · Away+2.0 pts
Won 4-3 away from 2.3 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.0 expected.
Score: 4-3 | xG: 2.26-3.14
MW4 · 2026-03-14 · vs CF Montreal · Home+1.1 pts
Won 2-1 home from 2.6 xG. Got 3 pts vs 2.0 expected.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 2.57-1.56

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Defensive Luck
Conceded 11 more goals than the 33.2 xGA opponents generated
-8.4
Discipline
Receiving more cards than opponents - decisions going against them
-2.9
Injury Burden
High injury burden (87 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
-1.5
Finishing Luck
Scored 3 more goals than their 19.9 xG - clinical finishing
+1.2
Shot Volume Gap
Outshooting opponents but not getting the results to match
-0.4
xPTS Gap
Almost exactly on expected points (0.3 xPTS gap)
+0.1
Schedule Strength
Faced stronger-than-average opponents - a tough draw
-0.1
Total CLS-12

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: stable|23 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Orlando City SC are right where they belong. Their CLS of -12 means results match performance. What you see is what you get.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available