Season2026
ORL

Orlando City SC CURSD Luck Score

2026 season · 30 matches played · View mls standings →

+6
CLS Score
10th luckiest of 30 in the mls

Orlando City SC are getting roughly what they deserve. 41 points vs 34.12 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

41
Points
Expected: 34.12
58
Goals Scored
xG: 40.89
70
Goals Conceded
xGA: 52.51
6.9
Points Above Expected
Lucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 20 · 2026-08-19 · vs Chicago Fire · at home
1-2
Lost at home against Chicago Fire

One of those games where nothing went right. Orlando City SC generated 1.77 xG, comfortably more than the 1.3 their opponent managed. The model valued this match at 1.7 points for Orlando City SC. They got 0. That's 1.7 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
4'P. Dithejane scores for Chicago Fire (assist: D. Poreba)
52'D. Brekalo scores for Orlando City SC (assist: A. Griezmann)
69'R. Lewandowski scores for Chicago Fire
1.77
xG Created
1.3
Opp. xG
-1.7
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW20 · 2026-08-19 · vs Chicago Fire · Home-1.7 pts
Lost 1-2 home despite 1.8 xG. Expected 1.7 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-2 | xG: 1.77-1.3
MW8 · 2026-04-18 · vs Houston Dynamo · Home-1.3 pts
Lost 0-1 home despite 1.2 xG. Expected 1.3 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-1 | xG: 1.2-1.26
MW18 · 2026-08-01 · vs New York Red Bulls · Away-1.2 pts
Lost 2-3 away despite 3.2 xG. Expected 1.2 pts, got 0.
Score: 2-3 | xG: 3.2-3.6

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW28 · 2026-10-10 · vs Columbus Crew · Home+2.4 pts
Won 3-2 home from 2.4 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.7 expected.
Score: 3-2 | xG: 2.44-4.28
MW9 · 2026-04-22 · vs Charlotte · Home+2.1 pts
Won 4-1 home from 0.9 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.9 expected.
Score: 4-1 | xG: 0.9-1.57
MW17 · 2026-07-25 · vs Nashville SC · Home+2.0 pts
Won 1-0 home from 0.0 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.0 expected.
Score: 1-0 | xG: 0-0

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Finishing Luck
Scored 17 more goals than their 40.9 xG - clinical finishing
+15.4
xPTS Gap
7 more points than xG simulations predict they deserve
+11.1
Schedule Strength
Faced stronger-than-average opponents - a tough draw
-10.8
Defensive Luck
Conceded 17 more goals than the 52.5 xGA opponents generated
-10
Shot Volume Gap
Getting more points than their shot dominance warrants
+3.8
Injury Burden
High injury burden (204 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
-1.9
Discipline
Receiving more cards than opponents - decisions going against them
-1.6
Total CLS+6

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: improving|8 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Orlando City SC are right where they belong. Their CLS of +6 means results match performance. What you see is what you get.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available