Osasuna

Osasuna CURSD Luck Score

2026-27 season · 7 matches played · View La Liga standings →

-16
CLS Score
3rd unluckiest of 20 in the La Liga

Osasuna can't catch a break. 8 points when the data says they deserve closer to 9.53? 3 losses, many of them undeserved based on the chances created. The numbers say better days are coming. Top driver: Finishing Luck (-6.0 CLS impact). Scored 3 fewer goals than their 8.7 xG - wasting chances

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

8
Points
Expected: 9.53
6
Goals Scored
xG: 8.68
13
Goals Conceded
xGA: 9.73
1.5
Points Below Expected
Unlucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 4 · 2026-09-06 · vs Alaves · away
2-5
Lost away against Alaves

One of those games where nothing went right. Osasuna generated 1.64 xG, comfortably more than the 1.2 their opponent managed. The model valued this match at 1.7 points for Osasuna. They got 0. That's 1.7 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
27'L. Boye scores for Alaves (assist: M. Diaz)
36'M. Diaz scores for Alaves (assist: A. Sivera)
46'A. Budimir scores for Osasuna (assist: M. Gomez)
51'L. Boye scores for Alaves (assist: C. Alena)
64'A. Budimir scores for Osasuna
68'L. Boye scores for Alaves (assist: A. Perez)
90'P. Ibanez scores for Alaves (assist: A. Perez)
1.64
xG Created
1.2
Opp. xG
-1.7
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW4 · 2026-09-06 · vs Alaves · Away-1.7 pts
Lost 2-5 away despite 1.6 xG. Expected 1.7 pts, got 0.
Score: 2-5 | xG: 1.64-1.2
MW5 · 2026-09-12 · vs Espanyol · Home-1.1 pts
Lost 0-2 home despite 1.1 xG. Expected 1.1 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-2 | xG: 1.05-1.43
MW6 · 2026-09-16 · vs Atletico Madrid · Away-0.1 pts
Lost 0-4 away. xG: 0.5-4.0.
Score: 0-4 | xG: 0.48-3.99

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW3 · 2026-08-31 · vs Getafe · Home+0.9 pts
Won 1-0 home. xG: 1.7-0.7.
Score: 1-0 | xG: 1.68-0.68
MW2 · 2026-08-27 · vs Celta Vigo · Away+0.2 pts
Won 2-1 away. xG: 2.6-0.1.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 2.6-0.14
MW1 · 2026-08-24 · vs Levante · Home+0.1 pts
Drew 0-0 home. xG: 0.7-1.3.
Score: 0-0 | xG: 0.7-1.28

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Finishing Luck
Scored 3 fewer goals than their 8.7 xG - wasting chances
-6
Schedule Strength
Faced stronger-than-average opponents - a tough draw
-4.3
Defensive Luck
Conceded 3 more goals than the 9.7 xGA opponents generated
-3.5
xPTS Gap
2 fewer points than xG simulations say they deserve
-3.2
Injury Burden
Low injury burden (26 player-games missed) - squad depth available
+1.3
Discipline
Receiving more cards than opponents - decisions going against them
-0.2
Shot Volume Gap
Outshooting opponents but not getting the results to match
-0.1
Total CLS-16

Rivalry Check

How are the rivals doing?

Real Sociedad
Real Sociedad
3W-1D-3L
+13Neutral
#7 in league

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
Improvement Probable
Last 5: stable|31 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

At -16, Osasuna are meaningfully unlucky. They're roughly 2 points below where their performance says they deserve to be. The underlying quality is there - results are expected to follow as luck normalizes.

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