Osasuna

Osasuna Luck Index

2025-26 Season · View La Liga standings →

+17
Luck Index Score

Osasuna are getting roughly what they deserve. 37 points vs 37.33 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.

37
Points
Expected: 37.33
34
Goals Scored
xG: 34.6
35
Goals Conceded
xGA: 38.76
0.3
Points Below Expected
Unlucky gap

Luck Index Evolution

How the Luck Index has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 27 · 2026-03-07 · vs Mallorca · at home
2-2
Drew at home against Mallorca

A draw that felt like a loss. Osasuna created 2.56 xG worth of chances - enough for roughly 3 goals on an average day. They scored 2. Mallorca generated just 1.08 xG but made it count. The model valued this match at 2.2 points for Osasuna. They got 1. That's 1.2 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
44'V. Vanat scores for Girona (assist: A. Moreno)
90+5'Lancinet Kourouma (Girona) - Red Card
2.56
xG Created
1.08
Opp. xG
-1.2
Pts Lost

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW19 · 2026-01-10 · vs Girona · Away-1.9 pts
Lost 0-1 away despite 1.4 xG. Expected 1.9 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-1 | xG: 1.41-0.65
MW10 · 2025-10-26 · vs Celta Vigo · Home-1.6 pts
Lost 2-3 home despite 2.3 xG. Expected 1.6 pts, got 0.
Score: 2-3 | xG: 2.31-1.96
MW3 · 2025-08-31 · vs Espanyol · Away-1.5 pts
Lost 0-1 away despite 1.4 xG. Expected 1.5 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-1 | xG: 1.37-1.21

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW23 · 2026-02-06 · vs Celta Vigo · Away+2.5 pts
Won 2-1 away from 0.7 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.5 expected.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 0.66-2.16
MW8 · 2025-10-03 · vs Getafe · Home+2.1 pts
Won 2-1 home from 0.4 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.9 expected.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 0.43-0.82
MW20 · 2026-01-17 · vs Oviedo · Home+1.6 pts
Won 3-2 home from 1.4 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.4 expected.
Score: 3-2 | xG: 1.37-1.34

What's Driving the Luck Index

Each factor's contribution to the Luck Index score. These add up to the total.

Injury Burden
Low injury burden (60 player-games missed) - squad depth available
+12
Defensive Luck
Conceded 4 fewer goals than the 38.8 xGA opponents generated
+5
Schedule Strength
Faced weaker-than-average opponents so far
+2
xPTS Gap
0 fewer points than xG simulations say they deserve
-1
Shot Volume Gap
Outshooting opponents but not getting the results to match
-1
Discipline
Receiving more cards than opponents - decisions going against them
-1
Finishing Luck
Scored 1 more goals than their 34.6 xG - clinical finishing
0
Total Luck Index+16

Rivalry Check

How are the rivals doing?

Real Sociedad
Real Sociedad
10W-8D-11L
-2Neutral
#8 in league

What to Expect Next

Regression Outlook
Correction Probable
Last 5: stable|9 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Osasuna are riding their luck at +17. They're winning games their underlying numbers don't fully support. The correction hasn't started yet, but historical patterns suggest it's coming. A dip in form is probable.

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