Osasuna

Osasuna CURSD Luck Score

2025-26 season · 38 matches played · View La Liga standings →

-2
CLS Score
10th unluckiest of 20 in the La Liga

Osasuna are getting roughly what they deserve. 42 points vs 51.22 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

42
Points
Expected: 51.22
44
Goals Scored
xG: 46.07
50
Goals Conceded
xGA: 49.17
9.2
Points Below Expected
Unlucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 37 · 2026-05-17 · vs Espanyol · at home
1-2
Lost at home against Espanyol

One of those games where nothing went right. Osasuna generated 1.72 xG, comfortably more than the 0.79 their opponent managed. Espanyol generated just 0.79 xG but made it count. The model valued this match at 2.0 points for Osasuna. They got 0. That's 2.0 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
27'C. Romero scores for Espanyol
49'V. Munoz scores for Osasuna (assist: F. Boyomo)
53'K. Garcia scores for Espanyol (assist: T. Dolan)
1.72
xG Created
0.79
Opp. xG
-2.0
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW37 · 2026-05-17 · vs Espanyol · Home-2.0 pts
Lost 1-2 home despite 1.7 xG. Expected 2.0 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-2 | xG: 1.72-0.79
MW19 · 2026-01-10 · vs Girona · Away-1.9 pts
Lost 0-1 away despite 1.4 xG. Expected 1.9 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-1 | xG: 1.41-0.65
MW32 · 2026-04-21 · vs Athletic Club · Away-1.9 pts
Lost 0-1 away despite 1.2 xG. Expected 1.9 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-1 | xG: 1.21-0.54

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW23 · 2026-02-06 · vs Celta Vigo · Away+2.5 pts
Won 2-1 away from 0.7 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.5 expected.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 0.66-2.16
MW8 · 2025-10-03 · vs Getafe · Home+2.1 pts
Won 2-1 home from 0.4 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.9 expected.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 0.43-0.82
MW20 · 2026-01-17 · vs Oviedo · Home+1.6 pts
Won 3-2 home from 1.4 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.4 expected.
Score: 3-2 | xG: 1.37-1.34

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

xPTS Gap
9 fewer points than xG simulations say they deserve
-16.7
Injury Burden
Low injury burden (76 player-games missed) - squad depth available
+15.4
Schedule Strength
Faced weaker-than-average opponents so far
+9.6
Shot Volume Gap
Outshooting opponents but not getting the results to match
-5.1
Finishing Luck
Scored 2 fewer goals than their 46.1 xG - wasting chances
-3.3
Defensive Luck
Conceded 0.8 more goals than the 49.2 xGA opponents generated
-1.2
Discipline
Receiving more cards than opponents - decisions going against them
-0.7
Total CLS-2

Rivalry Check

How are the rivals doing?

Real Sociedad
Real Sociedad
11W-13D-14L
-7Neutral
#10 in league

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: declining

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Osasuna are right where they belong. Their CLS of -2 means results match performance. What you see is what you get.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available