Osasuna CURSD Luck Score

2025-26 Season · View La Liga standings →

+16

CLS Score

Osasuna have had fortune smiling on them. The CLS says they're getting more than they deserve based on underlying performance. Not outrageous, but don't be surprised when the wheels start wobbling.

Data last updated Oct 20, 2018, 1:46 AM UTC

Points

Expected: 40.42

Goals Scored

xG: 37.36

Goals Conceded

xGA: 41.24

1.4

Points Below Expected

Unlucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match

Matchweek 19 · 2026-01-10 · vs Girona · away

0-1

Lost away against Girona

One of those games where nothing went right. Osasuna generated 1.41 xG, comfortably more than the 0.65 their opponent managed. Girona generated just 0.65 xG but made it count. The model valued this match at 1.9 points for Osasuna. They got 0. That's 1.9 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline

44'V. Vanat scores for Girona (assist: A. Moreno)

90+5'Lancinet Kourouma (Girona) - Red Card

1.41

xG Created

0.65

Opp. xG

-1.9

Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW19 · 2026-01-10 · vs Girona · Away-1.9 pts

Lost 0-1 away despite 1.4 xG. Expected 1.9 pts, got 0.

Score: 0-1 | xG: 1.41-0.65

MW10 · 2025-10-26 · vs Celta Vigo · Home-1.6 pts

Lost 2-3 home despite 2.3 xG. Expected 1.6 pts, got 0.

Score: 2-3 | xG: 2.31-1.96

MW3 · 2025-08-31 · vs Espanyol · Away-1.5 pts

Lost 0-1 away despite 1.4 xG. Expected 1.5 pts, got 0.

Score: 0-1 | xG: 1.37-1.21

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW23 · 2026-02-06 · vs Celta Vigo · Away+2.5 pts

Won 2-1 away from 0.7 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.5 expected.

Score: 2-1 | xG: 0.66-2.16

MW8 · 2025-10-03 · vs Getafe · Home+2.1 pts

Won 2-1 home from 0.4 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.9 expected.

Score: 2-1 | xG: 0.43-0.82

MW20 · 2026-01-17 · vs Oviedo · Home+1.6 pts

Won 3-2 home from 1.4 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.4 expected.

Score: 3-2 | xG: 1.37-1.34

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Injury Burden

Low injury burden (68 player-games missed) - squad depth available

+10.8

Schedule Strength

Faced weaker-than-average opponents so far

+5.9

Defensive Luck

Conceded 3 fewer goals than the 41.2 xGA opponents generated

+3.2

xPTS Gap

1 fewer points than xG simulations say they deserve

-2.4

Discipline

Receiving more cards than opponents - decisions going against them

-1.1

Shot Volume Gap

Outshooting opponents but not getting the results to match

-0.8

Finishing Luck

Scoring almost exactly at their 37.4 xG - neither clinical nor wasteful

+0.4

Total CLS+16

Rank Per Signal

Where Osasuna ranks among La Liga teams on each signal. #1 = most cursed.

xPTS Gap

-2.4

Discipline

-1.1

Shot Volume Gap

-0.8

Finishing Luck

+0.4

Defensive Luck

+3.2

Schedule Strength

+5.9

Injury Burden

+10.8

Rivalry Check

How are the rivals doing?

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook

Dip in Form Probable

Last 5: declining|7 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds

Why?

Osasuna are riding their luck at +16. They're winning games their underlying numbers don't fully support. Recent results already show signs of the correction.

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