Season

Osasuna CURSD Luck Score

2025-26 season · 37 matches played · View La Liga standings →

CLS Score

10th luckiest of 20 in the La Liga

Osasuna are getting roughly what they deserve. 42 points vs 49.66 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Points

Expected: 49.66

Goals Scored

xG: 45.56

Goals Conceded

xGA: 48.96

7.7

Points Below Expected

Unlucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match

Matchweek 37 · 2026-05-17 · vs Espanyol · at home

1-2

Lost at home against Espanyol

One of those games where nothing went right. Osasuna generated 1.72 xG, comfortably more than the 0.79 their opponent managed. Espanyol generated just 0.79 xG but made it count. The model valued this match at 2.0 points for Osasuna. They got 0. That's 2.0 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline

27'C. Romero scores for Espanyol

49'V. Munoz scores for Osasuna (assist: F. Boyomo)

53'K. Garcia scores for Espanyol (assist: T. Dolan)

1.72

xG Created

0.79

Opp. xG

-2.0

Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW37 · 2026-05-17 · vs Espanyol · Home-2.0 pts

Lost 1-2 home despite 1.7 xG. Expected 2.0 pts, got 0.

Score: 1-2 | xG: 1.72-0.79

MW19 · 2026-01-10 · vs Girona · Away-1.9 pts

Lost 0-1 away despite 1.4 xG. Expected 1.9 pts, got 0.

Score: 0-1 | xG: 1.41-0.65

MW32 · 2026-04-21 · vs Athletic Club · Away-1.9 pts

Lost 0-1 away despite 1.2 xG. Expected 1.9 pts, got 0.

Score: 0-1 | xG: 1.21-0.54

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW23 · 2026-02-06 · vs Celta Vigo · Away+2.5 pts

Won 2-1 away from 0.7 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.5 expected.

Score: 2-1 | xG: 0.66-2.16

MW8 · 2025-10-03 · vs Getafe · Home+2.1 pts

Won 2-1 home from 0.4 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.9 expected.

Score: 2-1 | xG: 0.43-0.82

MW20 · 2026-01-17 · vs Oviedo · Home+1.6 pts

Won 3-2 home from 1.4 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.4 expected.

Score: 3-2 | xG: 1.37-1.34

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Injury Burden

Low injury burden (76 player-games missed) - squad depth available

+17.5

xPTS Gap

8 fewer points than xG simulations say they deserve

-16.4

Schedule Strength

Faced weaker-than-average opponents so far

+9.5

Shot Volume Gap

Outshooting opponents but not getting the results to match

-5

Finishing Luck

Scored 2 fewer goals than their 45.6 xG - wasting chances

-2.4

Defensive Luck

Conceding almost exactly at the 49.0 xGA opponents generate - no defensive luck either way

-0.6

Discipline

Receiving more cards than opponents - decisions going against them

-0.6

Total CLS+2

Rivalry Check

How are the rivals doing?

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook

No Significant Regression Expected

Last 5: declining|1 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds

Why?

Osasuna are right where they belong. Their CLS of +2 means results match performance. What you see is what you get.

Next Matches

05-23

Getafe

Bet