Real Sociedad

Real Sociedad CURSD Luck Score

2025-26 Season · View La Liga standings →

-1
CLS Score

Real Sociedad are getting roughly what they deserve. 42 points vs 43.38 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.

Data last updated Oct 20, 2018, 1:46 AM UTC

Key Stats

42
Points
Expected: 43.38
49
Goals Scored
xG: 43.86
48
Goals Conceded
xGA: 45.06
1.4
Points Below Expected
Unlucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 3 · 2025-08-30 · vs Oviedo · away
0-1
Lost away against Oviedo

One of those games where nothing went right. Oviedo created almost nothing - just 0.45 xG - but scored 1 goal. The model valued this match at 1.9 points for Real Sociedad. They got 0. That's 1.9 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
40'L. Dendoncker scores for Oviedo (assist: H. Hassan)
1.1
xG Created
0.45
Opp. xG
-1.9
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW3 · 2025-08-30 · vs Oviedo · Away-1.9 pts
Lost 0-1 away despite 1.1 xG. Expected 1.9 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-1 | xG: 1.1-0.45
MW8 · 2025-10-05 · vs Rayo Vallecano · Home-1.3 pts
Lost 0-1 home despite 0.8 xG. Expected 1.3 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-1 | xG: 0.79-0.8
MW4 · 2025-09-13 · vs Real Madrid · Home-1.3 pts
Lost 1-2 home despite 2.2 xG. Expected 1.3 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-2 | xG: 2.23-2.42

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW20 · 2026-01-18 · vs Barcelona · Home+2.7 pts
Won 2-1 home from 1.0 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.3 expected.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 1.01-3.68
MW26 · 2026-02-28 · vs Mallorca · Away+1.9 pts
Won 1-0 away from 0.4 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.1 expected.
Score: 1-0 | xG: 0.43-0.66
MW21 · 2026-01-25 · vs Celta Vigo · Home+1.6 pts
Won 3-1 home from 1.6 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.4 expected.
Score: 3-1 | xG: 1.61-1.6

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Finishing Luck
Scored 5 more goals than their 43.9 xG - clinical finishing
+8.5
Injury Burden
High injury burden (161 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
-5.6
Defensive Luck
Conceded 3 more goals than the 45.1 xGA opponents generated
-4.1
xPTS Gap
1 fewer points than xG simulations say they deserve
-2.2
Schedule Strength
Faced weaker-than-average opponents so far
+1.9
Discipline
Opponents picking up more cards - refereeing luck is on their side
+0.7
Shot Volume Gap
Outshooting opponents but not getting the results to match
-0.2
Total CLS-1

Rank Per Signal

Where Real Sociedad ranks among La Liga teams on each signal. #1 = most cursed.

5
Injury Burden
1
20
-5.6
6
Defensive Luck
1
20
-4.1
10
xPTS Gap
1
20
-2.2
12
Shot Volume Gap
1
20
-0.2
13
Discipline
1
20
+0.7
13
Schedule Strength
1
20
+1.9
17
Finishing Luck
1
20
+8.5

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: stable|7 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Real Sociedad are right where they belong. Their CLS of -1 means results match performance. What you see is what you get. Their remaining schedule is moderate (opponents average 11th).

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