Real Sociedad

Real Sociedad CURSD Luck Score

2025-26 season · 37 matches played · View La Liga standings →

-8
CLS Score
7th unluckiest of 20 in the La Liga

Real Sociedad are getting roughly what they deserve. 45 points vs 50.54 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

45
Points
Expected: 50.54
58
Goals Scored
xG: 52.02
60
Goals Conceded
xGA: 55.1
5.5
Points Below Expected
Unlucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 32 · 2026-04-22 · vs Getafe · at home
0-1
Lost at home against Getafe

A shutout loss that the numbers say should never have happened. Real Sociedad generated 1.89 xG, comfortably more than the 0.12 their opponent managed. Getafe created almost nothing - just 0.12 xG - but scored 1 goal. The model valued this match at 2.6 points for Real Sociedad. They got 0. That's 2.6 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
29'J. Gorrotxategi scores for Getafe
1.89
xG Created
0.12
Opp. xG
-2.6
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW32 · 2026-04-22 · vs Getafe · Home-2.6 pts
Lost 0-1 home despite 1.9 xG. Expected 2.6 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-1 | xG: 1.89-0.12
MW3 · 2025-08-30 · vs Oviedo · Away-1.9 pts
Lost 0-1 away despite 1.1 xG. Expected 1.9 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-1 | xG: 1.1-0.45
MW8 · 2025-10-05 · vs Rayo Vallecano · Home-1.3 pts
Lost 0-1 home despite 0.8 xG. Expected 1.3 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-1 | xG: 0.79-0.8

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW20 · 2026-01-18 · vs Barcelona · Home+2.7 pts
Won 2-1 home from 1.0 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.3 expected. Read match report →
Score: 2-1 | xG: 1.01-3.68
MW26 · 2026-02-28 · vs Mallorca · Away+1.9 pts
Won 1-0 away from 0.4 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.1 expected.
Score: 1-0 | xG: 0.43-0.66
MW21 · 2026-01-25 · vs Celta Vigo · Home+1.6 pts
Won 3-1 home from 1.6 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.4 expected.
Score: 3-1 | xG: 1.61-1.6

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Finishing Luck
Scored 6 more goals than their 52.0 xG - clinical finishing
+10.1
xPTS Gap
6 fewer points than xG simulations say they deserve
-9.6
Defensive Luck
Conceded 5 more goals than the 55.1 xGA opponents generated
-6.3
Injury Burden
High injury burden (188 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
-6
Schedule Strength
Faced weaker-than-average opponents so far
+4
Shot Volume Gap
Outshooting opponents but not getting the results to match
-1.7
Discipline
Opponents picking up more cards - refereeing luck is on their side
+1.5
Total CLS-8

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: stable|1 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Real Sociedad are right where they belong. Their CLS of -8 means results match performance. What you see is what you get.

Next Matches
05-23
A
Espanyol
Bet