Season

Real Sociedad CURSD Luck Score

2026-27 season · 7 matches played · View La Liga standings →

+13

CLS Score

6th luckiest of 20 in the La Liga

Real Sociedad are getting roughly what they deserve. 10 points vs 8.24 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Points

Expected: 8.24

Goals Scored

xG: 8.3

Goals Conceded

xGA: 11.65

1.8

Points Above Expected

Lucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match

Matchweek 1 · 2026-08-21 · vs Real Betis · away

0-1

Lost away against Real Betis

One of those games where nothing went right. Real Sociedad generated 1.36 xG, comfortably more than the 1.24 their opponent managed. The model valued this match at 1.4 points for Real Sociedad. They got 0. That's 1.4 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline

63'R. Riquelme scores for Real Betis (assist: C. Hernandez)

1.36

xG Created

1.24

Opp. xG

-1.4

Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW1 · 2026-08-21 · vs Real Betis · Away-1.4 pts

Lost 0-1 away despite 1.4 xG. Expected 1.5 pts, got 0.

Score: 0-1 | xG: 1.36-1.24

MW4 · 2026-09-03 · vs Celta Vigo · Home-0.9 pts

Drew 0-0 home. xG: 1.1-0.4.

Score: 0-0 | xG: 1.05-0.43

MW6 · 2026-09-13 · vs Atletico Madrid · Home-0.3 pts

Lost 0-3 home. xG: 0.3-2.0.

Score: 0-3 | xG: 0.27-2.05

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW5 · 2026-09-07 · vs Elche · Away+2.6 pts

Won 3-2 away from 0.6 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.3 expected.

Score: 3-2 | xG: 0.58-2.47

MW7 · 2026-09-20 · vs Valencia · Away+1.0 pts

Won 3-2 away from 2.6 xG. Got 3 pts vs 2.0 expected.

Score: 3-2 | xG: 2.65-1.55

MW3 · 2026-08-29 · vs Espanyol · Home+0.9 pts

Won 2-1 home. xG: 1.8-0.8.

Score: 2-1 | xG: 1.82-0.77

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Schedule Strength

Faced weaker-than-average opponents so far

+7.8

xPTS Gap

2 more points than xG simulations predict they deserve

+3.6

Injury Burden

Low injury burden (25 player-games missed) - squad depth available

+1.5

Defensive Luck

Conceded 1 more goals than the 11.7 xGA opponents generated

-1.2

Shot Volume Gap

Getting more points than their shot dominance warrants

Finishing Luck

Scored 0.7 more goals than their 8.3 xG - clinical finishing

+0.7

Discipline

Receiving more cards than opponents - decisions going against them

-0.4

Total CLS+13

Rivalry Check

How are the rivals doing?

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook

No Significant Regression Expected

Last 5: improving|31 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds

Why?

Real Sociedad are right where they belong. Their CLS of +13 means results match performance. What you see is what you get. Their next 5 opponents average 14th in the league - a favorable stretch.

Next Matches

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