Oviedo

Oviedo CURSD Luck Score

2025-26 season · 37 matches played · View La Liga standings →

-45
CLS Score
2nd unluckiest of 20 in the La Liga

Oviedo: 29 points from 37 expected, a gap of 8.3. Finishing has cost them: 10 fewer goals than their 35.8 xG should produce. 20 losses, 11 draws. The underlying numbers say this team is better than the table shows. Top driver: Finishing Luck (-14.8 CLS impact). Scored 10 fewer goals than their 35.8 xG - wasting chances

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

29
Points
Expected: 37.33
26
Goals Scored
xG: 35.79
57
Goals Conceded
xGA: 57.54
8.3
Points Below Expected
Unlucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 33 · 2026-04-26 · vs Elche · at home
1-2
Lost at home against Elche

One of those games where nothing went right. Elche created almost nothing - just 0.4 xG - but scored 2 goals. The model valued this match at 1.8 points for Oviedo. They got 0. That's 1.8 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
6'P. Bigas scores for Elche (assist: M. Aguado)
16'G. Villar scores for Elche (assist: A. Rodriguez)
76'I. Chaira scores for Oviedo (assist: A. Escandell)
90+5'Germán Valera (Elche) - Red Card
0.99
xG Created
0.4
Opp. xG
-1.8
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW33 · 2026-04-26 · vs Elche · Home-1.8 pts
Lost 1-2 home despite 1.0 xG. Expected 1.8 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-2 | xG: 0.99-0.4
MW25 · 2026-02-28 · vs Atletico Madrid · Home-1.4 pts
Lost 0-1 home despite 1.1 xG. Expected 1.4 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-1 | xG: 1.1-0.97
MW34 · 2026-05-03 · vs Real Betis · Away-1.4 pts
Lost 0-3 away despite 1.6 xG. Expected 1.4 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-3 | xG: 1.59-1.53

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW3 · 2025-08-30 · vs Real Sociedad · Home+2.2 pts
Won 1-0 home from 0.5 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.8 expected.
Score: 1-0 | xG: 0.45-1.1
MW7 · 2025-09-30 · vs Valencia · Away+2.2 pts
Won 2-1 away from 0.8 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.8 expected.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 0.77-1.51
MW30 · 2026-04-05 · vs Sevilla · Home+1.9 pts
Won 1-0 home from 0.5 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.1 expected.
Score: 1-0 | xG: 0.48-0.66

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Finishing Luck
Scored 10 fewer goals than their 35.8 xG - wasting chances
-14.8
xPTS Gap
8 fewer points than xG simulations say they deserve
-14
Schedule Strength
Faced stronger-than-average opponents - a tough draw
-6.8
Shot Volume Gap
Outshooting opponents but not getting the results to match
-6.2
Discipline
Receiving more cards than opponents - decisions going against them
-5.2
Injury Burden
Low injury burden (144 player-games missed) - squad depth available
+1.8
Defensive Luck
Conceded 0.5 fewer goals than the 57.5 xGA opponents generated
+0.2
Total CLS-45

Rivalry Check

How are the rivals doing?

Athletic Club
Athletic Club
13W-6D-18L
-66Cursed
#10 in league

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
Results Expected to Improve
Last 5: declining|1 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Oviedo are deeply cursed at -45. This level of underperformance almost never persists. The data they're generating - the chances created, the shots taken, the defensive work - all point to a team better than their record. Regression to the mean is one of the most reliable forces in sports.

Next Matches
05-23
A
Mallorca
Bet