Oviedo CURSD Luck Score

2025-26 Season · View La Liga standings →

-23

CLS Score

Oviedo can't catch a break. 27 points when the data says they deserve closer to 30.69? 16 losses, many of them undeserved based on the chances created. The numbers say better days are coming.

Data last updated Oct 20, 2018, 1:46 AM UTC

Points

Expected: 30.69

Goals Scored

xG: 30.38

Goals Conceded

xGA: 50.04

3.7

Points Below Expected

Unlucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match

Matchweek 25 · 2026-02-28 · vs Atletico Madrid · at home

0-1

Lost at home against Atletico Madrid

One of those games where nothing went right. The model valued this match at 1.4 points for Oviedo. They got 0. That's 1.4 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline

90'J. Alvarez scores for Atletico Madrid

1.1

xG Created

0.97

Opp. xG

-1.4

Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW25 · 2026-02-28 · vs Atletico Madrid · Home-1.4 pts

Lost 0-1 home despite 1.1 xG. Expected 1.4 pts, got 0.

Score: 0-1 | xG: 1.1-0.97

MW20 · 2026-01-17 · vs Osasuna · Away-1.4 pts

Lost 2-3 away despite 1.3 xG. Expected 1.4 pts, got 0.

Score: 2-3 | xG: 1.34-1.37

MW29 · 2026-03-21 · vs Levante · Away-1.1 pts

Lost 2-4 away despite 1.3 xG. Expected 1.1 pts, got 0.

Score: 2-4 | xG: 1.34-1.82

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW3 · 2025-08-30 · vs Real Sociedad · Home+2.2 pts

Won 1-0 home from 0.5 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.8 expected.

Score: 1-0 | xG: 0.45-1.1

MW7 · 2025-09-30 · vs Valencia · Away+2.2 pts

Won 2-1 away from 0.8 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.8 expected.

Score: 2-1 | xG: 0.77-1.51

MW30 · 2026-04-05 · vs Sevilla · Home+1.9 pts

Won 1-0 home from 0.5 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.1 expected.

Score: 1-0 | xG: 0.48-0.66

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Finishing Luck

Scored 6 fewer goals than their 30.4 xG - wasting chances

-9.1

xPTS Gap

4 fewer points than xG simulations say they deserve

-6.3

Discipline

Receiving more cards than opponents - decisions going against them

-4

Schedule Strength

Faced stronger-than-average opponents - a tough draw

-3.1

Shot Volume Gap

Outshooting opponents but not getting the results to match

-3

Defensive Luck

Conceded 2 fewer goals than the 50.0 xGA opponents generated

+1.7

Injury Burden

Low injury burden (123 player-games missed) - squad depth available

+0.8

Total CLS-23

Rank Per Signal

Where Oviedo ranks among La Liga teams on each signal. #1 = most cursed.

Discipline

-4

Finishing Luck

-9.1

xPTS Gap

-6.3

Shot Volume Gap

-3

Schedule Strength

-3.1

Injury Burden

+0.8

Defensive Luck

+1.7

Rivalry Check

How are the rivals doing?

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook

Improvement Probable

Last 5: improving|7 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds

Why?

At -23, Oviedo are meaningfully unlucky. They're roughly 4 points below where their performance says they deserve to be. Recent form suggests the tide is already turning.

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