Athletic Club

Athletic Club CURSD Luck Score

2025-26 season · 37 matches played · View La Liga standings →

-66
CLS Score
1st unluckiest of 20 in the La Liga

Athletic Club: 45 points from 57 expected, a gap of 11.8. Finishing has cost them: 9 fewer goals than their 49.9 xG should produce. Defensively, 14 more goals conceded than the 40.3 xGA opponents generated. 18 losses, 6 draws. The underlying numbers say this team is better than the table shows. Top driver: xPTS Gap (-19.9 CLS impact). 12 fewer points than xG simulations say they deserve

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

45
Points
Expected: 56.81
41
Goals Scored
xG: 49.88
54
Goals Conceded
xGA: 40.31
11.8
Points Below Expected
Unlucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 4 · 2025-09-13 · vs Alaves · at home
0-1
Lost at home against Alaves

One of those games where nothing went right. Alaves created almost nothing - just 0.09 xG - but scored 1 goal. The model valued this match at 2.2 points for Athletic Club. They got 0. That's 2.2 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
57'A. Berenguer scores for Alaves
1.08
xG Created
0.09
Opp. xG
-2.2
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW4 · 2025-09-13 · vs Alaves · Home-2.2 pts
Lost 0-1 home despite 1.1 xG. Expected 2.2 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-1 | xG: 1.08-0.09
MW18 · 2025-12-22 · vs Espanyol · Home-1.9 pts
Lost 1-2 home despite 1.6 xG. Expected 1.9 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-2 | xG: 1.59-0.9
MW37 · 2026-05-17 · vs Celta Vigo · Home-1.7 pts
Drew 1-1 home despite 2.5 xG. Expected 2.7 pts, got 1.
Score: 1-1 | xG: 2.49-0.15

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW32 · 2026-04-21 · vs Osasuna · Home+2.2 pts
Won 1-0 home from 0.5 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.8 expected.
Score: 1-0 | xG: 0.54-1.21
MW34 · 2026-05-02 · vs Alaves · Away+1.3 pts
Won 4-2 away from 0.9 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.7 expected.
Score: 4-2 | xG: 0.93-0.49
MW16 · 2025-12-06 · vs Atletico Madrid · Home+1.3 pts
Won 1-0 home from 1.1 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.7 expected.
Score: 1-0 | xG: 1.15-0.69

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

xPTS Gap
12 fewer points than xG simulations say they deserve
-19.9
Defensive Luck
Conceded 14 more goals than the 40.3 xGA opponents generated
-16.5
Finishing Luck
Scored 9 fewer goals than their 49.9 xG - wasting chances
-13.4
Injury Burden
High injury burden (221 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
-11.7
Shot Volume Gap
Outshooting opponents but not getting the results to match
-9.1
Schedule Strength
Faced weaker-than-average opponents so far
+6.3
Discipline
Receiving more cards than opponents - decisions going against them
-1.7
Total CLS-66

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
Results Expected to Improve
Last 5: declining|1 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Athletic Club are deeply cursed at -66. This level of underperformance almost never persists. The data they're generating - the chances created, the shots taken, the defensive work - all point to a team better than their record. Regression to the mean is one of the most reliable forces in sports.

Next Matches
05-23
A
Real Madrid
Bet