Athletic Club

Athletic Club CURSD Luck Score

2025-26 Season · View La Liga standings →

-68
CLS Score

Athletic Club: 38 points from 48 expected, a gap of 10.4. Finishing has cost them: 10 fewer goals than their 43.4 xG should produce. Defensively, 11 more goals conceded than the 34.4 xGA opponents generated. 15 losses, 5 draws. The underlying numbers say this team is better than the table shows.

Data last updated Oct 20, 2018, 1:46 AM UTC

Key Stats

38
Points
Expected: 48.43
33
Goals Scored
xG: 43.37
45
Goals Conceded
xGA: 34.42
10.4
Points Below Expected
Unlucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 4 · 2025-09-13 · vs Alaves · at home
0-1
Lost at home against Alaves

One of those games where nothing went right. Alaves created almost nothing - just 0.09 xG - but scored 1 goal. The model valued this match at 2.2 points for Athletic Club. They got 0. That's 2.2 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
57'A. Berenguer scores for Alaves
1.08
xG Created
0.09
Opp. xG
-2.2
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW4 · 2025-09-13 · vs Alaves · Home-2.2 pts
Lost 0-1 home despite 1.1 xG. Expected 2.2 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-1 | xG: 1.08-0.09
MW18 · 2025-12-22 · vs Espanyol · Home-1.9 pts
Lost 1-2 home despite 1.6 xG. Expected 1.9 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-2 | xG: 1.59-0.9
MW27 · 2026-03-07 · vs Barcelona · Home-1.7 pts
Lost 0-1 home despite 0.8 xG. Expected 1.7 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-1 | xG: 0.85-0.4

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW16 · 2025-12-06 · vs Atletico Madrid · Home+1.3 pts
Won 1-0 home from 1.1 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.7 expected.
Score: 1-0 | xG: 1.15-0.69
MW3 · 2025-08-31 · vs Real Betis · Away+1.3 pts
Won 2-1 away from 1.1 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.7 expected.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 1.11-0.62
MW29 · 2026-03-22 · vs Real Betis · Home+1.0 pts
Won 2-1 home from 1.3 xG. Got 3 pts vs 2.0 expected.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 1.26-0.47

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

xPTS Gap
10 fewer points than xG simulations say they deserve
-17.8
Finishing Luck
Scored 10 fewer goals than their 43.4 xG - wasting chances
-15.2
Defensive Luck
Conceded 11 more goals than the 34.4 xGA opponents generated
-13.6
Injury Burden
High injury burden (188 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
-10.8
Shot Volume Gap
Outshooting opponents but not getting the results to match
-7.2
Schedule Strength
Faced stronger-than-average opponents - a tough draw
-2.1
Discipline
Receiving more cards than opponents - decisions going against them
-1.3
Total CLS-68

Rank Per Signal

Where Athletic Club ranks among La Liga teams on each signal. #1 = most cursed.

1
Defensive Luck
1
20
-13.6
1
Shot Volume Gap
1
20
-7.2
2
xPTS Gap
1
20
-17.8
2
Finishing Luck
1
20
-15.2
2
Injury Burden
1
20
-10.8
7
Discipline
1
20
-1.3
9
Schedule Strength
1
20
-2.1

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
Results Expected to Improve
Last 5: declining|7 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Athletic Club are deeply cursed at -68. This level of underperformance almost never persists. The data they're generating - the chances created, the shots taken, the defensive work - all point to a team better than their record. Regression to the mean is one of the most reliable forces in sports.

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