Season

Athletic Club CURSD Luck Score

2026-27 season · 6 matches played · View La Liga standings →

-12

CLS Score

5th unluckiest of 20 in the La Liga

Athletic Club are getting roughly what they deserve. 8 points vs 11.09 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Points

Expected: 11.09

Goals Scored

xG: 9.7

Goals Conceded

xGA: 7.3

3.1

Points Below Expected

Unlucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match

Matchweek 1 · 2026-08-22 · vs Sevilla · at home

1-3

Lost at home against Sevilla

One of those games where nothing went right. Athletic Club generated 1.25 xG, comfortably more than the 0.41 their opponent managed. Sevilla created almost nothing - just 0.41 xG - but scored 3 goals. The model valued this match at 2.0 points for Athletic Club. They got 0. That's 2.0 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline

11'Yuri Berchiche (Athletic Club) - Red Card

15'Oso scores for Sevilla

50'C. Ejuke scores for Sevilla (assist: I. Romero)

57'I. Romero scores for Sevilla (assist: Oso)

70'A. Paredes scores for Athletic Club (assist: Y. Alvarez)

1.25

xG Created

0.41

Opp. xG

-2.0

Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW1 · 2026-08-22 · vs Sevilla · Home-2.0 pts

Lost 1-3 home despite 1.3 xG. Expected 2.0 pts, got 0.

Score: 1-3 | xG: 1.25-0.41

MW6 · 2026-09-19 · vs Alaves · Home-1.6 pts

Drew 0-0 home despite 1.6 xG. Expected 2.6 pts, got 1.

Score: 0-0 | xG: 1.62-0.05

MW5 · 2026-09-12 · vs Elche · Home-1.3 pts

Drew 1-1 home despite 2.4 xG. Expected 2.3 pts, got 1.

Score: 1-1 | xG: 2.39-0.84

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW4 · 2026-09-05 · vs Atletico Madrid · Home+1.4 pts

Won 3-0 home from 1.4 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.6 expected.

Score: 3-0 | xG: 1.41-1.02

MW3 · 2026-08-30 · vs Celta Vigo · Away+0.5 pts

Won 2-0 away. xG: 2.8-0.8.

Score: 2-0 | xG: 2.78-0.75

MW2 · 2026-08-27 · vs Barcelona · Away+-0.0 pts

Lost 0-2 away. xG: 0.3-4.2.

Score: 0-2 | xG: 0.25-4.23

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

xPTS Gap

3 fewer points than xG simulations say they deserve

-6

Finishing Luck

Scored 3 fewer goals than their 9.7 xG - wasting chances

-5.7

Schedule Strength

Faced weaker-than-average opponents so far

+2.4

Shot Volume Gap

Outshooting opponents but not getting the results to match

-2.2

Defensive Luck

Conceded 1 fewer goals than the 7.3 xGA opponents generated

+1.8

Injury Burden

High injury burden (37 player-games missed) - key absences hurting

-1.3

Discipline

Receiving more cards than opponents - decisions going against them

-1

Total CLS-12

Rivalry Check

How are the rivals doing?

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook

No Significant Regression Expected

Last 5: stable|32 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds

Why?

Athletic Club are right where they belong. Their CLS of -12 means results match performance. What you see is what you get. Their next 5 opponents average 14th in the league - a favorable stretch.

Next Matches

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11-01