Season2026
POR

Portland Timbers CURSD Luck Score

2026 season · 11 matches played · View mls standings →

+18
CLS Score
5th luckiest of 30 in the mls

Portland Timbers have had fortune smiling on them. The CLS says they're getting more than they deserve based on underlying performance. Not outrageous, but don't be surprised when the wheels start wobbling. Top driver: Finishing Luck (+7.5 CLS impact). Scored 6 more goals than their 12.6 xG - clinical finishing

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

13
Points
Expected: 11.16
19
Goals Scored
xG: 12.64
21
Goals Conceded
xGA: 21.19
1.8
Points Above Expected
Lucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 4 · 2026-03-15 · vs Houston Dynamo · away
2-3
Lost away against Houston Dynamo

A defeat that defied the run of play. Portland Timbers created 2.37 xG worth of chances - enough for roughly 2 goals on an average day. They scored 2. The model valued this match at 2.1 points for Portland Timbers. They got 0. That's 2.1 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
45'G. Guerra scores for Portland Timbers
62'Guilherme scores for Houston Dynamo (assist: M. Bogusz)
77'Felipe Andrade scores for Houston Dynamo (assist: Guilherme)
80'K. Velde scores for Portland Timbers (assist: F. Surman)
90+3'Nick Markanich (Houston Dynamo) - Red Card
90'M. Bogusz scores for Houston Dynamo (assist: J. McGlynn)
2.37
xG Created
1.2
Opp. xG
-2.1
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW4 · 2026-03-15 · vs Houston Dynamo · Away-2.1 pts
Lost 2-3 away despite 2.4 xG. Expected 2.1 pts, got 0.
Score: 2-3 | xG: 2.37-1.2
MW2 · 2026-02-28 · vs Colorado Rapids · Away-0.9 pts
Lost 0-2 away. xG: 1.1-1.8.
Score: 0-2 | xG: 1.1-1.83
MW8 · 2026-04-19 · vs Minnesota United FC · Away-0.9 pts
Lost 0-2 away. xG: 1.5-2.5.
Score: 0-2 | xG: 1.54-2.45

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW1 · 2026-02-22 · vs Columbus Crew · Home+1.9 pts
Won 3-2 home from 0.9 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.1 expected.
Score: 3-2 | xG: 0.94-1.25
MW9 · 2026-04-26 · vs San Diego · Away+1.8 pts
Won 2-1 away from 1.1 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.2 expected.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 1.13-1.43
MW7 · 2026-04-11 · vs Los Angeles FC · Home+1.3 pts
Won 2-1 home from 1.5 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.7 expected.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 1.52-1.03

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Finishing Luck
Scored 6 more goals than their 12.6 xG - clinical finishing
+7.5
Schedule Strength
Faced weaker-than-average opponents so far
+3.9
xPTS Gap
2 more points than xG simulations predict they deserve
+3.2
Defensive Luck
Conceding almost exactly at the 21.2 xGA opponents generate - no defensive luck either way
+1.8
Shot Volume Gap
Getting more points than their shot dominance warrants
+1
Injury Burden
Low injury burden (65 player-games missed) - squad depth available
+0.8
Discipline
Receiving more cards than opponents - decisions going against them
-0.2
Total CLS+18

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
Dip in Form Probable
Last 5: improving|27 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Portland Timbers are riding their luck at +18. They're winning games their underlying numbers don't fully support. The correction hasn't started yet, but historical patterns suggest it's coming.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available