POR

Portland Timbers CURSD Luck Score

2026 Season · View mls standings →

-4
CLS Score

Portland Timbers are getting roughly what they deserve. 7 points vs 7.57 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.

Data last updated Oct 20, 2018, 1:46 AM UTC

Key Stats

7
Points
Expected: 7.57
11
Goals Scored
xG: 8.86
18
Goals Conceded
xGA: 15.5
0.6
Points Below Expected
Unlucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 4 · 2026-03-15 · vs Houston Dynamo · away
2-3
Lost away against Houston Dynamo

A defeat that defied the run of play. Portland Timbers created 2.37 xG worth of chances - enough for roughly 2 goals on an average day. They scored 2. The model valued this match at 2.1 points for Portland Timbers. They got 0. That's 2.1 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
45'G. Guerra scores for Portland Timbers
62'Guilherme scores for Houston Dynamo (assist: M. Bogusz)
77'Felipe Andrade scores for Houston Dynamo (assist: Guilherme)
80'K. Velde scores for Portland Timbers (assist: F. Surman)
90+3'Nick Markanich (Houston Dynamo) - Red Card
90'M. Bogusz scores for Houston Dynamo (assist: J. McGlynn)
2.37
xG Created
1.2
Opp. xG
-2.1
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW4 · 2026-03-15 · vs Houston Dynamo · Away-2.1 pts
Lost 2-3 away despite 2.4 xG. Expected 2.1 pts, got 0.
Score: 2-3 | xG: 2.37-1.2
MW2 · 2026-02-28 · vs Colorado Rapids · Away-0.9 pts
Lost 0-2 away. xG: 1.1-1.8.
Score: 0-2 | xG: 1.1-1.83
MW8 · 2026-04-19 · vs Minnesota United FC · Away-0.9 pts
Lost 0-2 away. xG: 1.5-2.5.
Score: 0-2 | xG: 1.54-2.45

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW1 · 2026-02-22 · vs Columbus Crew · Home+1.9 pts
Won 3-2 home from 0.9 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.1 expected.
Score: 3-2 | xG: 0.94-1.25
MW7 · 2026-04-11 · vs Los Angeles FC · Home+1.3 pts
Won 2-1 home from 1.5 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.7 expected.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 1.52-1.03
MW5 · 2026-03-22 · vs Los Angeles Galaxy · Home+0.6 pts
Drew 1-1 home. xG: 0.4-1.8.
Score: 1-1 | xG: 0.4-1.76

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Finishing Luck
Scored 2 more goals than their 8.9 xG - clinical finishing
+2.2
xPTS Gap
0.6 fewer points than xG simulations say they deserve
-1.7
Defensive Luck
Conceded 3 more goals than the 15.5 xGA opponents generated
-1.7
Schedule Strength
Faced stronger-than-average opponents - a tough draw
-1.2
Discipline
Receiving more cards than opponents - decisions going against them
-1.1
Shot Volume Gap
Outshooting opponents but not getting the results to match
-0.6
Injury Burden
Low injury burden (42 player-games missed) - squad depth available
+0.1
Total CLS-4

Rank Per Signal

Where Portland Timbers ranks among mls teams on each signal. #1 = most cursed.

7
Discipline
1
30
-1.1
11
Defensive Luck
1
30
-1.7
13
xPTS Gap
1
30
-1.7
13
Shot Volume Gap
1
30
-0.6
13
Schedule Strength
1
30
-1.2
18
Injury Burden
1
30
+0.1
19
Finishing Luck
1
30
+2.2

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: stable|30 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Portland Timbers are right where they belong. Their CLS of -4 means results match performance. What you see is what you get.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available