Season2026
POR

Portland Timbers CURSD Luck Score

2026 season · 30 matches played · View mls standings →

-5
CLS Score
15th unluckiest of 30 in the mls

Portland Timbers are getting roughly what they deserve. 34 points vs 38.29 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

34
Points
Expected: 38.29
51
Goals Scored
xG: 41.39
56
Goals Conceded
xGA: 48.08
4.3
Points Below Expected
Unlucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 4 · 2026-03-15 · vs Houston Dynamo · away
2-3
Lost away against Houston Dynamo

A defeat that defied the run of play. Portland Timbers created 2.37 xG worth of chances - enough for roughly 2 goals on an average day. They scored 2. The model valued this match at 2.1 points for Portland Timbers. They got 0. That's 2.1 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
45+4'Kristoffer Velde scores for Portland Timbers
45'G. Guerra scores for Portland Timbers
62'Guilherme scores for Houston Dynamo (assist: M. Bogusz)
77'Felipe Andrade scores for Houston Dynamo (assist: Guilherme)
80'K. Velde scores for Portland Timbers (assist: F. Surman)
90+3'Nick Markanich (Houston Dynamo) - Red Card
90'M. Bogusz scores for Houston Dynamo (assist: J. McGlynn)
2.37
xG Created
1.2
Opp. xG
-2.1
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW4 · 2026-03-15 · vs Houston Dynamo · Away-2.1 pts
Lost 2-3 away despite 2.4 xG. Expected 2.1 pts, got 0.
Score: 2-3 | xG: 2.37-1.2
MW26 · 2026-09-20 · vs Atlanta United FC · Home-1.9 pts
Lost 0-1 home despite 1.5 xG. Expected 2.0 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-1 | xG: 1.53-0.73
MW22 · 2026-08-30 · vs Austin · Home-1.9 pts
Lost 1-2 home despite 2.0 xG. Expected 1.9 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-2 | xG: 2.03-1.18

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW1 · 2026-02-22 · vs Columbus Crew · Home+1.9 pts
Won 3-2 home from 0.9 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.1 expected.
Score: 3-2 | xG: 0.94-1.25
MW9 · 2026-04-26 · vs San Diego · Away+1.8 pts
Won 2-1 away from 1.1 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.2 expected.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 1.13-1.43
MW20 · 2026-08-20 · vs San Diego · Home+1.7 pts
Won 3-1 home from 1.5 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.3 expected.
Score: 3-1 | xG: 1.5-1.57

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

xPTS Gap
4 fewer points than xG simulations say they deserve
-8.5
Finishing Luck
Scored 10 more goals than their 41.4 xG - clinical finishing
+6.6
Discipline
Opponents picking up more cards - refereeing luck is on their side
+2.9
Defensive Luck
Conceded 8 more goals than the 48.1 xGA opponents generated
-2.6
Shot Volume Gap
Outshooting opponents but not getting the results to match
-2.6
Injury Burden
High injury burden (207 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
-2.6
Schedule Strength
Faced weaker-than-average opponents so far
+1.8
Total CLS-5

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: declining|8 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Portland Timbers are right where they belong. Their CLS of -5 means results match performance. What you see is what you get.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available