RAC

Racing Santander CURSD Luck Score

2026-27 season · 9 matches played · View La Liga standings →

+1
CLS Score
10th luckiest of 20 in the La Liga

Racing Santander are getting roughly what they deserve. 8 points vs 9.22 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

8
Points
Expected: 9.22
13
Goals Scored
xG: 11.68
25
Goals Conceded
xGA: 20.86
1.2
Points Below Expected
Unlucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 2 · 2026-08-23 · vs Getafe · away
0-1
Lost away against Getafe

One of those games where nothing went right. Racing Santander generated 1.31 xG, comfortably more than the 1.24 their opponent managed. The model valued this match at 1.4 points for Racing Santander. They got 0. That's 1.4 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
77'Andrés Martín scores for Racing Santander
81'E. Unal scores for Getafe
1.31
xG Created
1.24
Opp. xG
-1.4
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW2 · 2026-08-23 · vs Getafe · Away-1.4 pts
Lost 0-1 away despite 1.3 xG. Expected 1.4 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-1 | xG: 1.31-1.24
MW1 · 2026-08-16 · vs Villarreal · Home-1.2 pts
Drew 2-2 home despite 1.9 xG. Expected 2.2 pts, got 1.
Score: 2-2 | xG: 1.87-0.67
MW4 · 2026-09-05 · vs Rayo Vallecano · Away-0.6 pts
Lost 2-3 away. xG: 0.5-1.6.
Score: 2-3 | xG: 0.48-1.61

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW5 · 2026-09-12 · vs Alaves · Home+1.6 pts
Won 2-1 home from 2.0 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.4 expected.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 2.01-1.98
MW3 · 2026-08-28 · vs Elche · Home+1.2 pts
Won 3-2 home from 1.7 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.8 expected.
Score: 3-2 | xG: 1.72-1.03
MW8 · 2026-10-11 · vs Valencia · Home+-0.1 pts
Drew 2-2 home. xG: 1.3-1.8.
Score: 2-2 | xG: 1.28-1.8

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Injury Burden
Low injury burden (21 player-games missed) - squad depth available
+4.5
Defensive Luck
Conceded 4 more goals than the 20.9 xGA opponents generated
-4.2
Schedule Strength
Faced weaker-than-average opponents so far
+2.3
xPTS Gap
1 fewer points than xG simulations say they deserve
-1.7
Finishing Luck
Scored 1 more goals than their 11.7 xG - clinical finishing
+1
Shot Volume Gap
Outshooting opponents but not getting the results to match
-1
Discipline
Opponents picking up more cards - refereeing luck is on their side
+0.1
Total CLS+1

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: stable|29 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Racing Santander are right where they belong. Their CLS of +1 means results match performance. What you see is what you get. Their remaining schedule is moderate (opponents average 11th).

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