REA

Real Salt Lake CURSD Luck Score

2026 Season · View mls standings →

+3
CLS Score

Real Salt Lake are getting roughly what they deserve. 16 points vs 12.76 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.

Data last updated Oct 20, 2018, 1:46 AM UTC

Key Stats

16
Points
Expected: 12.76
16
Goals Scored
xG: 14.43
10
Goals Conceded
xGA: 8.52
3.2
Points Above Expected
Lucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 5 · 2026-03-22 · vs San Diego · away
2-2
Drew away against San Diego

A draw that felt like a loss. Real Salt Lake created 3.04 xG worth of chances - enough for roughly 3 goals on an average day. They scored 2. San Diego generated just 1.51 xG but made it count. The model valued this match at 2.2 points for Real Salt Lake. They got 1. That's 1.2 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
17'S. Solans scores for Real Salt Lake (assist: J. Sanabria)
27'M. Ingvartsen scores for San Diego
56'A. Dreyer scores for San Diego (assist: A. Pellegrino)
85'V. Olatunji scores for Real Salt Lake (assist: M. Guilavogui)
89'Christopher McVey (San Diego) - Red Card
3.04
xG Created
1.51
Opp. xG
-1.2
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW5 · 2026-03-22 · vs San Diego · Away-1.2 pts
Drew 2-2 away despite 3.0 xG. Expected 2.2 pts, got 1.
Score: 2-2 | xG: 3.04-1.51
MW1 · 2026-02-22 · vs Vancouver Whitecaps · Away-0.8 pts
Lost 0-1 away. xG: 0.7-1.4.
Score: 0-1 | xG: 0.67-1.36
MW6 · 2026-04-04 · vs Sporting Kansas City · Home+0.4 pts
Won 3-1 home. xG: 2.5-0.5.
Score: 3-1 | xG: 2.55-0.48

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW3 · 2026-03-08 · vs Atlanta United FC · Away+1.7 pts
Won 3-2 away from 1.1 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.3 expected.
Score: 3-2 | xG: 1.07-1.16
MW2 · 2026-03-01 · vs Seattle Sounders · Home+1.5 pts
Won 2-1 home from 1.7 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.5 expected.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 1.68-1.5
MW7 · 2026-04-19 · vs San Diego · Home+1.0 pts
Won 4-2 home. xG: 3.3-1.9.
Score: 4-2 | xG: 3.27-1.9

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Injury Burden
High injury burden (73 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
-7.5
xPTS Gap
3 more points than xG simulations predict they deserve
+5.9
Shot Volume Gap
Getting more points than their shot dominance warrants
+2.6
Schedule Strength
Faced weaker-than-average opponents so far
+1.1
Finishing Luck
Scored 2 more goals than their 14.4 xG - clinical finishing
+0.9
Defensive Luck
Conceded 1 more goals than the 8.5 xGA opponents generated
-0.4
Discipline
Opponents picking up more cards - refereeing luck is on their side
+0.4
Total CLS+3

Rank Per Signal

Where Real Salt Lake ranks among mls teams on each signal. #1 = most cursed.

3
Injury Burden
1
30
-7.5
13
Defensive Luck
1
30
-0.4
16
Finishing Luck
1
30
+0.9
18
Discipline
1
30
+0.4
18
Schedule Strength
1
30
+1.1
24
xPTS Gap
1
30
+5.9
24
Shot Volume Gap
1
30
+2.6

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: improving|31 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Real Salt Lake are right where they belong. Their CLS of +3 means results match performance. What you see is what you get.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available