Season2026
REA

Real Salt Lake CURSD Luck Score

2026 season · 11 matches played · View mls standings →

-5
CLS Score
12th unluckiest of 30 in the mls

Real Salt Lake are getting roughly what they deserve. 19 points vs 17.32 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

19
Points
Expected: 17.32
20
Goals Scored
xG: 21.05
17
Goals Conceded
xGA: 16
1.7
Points Above Expected
Lucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 5 · 2026-03-22 · vs San Diego · away
2-2
Drew away against San Diego

A draw that felt like a loss. Real Salt Lake created 3.04 xG worth of chances - enough for roughly 3 goals on an average day. They scored 2. San Diego generated just 1.51 xG but made it count. The model valued this match at 2.2 points for Real Salt Lake. They got 1. That's 1.2 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
17'S. Solans scores for Real Salt Lake (assist: J. Sanabria)
27'M. Ingvartsen scores for San Diego
56'A. Dreyer scores for San Diego (assist: A. Pellegrino)
85'V. Olatunji scores for Real Salt Lake (assist: M. Guilavogui)
89'Christopher McVey (San Diego) - Red Card
3.04
xG Created
1.51
Opp. xG
-1.2
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW5 · 2026-03-22 · vs San Diego · Away-1.2 pts
Drew 2-2 away despite 3.0 xG. Expected 2.2 pts, got 1.
Score: 2-2 | xG: 3.04-1.51
MW8 · 2026-04-23 · vs Inter Miami · Home-1.0 pts
Lost 0-2 home. xG: 1.1-1.7.
Score: 0-2 | xG: 1.07-1.67
MW1 · 2026-02-22 · vs Vancouver Whitecaps · Away-0.8 pts
Lost 0-1 away. xG: 0.7-1.4.
Score: 0-1 | xG: 0.67-1.36

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW3 · 2026-03-08 · vs Atlanta United FC · Away+1.7 pts
Won 3-2 away from 1.1 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.3 expected.
Score: 3-2 | xG: 1.07-1.16
MW2 · 2026-03-01 · vs Seattle Sounders · Home+1.5 pts
Won 2-1 home from 1.7 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.5 expected.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 1.68-1.5
MW7 · 2026-04-19 · vs San Diego · Home+1.0 pts
Won 4-2 home. xG: 3.3-1.9.
Score: 4-2 | xG: 3.27-1.9

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Injury Burden
High injury burden (96 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
-6.6
Finishing Luck
Scored 1 fewer goals than their 21.1 xG - wasting chances
-4.4
xPTS Gap
2 more points than xG simulations predict they deserve
+3
Schedule Strength
Faced weaker-than-average opponents so far
+1.1
Shot Volume Gap
Getting more points than their shot dominance warrants
+1
Defensive Luck
Conceded 1 fewer goals than the 16.0 xGA opponents generated
+0.6
Discipline
Opponents picking up more cards - refereeing luck is on their side
+0.3
Total CLS-5

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: stable|27 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Real Salt Lake are right where they belong. Their CLS of -5 means results match performance. What you see is what you get.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available