Season2026
REA

Real Salt Lake CURSD Luck Score

2026 season · 21 matches played · View mls standings →

-12
CLS Score
13th unluckiest of 30 in the mls

Real Salt Lake are getting roughly what they deserve. 28 points vs 28.61 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

28
Points
Expected: 28.61
34
Goals Scored
xG: 32.39
33
Goals Conceded
xGA: 30.61
0.6
Points Below Expected
Unlucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 15 · 2026-07-23 · vs Los Angeles FC · away
1-3
Lost away against Los Angeles FC

A defeat that defied the run of play. Real Salt Lake created 2.56 xG worth of chances - enough for roughly 3 goals on an average day. They scored 1. Los Angeles FC generated just 1.17 xG but made it count. The model valued this match at 2.2 points for Real Salt Lake. They got 0. That's 2.2 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
11'Son Heung-Min scores for Los Angeles FC
40'D. Bouanga scores for Los Angeles FC (assist: M. Choiniere)
68'D. Yedlin scores for Los Angeles FC
86'L. Engel scores for Real Salt Lake (assist: S. Lobjanidze)
2.56
xG Created
1.17
Opp. xG
-2.2
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW15 · 2026-07-23 · vs Los Angeles FC · Away-2.2 pts
Lost 1-3 away despite 2.6 xG. Expected 2.2 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-3 | xG: 2.56-1.17
MW19 · 2026-08-20 · vs FC Dallas · Home-1.3 pts
Lost 3-4 home despite 1.4 xG. Expected 1.3 pts, got 0.
Score: 3-4 | xG: 1.45-1.54
MW5 · 2026-03-22 · vs San Diego · Away-1.2 pts
Drew 2-2 away despite 3.0 xG. Expected 2.2 pts, got 1.
Score: 2-2 | xG: 3.04-1.51

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW12 · 2026-05-14 · vs Houston Dynamo · Home+2.0 pts
Won 3-0 home from 0.9 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.0 expected.
Score: 3-0 | xG: 0.95-1.39
MW3 · 2026-03-08 · vs Atlanta United FC · Away+1.7 pts
Won 3-2 away from 1.1 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.3 expected.
Score: 3-2 | xG: 1.07-1.16
MW2 · 2026-03-01 · vs Seattle Sounders · Home+1.5 pts
Won 2-1 home from 1.7 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.5 expected.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 1.68-1.5

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Injury Burden
High injury burden (182 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
-7.7
Finishing Luck
Scored 2 fewer goals than their 32.4 xG - wasting chances
-1.3
xPTS Gap
0.6 fewer points than xG simulations say they deserve
-1.2
Shot Volume Gap
Outshooting opponents but not getting the results to match
-1.1
Discipline
Receiving more cards than opponents - decisions going against them
-1.1
Schedule Strength
Faced weaker-than-average opponents so far
+0.3
Defensive Luck
Conceded 2 fewer goals than the 30.6 xGA opponents generated
+0.1
Total CLS-12

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: declining|17 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Real Salt Lake are right where they belong. Their CLS of -12 means results match performance. What you see is what you get.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available