Season2026
REA

Real Salt Lake CURSD Luck Score

2026 season · 30 matches played · View mls standings →

-37
CLS Score
3rd unluckiest of 30 in the mls

Real Salt Lake can't catch a break. 36 points when the data says they deserve closer to 40.31? 14 losses, many of them undeserved based on the chances created. The numbers say better days are coming. Top driver: Injury Burden (-14.6 CLS impact). High injury burden (293 player-games missed) - key absences hurting

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

36
Points
Expected: 40.31
45
Goals Scored
xG: 43.31
48
Goals Conceded
xGA: 41.89
4.3
Points Below Expected
Unlucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 15 · 2026-07-23 · vs Los Angeles FC · away
1-3
Lost away against Los Angeles FC

A defeat that defied the run of play. Real Salt Lake created 2.56 xG worth of chances - enough for roughly 3 goals on an average day. They scored 1. Los Angeles FC generated just 1.17 xG but made it count. The model valued this match at 2.2 points for Real Salt Lake. They got 0. That's 2.2 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
11'Son Heung-Min scores for Los Angeles FC
40'D. Bouanga scores for Los Angeles FC (assist: M. Choiniere)
68'D. Yedlin scores for Los Angeles FC
86'L. Engel scores for Real Salt Lake (assist: S. Lobjanidze)
2.56
xG Created
1.17
Opp. xG
-2.2
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW15 · 2026-07-23 · vs Los Angeles FC · Away-2.2 pts
Lost 1-3 away despite 2.6 xG. Expected 2.2 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-3 | xG: 2.56-1.17
MW24 · 2026-09-13 · vs New York City FC · Home-1.8 pts
Lost 0-2 home despite 1.1 xG. Expected 1.8 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-2 | xG: 1.09-0.51
MW23 · 2026-09-10 · vs Houston Dynamo · Away-1.5 pts
Lost 1-2 away despite 1.2 xG. Expected 1.5 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-2 | xG: 1.21-1.03

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW27 · 2026-09-27 · vs New England Revolution · Home+2.0 pts
Won 3-0 home from 0.0 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.0 expected.
Score: 3-0 | xG: 0-0
MW12 · 2026-05-14 · vs Houston Dynamo · Home+2.0 pts
Won 3-0 home from 0.9 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.0 expected.
Score: 3-0 | xG: 0.95-1.39
MW3 · 2026-03-08 · vs Atlanta United FC · Away+1.7 pts
Won 3-2 away from 1.1 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.3 expected.
Score: 3-2 | xG: 1.07-1.16

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Injury Burden
High injury burden (293 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
-14.6
xPTS Gap
4 fewer points than xG simulations say they deserve
-7.9
Finishing Luck
Scored 2 fewer goals than their 43.3 xG - wasting chances
-4.6
Schedule Strength
Faced stronger-than-average opponents - a tough draw
-4.2
Shot Volume Gap
Outshooting opponents but not getting the results to match
-3.5
Discipline
Receiving more cards than opponents - decisions going against them
-1.3
Defensive Luck
Conceded 6 more goals than the 41.9 xGA opponents generated
-0.9
Total CLS-37

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
Improvement Probable
Last 5: stable|8 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

At -37, Real Salt Lake are meaningfully unlucky. They're roughly 4 points below where their performance says they deserve to be. The underlying quality is there - results are expected to follow as luck normalizes.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available