Season2026
SAN

San Diego CURSD Luck Score

2026 season · 30 matches played · View mls standings →

-24
CLS Score
6th unluckiest of 30 in the mls

San Diego can't catch a break. 34 points when the data says they deserve closer to 41.71? 12 losses, many of them undeserved based on the chances created. The numbers say better days are coming. Top driver: xPTS Gap (-13.7 CLS impact). 8 fewer points than xG simulations say they deserve

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

34
Points
Expected: 41.71
53
Goals Scored
xG: 45.23
56
Goals Conceded
xGA: 49.11
7.7
Points Below Expected
Unlucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 16 · 2026-07-23 · vs Colorado Rapids · away
0-1
Lost away against Colorado Rapids

One of those games where nothing went right. Colorado Rapids created almost nothing - just 0.47 xG - but scored 1 goal. The model valued this match at 1.6 points for San Diego. They got 0. That's 1.6 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
90'L. Williams scores for Colorado Rapids (assist: P. Aaronson)
0.78
xG Created
0.47
Opp. xG
-1.6
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW16 · 2026-07-23 · vs Colorado Rapids · Away-1.6 pts
Lost 0-1 away despite 0.8 xG. Expected 1.6 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-1 | xG: 0.78-0.47
MW10 · 2026-04-26 · vs Portland Timbers · Home-1.6 pts
Lost 1-2 home despite 1.4 xG. Expected 1.6 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-2 | xG: 1.43-1.13
MW20 · 2026-08-20 · vs Portland Timbers · Away-1.4 pts
Lost 1-3 away despite 1.6 xG. Expected 1.4 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-3 | xG: 1.57-1.5

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW19 · 2026-08-16 · vs Los Angeles FC · Away+1.5 pts
Won 1-0 away from 1.1 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.5 expected.
Score: 1-0 | xG: 1.14-0.94
MW2 · 2026-03-02 · vs St. Louis City · Home+1.3 pts
Won 2-0 home from 0.9 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.7 expected.
Score: 2-0 | xG: 0.86-0.41
MW17 · 2026-07-26 · vs FC Dallas · Home+1.0 pts
Won 1-0 home from 1.3 xG. Got 3 pts vs 2.0 expected.
Score: 1-0 | xG: 1.29-0.48

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

xPTS Gap
8 fewer points than xG simulations say they deserve
-13.7
Schedule Strength
Faced stronger-than-average opponents - a tough draw
-12
Finishing Luck
Scored 8 more goals than their 45.2 xG - clinical finishing
+3.6
Shot Volume Gap
Outshooting opponents but not getting the results to match
-2.3
Injury Burden
Low injury burden (175 player-games missed) - squad depth available
+2.1
Defensive Luck
Conceded 7 more goals than the 49.1 xGA opponents generated
-1.5
Discipline
Receiving more cards than opponents - decisions going against them
-0.2
Total CLS-24

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
Improvement Probable
Last 5: declining|8 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

At -24, San Diego are meaningfully unlucky. They're roughly 8 points below where their performance says they deserve to be. The underlying quality is there - results are expected to follow as luck normalizes.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available