Season2026
SAN

San Diego CURSD Luck Score

2026 season · 22 matches played · View mls standings →

-7
CLS Score
14th unluckiest of 30 in the mls

San Diego are getting roughly what they deserve. 30 points vs 31.68 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

30
Points
Expected: 31.68
40
Goals Scored
xG: 33.04
33
Goals Conceded
xGA: 34.76
1.7
Points Below Expected
Unlucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 16 · 2026-07-23 · vs Colorado Rapids · away
0-1
Lost away against Colorado Rapids

One of those games where nothing went right. Colorado Rapids created almost nothing - just 0.47 xG - but scored 1 goal. The model valued this match at 1.6 points for San Diego. They got 0. That's 1.6 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
90'L. Williams scores for Colorado Rapids (assist: P. Aaronson)
0.78
xG Created
0.47
Opp. xG
-1.6
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW16 · 2026-07-23 · vs Colorado Rapids · Away-1.6 pts
Lost 0-1 away despite 0.8 xG. Expected 1.6 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-1 | xG: 0.78-0.47
MW10 · 2026-04-26 · vs Portland Timbers · Home-1.6 pts
Lost 1-2 home despite 1.4 xG. Expected 1.6 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-2 | xG: 1.43-1.13
MW20 · 2026-08-20 · vs Portland Timbers · Away-1.4 pts
Lost 1-3 away despite 1.6 xG. Expected 1.4 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-3 | xG: 1.57-1.5

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW19 · 2026-08-16 · vs Los Angeles FC · Away+1.5 pts
Won 1-0 away from 1.1 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.5 expected.
Score: 1-0 | xG: 1.14-0.94
MW2 · 2026-03-02 · vs St. Louis City · Home+1.3 pts
Won 2-0 home from 0.9 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.7 expected.
Score: 2-0 | xG: 0.86-0.41
MW17 · 2026-07-26 · vs FC Dallas · Home+1.0 pts
Won 1-0 home from 1.3 xG. Got 3 pts vs 2.0 expected.
Score: 1-0 | xG: 1.29-0.48

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Schedule Strength
Faced stronger-than-average opponents - a tough draw
-12.5
Finishing Luck
Scored 7 more goals than their 33.0 xG - clinical finishing
+6.2
Defensive Luck
Conceded 2 fewer goals than the 34.8 xGA opponents generated
+4.4
xPTS Gap
2 fewer points than xG simulations say they deserve
-3.3
Discipline
Receiving more cards than opponents - decisions going against them
-2.3
Shot Volume Gap
Getting more points than their shot dominance warrants
+0.5
Injury Burden
Low injury burden (135 player-games missed) - squad depth available
0
Total CLS-7

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: stable|16 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

San Diego are right where they belong. Their CLS of -7 means results match performance. What you see is what you get.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available