Season2026
SAN

San Diego CURSD Luck Score

2026 season · 12 matches played · View mls standings →

-12
CLS Score
8th unluckiest of 30 in the mls

San Diego are getting roughly what they deserve. 13 points vs 15.06 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

13
Points
Expected: 15.06
20
Goals Scored
xG: 17.4
20
Goals Conceded
xGA: 22.41
2.1
Points Below Expected
Unlucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 10 · 2026-04-26 · vs Portland Timbers · at home
1-2
Lost at home against Portland Timbers

One of those games where nothing went right. San Diego generated 1.43 xG, comfortably more than the 1.13 their opponent managed. The model valued this match at 1.6 points for San Diego. They got 0. That's 1.6 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
26'K. Kelsy scores for Portland Timbers
32'A. Dreyer scores for San Diego
90'A. Bonetig scores for Portland Timbers
1.43
xG Created
1.13
Opp. xG
-1.6
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW10 · 2026-04-26 · vs Portland Timbers · Home-1.6 pts
Lost 1-2 home despite 1.4 xG. Expected 1.6 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-2 | xG: 1.43-1.13
MW9 · 2026-04-23 · vs Houston Dynamo · Away-1.1 pts
Lost 0-1 away despite 1.1 xG. Expected 1.1 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-1 | xG: 1.15-1.52
MW7 · 2026-04-12 · vs Minnesota United FC · Home-1.0 pts
Lost 1-2 home despite 1.6 xG. Expected 1.0 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-2 | xG: 1.57-2.17

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW2 · 2026-03-02 · vs St. Louis City · Home+1.3 pts
Won 2-0 home from 0.9 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.7 expected.
Score: 2-0 | xG: 0.86-0.41
MW1 · 2026-02-22 · vs CF Montreal · Home+0.7 pts
Won 5-0 home. xG: 1.6-0.3.
Score: 5-0 | xG: 1.61-0.33
MW3 · 2026-03-08 · vs Sporting Kansas City · Away+0.5 pts
Won 1-0 away. xG: 2.0-0.4.
Score: 1-0 | xG: 2.02-0.36

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Injury Burden
High injury burden (95 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
-5.9
Schedule Strength
Faced stronger-than-average opponents - a tough draw
-5.4
xPTS Gap
2 fewer points than xG simulations say they deserve
-4
Defensive Luck
Conceded 2 fewer goals than the 22.4 xGA opponents generated
+3.8
Finishing Luck
Scored 3 more goals than their 17.4 xG - clinical finishing
+1.5
Discipline
Receiving more cards than opponents - decisions going against them
-1.5
Shot Volume Gap
Outshooting opponents but not getting the results to match
-0.5
Total CLS-12

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: declining|26 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

San Diego are right where they belong. Their CLS of -12 means results match performance. What you see is what you get.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available