SAN

San Diego CURSD Luck Score

2026 Season · View mls standings →

-4
CLS Score

San Diego are getting roughly what they deserve. 11 points vs 10.13 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.

Data last updated Oct 20, 2018, 1:46 AM UTC

Key Stats

11
Points
Expected: 10.13
16
Goals Scored
xG: 11.98
14
Goals Conceded
xGA: 16.05
0.9
Points Above Expected
Lucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 7 · 2026-04-12 · vs Minnesota United FC · at home
1-2
Lost at home against Minnesota United FC

One of those games where nothing went right. San Diego generated 1.57 xG, comfortably more than the 2.17 their opponent managed. The model valued this match at 1.0 points for San Diego. They got 0. That's 1.0 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
7'L. Bombino scores for San Diego (assist: L. Morgan)
15'K. Duncan scores for Minnesota United FC (assist: T. Chancalay)
40'K. Yeboah scores for Minnesota United FC
46'Christopher McVey (San Diego) - Red Card
1.57
xG Created
2.17
Opp. xG
-1.0
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW7 · 2026-04-12 · vs Minnesota United FC · Home-1.0 pts
Lost 1-2 home despite 1.6 xG. Expected 1.0 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-2 | xG: 1.57-2.17
MW8 · 2026-04-19 · vs Real Salt Lake · Away-0.8 pts
Lost 2-4 away. xG: 1.9-3.3.
Score: 2-4 | xG: 1.9-3.27
MW6 · 2026-04-05 · vs San Jose Earthquakes · Away-0.1 pts
Lost 0-3 away. xG: 0.5-3.8.
Score: 0-3 | xG: 0.47-3.76

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW2 · 2026-03-02 · vs St. Louis City · Home+1.3 pts
Won 2-0 home from 0.9 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.7 expected.
Score: 2-0 | xG: 0.86-0.41
MW1 · 2026-02-22 · vs CF Montreal · Home+0.7 pts
Won 5-0 home. xG: 1.6-0.3.
Score: 5-0 | xG: 1.61-0.33
MW3 · 2026-03-08 · vs Sporting Kansas City · Away+0.5 pts
Won 1-0 away. xG: 2.0-0.4.
Score: 1-0 | xG: 2.02-0.36

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Injury Burden
High injury burden (69 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
-6.6
Schedule Strength
Faced stronger-than-average opponents - a tough draw
-6.3
Finishing Luck
Scored 4 more goals than their 12.0 xG - clinical finishing
+4.9
Defensive Luck
Conceded 2 fewer goals than the 16.1 xGA opponents generated
+3
xPTS Gap
0.9 more points than xG simulations predict they deserve
+1.4
Discipline
Receiving more cards than opponents - decisions going against them
-1.3
Shot Volume Gap
Getting more points than their shot dominance warrants
+0.9
Total CLS-4

Rank Per Signal

Where San Diego ranks among mls teams on each signal. #1 = most cursed.

2
Schedule Strength
1
30
-6.3
4
Injury Burden
1
30
-6.6
6
Discipline
1
30
-1.3
17
xPTS Gap
1
30
+1.4
19
Shot Volume Gap
1
30
+0.9
23
Defensive Luck
1
30
+3
25
Finishing Luck
1
30
+4.9

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: stable|30 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

San Diego are right where they belong. Their CLS of -4 means results match performance. What you see is what you get.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available