Season2026
SAN

San Jose Earthquakes CURSD Luck Score

2026 season · 12 matches played · View mls standings →

+25
CLS Score
3rd luckiest of 30 in the mls

San Jose Earthquakes have had fortune smiling on them. The CLS says they're getting more than they deserve based on underlying performance. Not outrageous, but don't be surprised when the wheels start wobbling. Top driver: xPTS Gap (+13.7 CLS impact). 8 more points than xG simulations predict they deserve

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

29
Points
Expected: 21.38
27
Goals Scored
xG: 24.76
8
Goals Conceded
xGA: 12.36
7.6
Points Above Expected
Lucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 4 · 2026-03-15 · vs Seattle Sounders · at home
0-1
Lost at home against Seattle Sounders

A shutout loss that the numbers say should never have happened. San Jose Earthquakes generated 1.67 xG, comfortably more than the 0.51 their opponent managed. Seattle Sounders generated just 0.51 xG but made it count. The model valued this match at 2.2 points for San Jose Earthquakes. They got 0. That's 2.2 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
20'P. Rothrock scores for Seattle Sounders (assist: J. Ferreira)
1.67
xG Created
0.51
Opp. xG
-2.2
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW4 · 2026-03-15 · vs Seattle Sounders · Home-2.2 pts
Lost 0-1 home despite 1.7 xG. Expected 2.2 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-1 | xG: 1.67-0.51
MW11 · 2026-05-02 · vs Toronto FC · Away-0.6 pts
Drew 1-1 away. xG: 1.1-0.8.
Score: 1-1 | xG: 1.09-0.83
MW6 · 2026-04-05 · vs San Diego · Home+0.3 pts
Won 3-0 home. xG: 3.8-0.5.
Score: 3-0 | xG: 3.76-0.47

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW10 · 2026-04-26 · vs St. Louis City · Away+2.1 pts
Won 3-2 away from 1.5 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.9 expected.
Score: 3-2 | xG: 1.5-2.33
MW5 · 2026-03-22 · vs Vancouver Whitecaps · Away+1.9 pts
Won 1-0 away from 0.7 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.1 expected.
Score: 1-0 | xG: 0.66-0.98
MW3 · 2026-03-08 · vs Philadelphia Union · Away+1.9 pts
Won 1-0 away from 0.8 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.1 expected.
Score: 1-0 | xG: 0.75-1.08

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

xPTS Gap
8 more points than xG simulations predict they deserve
+13.7
Defensive Luck
Conceded 4 fewer goals than the 12.4 xGA opponents generated
+5.7
Shot Volume Gap
Getting more points than their shot dominance warrants
+5.4
Schedule Strength
Faced stronger-than-average opponents - a tough draw
-5.1
Injury Burden
Low injury burden (50 player-games missed) - squad depth available
+4.2
Finishing Luck
Scored 2 more goals than their 24.8 xG - clinical finishing
+0.9
Discipline
Opponents picking up more cards - refereeing luck is on their side
+0.2
Total CLS+25

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
Dip in Form Probable
Last 5: improving|26 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

San Jose Earthquakes are riding their luck at +25. They're winning games their underlying numbers don't fully support. The correction hasn't started yet, but historical patterns suggest it's coming.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available