Season2026
SAN

San Jose Earthquakes CURSD Luck Score

2026 season · 21 matches played · View mls standings →

-4
CLS Score
17th unluckiest of 30 in the mls

San Jose Earthquakes are getting roughly what they deserve. 34 points vs 32.36 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

34
Points
Expected: 32.36
37
Goals Scored
xG: 39.36
29
Goals Conceded
xGA: 29.98
1.6
Points Above Expected
Lucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 4 · 2026-03-15 · vs Seattle Sounders · at home
0-1
Lost at home against Seattle Sounders

A shutout loss that the numbers say should never have happened. San Jose Earthquakes generated 1.67 xG, comfortably more than the 0.51 their opponent managed. Seattle Sounders generated just 0.51 xG but made it count. The model valued this match at 2.2 points for San Jose Earthquakes. They got 0. That's 2.2 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
20'P. Rothrock scores for Seattle Sounders (assist: J. Ferreira)
1.67
xG Created
0.51
Opp. xG
-2.2
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW4 · 2026-03-15 · vs Seattle Sounders · Home-2.2 pts
Lost 0-1 home despite 1.7 xG. Expected 2.2 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-1 | xG: 1.67-0.51
MW19 · 2026-08-20 · vs Los Angeles Galaxy · Away-2.0 pts
Lost 0-1 away despite 2.4 xG. Expected 2.0 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-1 | xG: 2.36-1.35
MW17 · 2026-07-26 · vs Los Angeles Galaxy · Home-1.3 pts
Drew 1-1 home despite 3.2 xG. Expected 2.3 pts, got 1.
Score: 1-1 | xG: 3.22-1.29

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW15 · 2026-05-24 · vs Portland Timbers · Away+2.1 pts
Won 3-1 away from 1.0 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.9 expected.
Score: 3-1 | xG: 0.96-1.71
MW10 · 2026-04-26 · vs St. Louis City · Away+2.1 pts
Won 3-2 away from 1.5 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.9 expected.
Score: 3-2 | xG: 1.5-2.33
MW5 · 2026-03-22 · vs Vancouver Whitecaps · Away+1.9 pts
Won 1-0 away from 0.7 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.1 expected.
Score: 1-0 | xG: 0.66-0.98

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Schedule Strength
Faced stronger-than-average opponents - a tough draw
-8
Finishing Luck
Scored 2 fewer goals than their 39.4 xG - wasting chances
-6.9
Defensive Luck
Conceded 1.0 fewer goals than the 30.0 xGA opponents generated
+3.6
xPTS Gap
2 more points than xG simulations predict they deserve
+3.1
Injury Burden
Low injury burden (118 player-games missed) - squad depth available
+2.8
Shot Volume Gap
Getting more points than their shot dominance warrants
+1.9
Discipline
Receiving more cards than opponents - decisions going against them
-0.5
Total CLS-4

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: declining|17 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

San Jose Earthquakes are right where they belong. Their CLS of -4 means results match performance. What you see is what you get.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available