SC

SC Paderborn 07 CURSD Luck Score

2026-27 season · 4 matches played · View Bundesliga standings →

+3
CLS Score
8th luckiest of 18 in the Bundesliga

SC Paderborn 07 are getting roughly what they deserve. 4 points vs 3.22 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

4
Points
Expected: 3.22
3
Goals Scored
xG: 2.67
5
Goals Conceded
xGA: 5.73
0.8
Points Above Expected
Lucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 2 · 2026-09-05 · vs SC Freiburg · at home
0-1
Lost at home against SC Freiburg

One of those games where nothing went right. The model valued this match at 1.0 points for SC Paderborn 07. They got 0. That's 1.0 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
26'M. Eggestein scores for SC Freiburg
0.77
xG Created
1.24
Opp. xG
-1.0
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW2 · 2026-09-05 · vs SC Freiburg · Home-1.0 pts
Lost 0-1 home. xG: 0.8-1.2.
Score: 0-1 | xG: 0.77-1.24
MW3 · 2026-09-12 · vs Borussia Dortmund · Away-0.5 pts
Lost 0-3 away. xG: 0.5-1.8.
Score: 0-3 | xG: 0.49-1.76
MW1 · 2026-08-29 · vs FSV Mainz 05 · Away+0.0 pts
Drew 0-0 away. xG: 0.7-1.2.
Score: 0-0 | xG: 0.73-1.23

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW4 · 2026-09-20 · vs 1899 Hoffenheim · Home+2.2 pts
Won 3-1 home from 0.7 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.8 expected.
Score: 3-1 | xG: 0.68-1.5
MW1 · 2026-08-29 · vs FSV Mainz 05 · Away+0.0 pts
Drew 0-0 away. xG: 0.7-1.2.
Score: 0-0 | xG: 0.73-1.23
MW3 · 2026-09-12 · vs Borussia Dortmund · Away+-0.5 pts
Lost 0-3 away. xG: 0.5-1.8.
Score: 0-3 | xG: 0.49-1.76

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Schedule Strength
Faced weaker-than-average opponents so far
+2.1
xPTS Gap
0.8 more points than xG simulations predict they deserve
+1.7
Injury Burden
High injury burden (34 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
-1.3
Defensive Luck
Conceded 0.7 fewer goals than the 5.7 xGA opponents generated
+1
Finishing Luck
Scoring almost exactly at their 2.7 xG - neither clinical nor wasteful
-0.3
Shot Volume Gap
Outshooting opponents but not getting the results to match
-0.2
Discipline
Receiving more cards than opponents - decisions going against them
0
Total CLS+3

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: stable|34 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

SC Paderborn 07 are right where they belong. Their CLS of +3 means results match performance. What you see is what you get. Their next 5 opponents average 13th in the league - a favorable stretch.

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