SC
SC Paderborn 07 CURSD Luck Score
2025-26 season · 1 match played · View Bundesliga standings →
+8
CLS Score
10th luckiest of 19 in the Bundesliga
SC Paderborn 07 are getting roughly what they deserve. 1 points vs 1.01 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.
Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC
Key Stats
1
Points
Expected: 1.01
0
Goals Scored
xG: 0
0
Goals Conceded
xGA: 0
0
Points Below Expected
Unlucky gap
CLS Evolution
How the CLS has changed throughout the season
Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 1 · 2026-05-21 · vs VfL Wolfsburg · away
0-0
Drew away against VfL Wolfsburg
One of those games where nothing went right. The model valued this match at 1.0 points for SC Paderborn 07. They got 1. That's 0.0 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.
Match timeline
90+4'Jonah Sticker (SC Paderborn 07) - Red Card
0
xG Created
0
Opp. xG
-0.0
Pts Lost
Individual Games
☠ Unluckiest Matches
MW1 · 2026-05-21 · vs VfL Wolfsburg · Away-0.0 pts
Drew 0-0 away. xG: 0.0-0.0.
Score: 0-0 | xG: 0-0
✦ Luckiest Matches
MW1 · 2026-05-21 · vs VfL Wolfsburg · Away+-0.0 pts
Drew 0-0 away. xG: 0.0-0.0.
Score: 0-0 | xG: 0-0
Core Contributing Factors
What's Driving the CLS
Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.
Schedule Strength
Faced stronger-than-average opponents - a tough draw
-18.6
Injury Burden
Low injury burden (4 player-games missed) - squad depth available
+17.7
Shot Volume Gap
Getting more points than their shot dominance warrants
+10
Finishing Luck
Scored NaN fewer goals than their ? xG - wasting chances
-1.9
Defensive Luck
Conceded NaN fewer goals than the ? xGA opponents generated
+1.7
Discipline
Receiving more cards than opponents - decisions going against them
-1
xPTS Gap
Almost exactly on expected points (0.0 xPTS gap)
+0.1
Total CLS+8
Future Outlook
Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: stable|37 games left
Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.
See the oddsWhy?
SC Paderborn 07 are right where they belong. Their CLS of +8 means results match performance. What you see is what you get.
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