SC

SC Paderborn 07 CURSD Luck Score

2026-27 season · 5 matches played · View Bundesliga standings →

-6
CLS Score
8th unluckiest of 18 in the Bundesliga

SC Paderborn 07 are getting roughly what they deserve. 4 points vs 4.33 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

4
Points
Expected: 4.33
3
Goals Scored
xG: 4.58
7
Goals Conceded
xGA: 8.18
0.3
Points Below Expected
Unlucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 5 · 2026-10-10 · vs VfB Stuttgart · at home
0-2
Lost at home against VfB Stuttgart

A shutout loss that the numbers say should never have happened. SC Paderborn 07 generated 1.91 xG, comfortably more than the 2.45 their opponent managed. The model valued this match at 1.1 points for SC Paderborn 07. They got 0. That's 1.1 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
25'Jeffrey Julian Gaston Chabot scores for VfB Stuttgart (assist: Angelo Stiller)
83'Chris Führich scores for VfB Stuttgart (assist: Angelo Stiller)
1.91
xG Created
2.45
Opp. xG
-1.1
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW5 · 2026-10-10 · vs VfB Stuttgart · Home-1.1 pts
Lost 0-2 home despite 1.9 xG. Expected 1.1 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-2 | xG: 1.91-2.45
MW2 · 2026-09-05 · vs SC Freiburg · Home-1.0 pts
Lost 0-1 home. xG: 0.8-1.2.
Score: 0-1 | xG: 0.77-1.24
MW3 · 2026-09-12 · vs Borussia Dortmund · Away-0.5 pts
Lost 0-3 away. xG: 0.5-1.8.
Score: 0-3 | xG: 0.49-1.76

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW4 · 2026-09-20 · vs 1899 Hoffenheim · Home+2.2 pts
Won 3-1 home from 0.7 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.8 expected.
Score: 3-1 | xG: 0.68-1.5
MW1 · 2026-08-29 · vs FSV Mainz 05 · Away+0.0 pts
Drew 0-0 away. xG: 0.7-1.2.
Score: 0-0 | xG: 0.73-1.23
MW3 · 2026-09-12 · vs Borussia Dortmund · Away+-0.5 pts
Lost 0-3 away. xG: 0.5-1.8.
Score: 0-3 | xG: 0.49-1.76

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Finishing Luck
Scored 2 fewer goals than their 4.6 xG - wasting chances
-4.7
Schedule Strength
Faced weaker-than-average opponents so far
+2.6
Injury Burden
High injury burden (44 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
-2.3
Shot Volume Gap
Outshooting opponents but not getting the results to match
-1.5
Defensive Luck
Conceded 1 fewer goals than the 8.2 xGA opponents generated
+1.4
xPTS Gap
Almost exactly on expected points (0.3 xPTS gap)
-1.3
Discipline
Receiving more cards than opponents - decisions going against them
-0.2
Total CLS-6

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: stable|33 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

SC Paderborn 07 are right where they belong. Their CLS of -6 means results match performance. What you see is what you get. Their remaining schedule is moderate (opponents average 10th).

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