Season2026
SEA

Seattle Sounders CURSD Luck Score

2026 season · 30 matches played · View mls standings →

-1
CLS Score
19th unluckiest of 30 in the mls

Seattle Sounders are getting roughly what they deserve. 42 points vs 40.98 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

42
Points
Expected: 40.98
39
Goals Scored
xG: 40.75
37
Goals Conceded
xGA: 40.63
1
Points Above Expected
Lucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 29 · 2026-10-15 · vs FC Dallas · away
0-1
Lost away against FC Dallas

A shutout loss that the numbers say should never have happened. Seattle Sounders created 2.01 xG worth of chances - enough for roughly 2 goals on an average day. They scored 0. The model valued this match at 2.0 points for Seattle Sounders. They got 0. That's 2.0 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
63'Kaick da Silva Ferreira scores for FC Dallas (assist: Osaze Urhoghide)
2.01
xG Created
1.04
Opp. xG
-2.0
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW29 · 2026-10-15 · vs FC Dallas · Away-2.0 pts
Lost 0-1 away despite 2.0 xG. Expected 2.0 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-1 | xG: 2.01-1.04
MW15 · 2026-07-23 · vs Austin · Away-1.5 pts
Lost 1-3 away despite 1.3 xG. Expected 1.5 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-3 | xG: 1.28-1.15
MW19 · 2026-08-20 · vs Austin · Home-1.4 pts
Lost 1-2 home despite 1.2 xG. Expected 1.4 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-2 | xG: 1.23-1.12

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW4 · 2026-03-15 · vs San Jose Earthquakes · Away+2.4 pts
Won 1-0 away from 0.5 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.6 expected.
Score: 1-0 | xG: 0.51-1.67
MW26 · 2026-09-27 · vs Minnesota United FC · Home+2.0 pts
Won 3-1 home from 0.0 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.0 expected.
Score: 3-1 | xG: 0-0
MW27 · 2026-10-02 · vs Sporting Kansas City · Home+1.8 pts
Won 2-1 home from 1.7 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.2 expected.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 1.7-2.05

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Schedule Strength
Faced weaker-than-average opponents so far
+14.2
Injury Burden
High injury burden (270 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
-14
Finishing Luck
Scored 2 fewer goals than their 40.8 xG - wasting chances
-11.4
Defensive Luck
Conceded 4 fewer goals than the 40.6 xGA opponents generated
+9.2
Discipline
Receiving more cards than opponents - decisions going against them
-2.1
xPTS Gap
1 more points than xG simulations predict they deserve
+1.8
Shot Volume Gap
Getting more points than their shot dominance warrants
+1.3
Total CLS-1

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: improving|8 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Seattle Sounders are right where they belong. Their CLS of -1 means results match performance. What you see is what you get.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available