SEA

Seattle Sounders CURSD Luck Score

2026 Season · View mls standings →

+21
CLS Score

Seattle Sounders have had fortune smiling on them. The CLS says they're getting more than they deserve based on underlying performance. Not outrageous, but don't be surprised when the wheels start wobbling.

Data last updated Oct 20, 2018, 1:46 AM UTC

Key Stats

16
Points
Expected: 9.79
10
Goals Scored
xG: 7.52
3
Goals Conceded
xGA: 7.12
6.2
Points Above Expected
Lucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 2 · 2026-03-01 · vs Real Salt Lake · away
1-2
Lost away against Real Salt Lake

One of those games where nothing went right. Seattle Sounders generated 1.5 xG, comfortably more than the 1.68 their opponent managed. The model valued this match at 1.3 points for Seattle Sounders. They got 0. That's 1.3 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
23'A. Hezarkhani scores for Real Salt Lake (assist: J. Sanabria)
47'A. Piol scores for Real Salt Lake (assist: Z. Gozo)
62'C. Roldan scores for Seattle Sounders (assist: A. Rusnak)
1.5
xG Created
1.68
Opp. xG
-1.3
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW2 · 2026-03-01 · vs Real Salt Lake · Away-1.3 pts
Lost 1-2 away despite 1.5 xG. Expected 1.3 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-2 | xG: 1.5-1.68
MW5 · 2026-03-22 · vs Minnesota United FC · Away-0.1 pts
Drew 0-0 away. xG: 0.6-1.0.
Score: 0-0 | xG: 0.64-0.97
MW7 · 2026-04-19 · vs St. Louis City · Home+0.8 pts
Won 4-1 home. xG: 1.7-0.6.
Score: 4-1 | xG: 1.71-0.6

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW4 · 2026-03-15 · vs San Jose Earthquakes · Away+2.4 pts
Won 1-0 away from 0.5 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.6 expected.
Score: 1-0 | xG: 0.51-1.67
MW3 · 2026-03-08 · vs St. Louis City · Away+1.7 pts
Won 1-0 away from 0.7 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.3 expected.
Score: 1-0 | xG: 0.67-0.66
MW6 · 2026-04-05 · vs Houston Dynamo · Away+1.3 pts
Won 1-0 away from 1.4 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.7 expected.
Score: 1-0 | xG: 1.4-0.94

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

xPTS Gap
6 more points than xG simulations predict they deserve
+12.3
Defensive Luck
Conceded 4 fewer goals than the 7.1 xGA opponents generated
+5.1
Shot Volume Gap
Getting more points than their shot dominance warrants
+5
Finishing Luck
Scored 2 more goals than their 7.5 xG - clinical finishing
+2.4
Injury Burden
High injury burden (50 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
-2
Schedule Strength
Faced stronger-than-average opponents - a tough draw
-1
Discipline
Receiving more cards than opponents - decisions going against them
-0.8
Total CLS+21

Rank Per Signal

Where Seattle Sounders ranks among mls teams on each signal. #1 = most cursed.

6
Injury Burden
1
30
-2
9
Discipline
1
30
-0.8
14
Schedule Strength
1
30
-1
20
Finishing Luck
1
30
+2.4
29
Shot Volume Gap
1
30
+5
30
xPTS Gap
1
30
+12.3
30
Defensive Luck
1
30
+5.1

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
Dip in Form Probable
Last 5: improving|31 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Seattle Sounders are riding their luck at +21. They're winning games their underlying numbers don't fully support. The correction hasn't started yet, but historical patterns suggest it's coming.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available