Season2026
SEA

Seattle Sounders CURSD Luck Score

2026 season · 21 matches played · View mls standings →

-16
CLS Score
9th unluckiest of 30 in the mls

Seattle Sounders can't catch a break. 26 points when the data says they deserve closer to 27.38? 9 losses, many of them undeserved based on the chances created. The numbers say better days are coming. Top driver: Injury Burden (-12.5 CLS impact). High injury burden (213 player-games missed) - key absences hurting

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

26
Points
Expected: 27.38
24
Goals Scored
xG: 27.87
29
Goals Conceded
xGA: 29.94
1.4
Points Below Expected
Unlucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 15 · 2026-07-23 · vs Austin · away
1-3
Lost away against Austin

One of those games where nothing went right. Seattle Sounders generated 1.28 xG, comfortably more than the 1.15 their opponent managed. The model valued this match at 1.5 points for Seattle Sounders. They got 0. That's 1.5 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
11'I. Sanchez scores for Austin (assist: B. Sabovic)
26'P. Rothrock scores for Seattle Sounders
86'M. Uzuni scores for Austin (assist: E. Torres)
90+4'Jackson Ragen (Seattle Sounders) - Red Card
90'C. Ramirez scores for Austin (assist: E. Torres)
1.28
xG Created
1.15
Opp. xG
-1.5
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW15 · 2026-07-23 · vs Austin · Away-1.5 pts
Lost 1-3 away despite 1.3 xG. Expected 1.5 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-3 | xG: 1.28-1.15
MW19 · 2026-08-20 · vs Austin · Home-1.4 pts
Lost 1-2 home despite 1.2 xG. Expected 1.4 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-2 | xG: 1.23-1.12
MW2 · 2026-03-01 · vs Real Salt Lake · Away-1.3 pts
Lost 1-2 away despite 1.5 xG. Expected 1.3 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-2 | xG: 1.5-1.68

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW4 · 2026-03-15 · vs San Jose Earthquakes · Away+2.4 pts
Won 1-0 away from 0.5 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.6 expected.
Score: 1-0 | xG: 0.51-1.67
MW3 · 2026-03-08 · vs St. Louis City · Away+1.7 pts
Won 1-0 away from 0.7 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.3 expected.
Score: 1-0 | xG: 0.67-0.66
MW6 · 2026-04-05 · vs Houston Dynamo · Away+1.3 pts
Won 1-0 away from 1.4 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.7 expected.
Score: 1-0 | xG: 1.4-0.94

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Injury Burden
High injury burden (213 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
-12.5
Finishing Luck
Scored 4 fewer goals than their 27.9 xG - wasting chances
-8.8
Schedule Strength
Faced weaker-than-average opponents so far
+7.4
Defensive Luck
Conceded 0.9 fewer goals than the 29.9 xGA opponents generated
+3.5
xPTS Gap
1 fewer points than xG simulations say they deserve
-2.7
Discipline
Receiving more cards than opponents - decisions going against them
-1.9
Shot Volume Gap
Outshooting opponents but not getting the results to match
-1
Total CLS-16

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
Improvement Probable
Last 5: declining|17 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

At -16, Seattle Sounders are meaningfully unlucky. They're roughly 1 points below where their performance says they deserve to be. The underlying quality is there - results are expected to follow as luck normalizes.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available