Season2026
SEA

Seattle Sounders CURSD Luck Score

2026 season · 10 matches played · View mls standings →

+18
CLS Score
4th luckiest of 30 in the mls

Seattle Sounders have had fortune smiling on them. The CLS says they're getting more than they deserve based on underlying performance. Not outrageous, but don't be surprised when the wheels start wobbling. Top driver: xPTS Gap (+9.8 CLS impact). 5 more points than xG simulations predict they deserve

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

21
Points
Expected: 15.55
14
Goals Scored
xG: 13.66
6
Goals Conceded
xGA: 10.77
5.5
Points Above Expected
Lucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 2 · 2026-03-01 · vs Real Salt Lake · away
1-2
Lost away against Real Salt Lake

One of those games where nothing went right. Seattle Sounders generated 1.5 xG, comfortably more than the 1.68 their opponent managed. The model valued this match at 1.3 points for Seattle Sounders. They got 0. That's 1.3 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
23'A. Hezarkhani scores for Real Salt Lake (assist: J. Sanabria)
47'A. Piol scores for Real Salt Lake (assist: Z. Gozo)
62'C. Roldan scores for Seattle Sounders (assist: A. Rusnak)
1.5
xG Created
1.68
Opp. xG
-1.3
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW2 · 2026-03-01 · vs Real Salt Lake · Away-1.3 pts
Lost 1-2 away despite 1.5 xG. Expected 1.3 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-2 | xG: 1.5-1.68
MW10 · 2026-05-10 · vs San Diego · Home-0.8 pts
Drew 1-1 home. xG: 2.5-1.9.
Score: 1-1 | xG: 2.53-1.86
MW9 · 2026-05-02 · vs Sporting Kansas City · Away-0.7 pts
Drew 1-1 away. xG: 1.8-1.3.
Score: 1-1 | xG: 1.81-1.29

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW4 · 2026-03-15 · vs San Jose Earthquakes · Away+2.4 pts
Won 1-0 away from 0.5 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.6 expected.
Score: 1-0 | xG: 0.51-1.67
MW3 · 2026-03-08 · vs St. Louis City · Away+1.7 pts
Won 1-0 away from 0.7 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.3 expected.
Score: 1-0 | xG: 0.67-0.66
MW6 · 2026-04-05 · vs Houston Dynamo · Away+1.3 pts
Won 1-0 away from 1.4 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.7 expected.
Score: 1-0 | xG: 1.4-0.94

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

xPTS Gap
5 more points than xG simulations predict they deserve
+9.8
Defensive Luck
Conceded 5 fewer goals than the 10.8 xGA opponents generated
+6
Shot Volume Gap
Getting more points than their shot dominance warrants
+4.6
Schedule Strength
Faced weaker-than-average opponents so far
+4
Injury Burden
High injury burden (85 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
-3.7
Finishing Luck
Scoring almost exactly at their 13.7 xG - neither clinical nor wasteful
-2
Discipline
Receiving more cards than opponents - decisions going against them
-0.7
Total CLS+18

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
Dip in Form Probable
Last 5: stable|28 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Seattle Sounders are riding their luck at +18. They're winning games their underlying numbers don't fully support. The correction hasn't started yet, but historical patterns suggest it's coming.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available