Season2026
SEA

Seattle Sounders CURSD Luck Score

2026 season · 13 matches played · View mls standings →

+10
CLS Score
7th luckiest of 30 in the mls

Seattle Sounders are getting roughly what they deserve. 24 points vs 19.79 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

24
Points
Expected: 19.79
17
Goals Scored
xG: 19.95
11
Goals Conceded
xGA: 16.53
4.2
Points Above Expected
Lucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 2 · 2026-03-01 · vs Real Salt Lake · away
1-2
Lost away against Real Salt Lake

One of those games where nothing went right. Seattle Sounders generated 1.5 xG, comfortably more than the 1.68 their opponent managed. The model valued this match at 1.3 points for Seattle Sounders. They got 0. That's 1.3 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
23'A. Hezarkhani scores for Real Salt Lake (assist: J. Sanabria)
47'A. Piol scores for Real Salt Lake (assist: Z. Gozo)
62'C. Roldan scores for Seattle Sounders (assist: A. Rusnak)
1.5
xG Created
1.68
Opp. xG
-1.3
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW2 · 2026-03-01 · vs Real Salt Lake · Away-1.3 pts
Lost 1-2 away despite 1.5 xG. Expected 1.3 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-2 | xG: 1.5-1.68
MW13 · 2026-05-25 · vs Los Angeles FC · Away-1.1 pts
Lost 0-1 away despite 1.4 xG. Expected 1.0 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-1 | xG: 1.35-1.89
MW12 · 2026-05-17 · vs Los Angeles Galaxy · Home-1.0 pts
Lost 0-2 home. xG: 1.5-2.2.
Score: 0-2 | xG: 1.53-2.24

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW4 · 2026-03-15 · vs San Jose Earthquakes · Away+2.4 pts
Won 1-0 away from 0.5 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.6 expected.
Score: 1-0 | xG: 0.51-1.67
MW3 · 2026-03-08 · vs St. Louis City · Away+1.7 pts
Won 1-0 away from 0.7 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.3 expected.
Score: 1-0 | xG: 0.67-0.66
MW6 · 2026-04-05 · vs Houston Dynamo · Away+1.3 pts
Won 1-0 away from 1.4 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.7 expected.
Score: 1-0 | xG: 1.4-0.94

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Finishing Luck
Scored 3 fewer goals than their 19.9 xG - wasting chances
-7.9
Defensive Luck
Conceded 6 fewer goals than the 16.5 xGA opponents generated
+7.4
xPTS Gap
4 more points than xG simulations predict they deserve
+6.8
Schedule Strength
Faced weaker-than-average opponents so far
+3.7
Injury Burden
High injury burden (96 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
-3.3
Shot Volume Gap
Getting more points than their shot dominance warrants
+3.1
Discipline
Opponents picking up more cards - refereeing luck is on their side
+0.2
Total CLS+10

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: declining|25 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Seattle Sounders are right where they belong. Their CLS of +10 means results match performance. What you see is what you get.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available