Season2026
SPO

Sporting Kansas City CURSD Luck Score

2026 season · 22 matches played · View mls standings →

-28
CLS Score
3rd unluckiest of 30 in the mls

Sporting Kansas City can't catch a break. 15 points when the data says they deserve closer to 16.62? 15 losses, many of them undeserved based on the chances created. The numbers say better days are coming. Top driver: Schedule Strength (-15.7 CLS impact). Faced stronger-than-average opponents - a tough draw

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

15
Points
Expected: 16.62
20
Goals Scored
xG: 18.79
54
Goals Conceded
xGA: 46.07
1.6
Points Below Expected
Unlucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 14 · 2026-05-24 · vs New York Red Bulls · at home
1-2
Lost at home against New York Red Bulls

One of those games where nothing went right. Sporting Kansas City generated 1.69 xG, comfortably more than the 0.88 their opponent managed. The model valued this match at 1.9 points for Sporting Kansas City. They got 0. That's 1.9 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
3'J. Ruvalcaba scores for New York Red Bulls (assist: G. Berggren)
45'J. Ruvalcaba scores for New York Red Bulls (assist: J. Hall)
64'C. Harris scores for Sporting Kansas City (assist: M. Garcia)
1.69
xG Created
0.88
Opp. xG
-1.9
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW14 · 2026-05-24 · vs New York Red Bulls · Home-1.9 pts
Lost 1-2 home despite 1.7 xG. Expected 1.9 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-2 | xG: 1.69-0.88
MW20 · 2026-08-20 · vs St. Louis City · Home-1.0 pts
Drew 1-1 home. xG: 1.3-0.5.
Score: 1-1 | xG: 1.3-0.52
MW7 · 2026-04-12 · vs San Jose Earthquakes · Home-0.7 pts
Lost 1-3 home. xG: 0.8-1.7.
Score: 1-3 | xG: 0.78-1.71

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW4 · 2026-03-15 · vs Los Angeles Galaxy · Away+2.4 pts
Won 2-1 away from 0.7 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.6 expected.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 0.73-2.03
MW16 · 2026-07-23 · vs Minnesota United FC · Home+2.1 pts
Won 2-1 home from 1.1 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.9 expected.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 1.14-1.84
MW12 · 2026-05-14 · vs Los Angeles Galaxy · Home+1.0 pts
Won 3-1 home from 2.0 xG. Got 3 pts vs 2.0 expected.
Score: 3-1 | xG: 2.05-1.14

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Schedule Strength
Faced stronger-than-average opponents - a tough draw
-15.7
Defensive Luck
Conceded 8 more goals than the 46.1 xGA opponents generated
-5.6
Shot Volume Gap
Outshooting opponents but not getting the results to match
-4.2
Injury Burden
Low injury burden (112 player-games missed) - squad depth available
+3.8
xPTS Gap
2 fewer points than xG simulations say they deserve
-3.1
Finishing Luck
Scored 1 fewer goals than their 18.8 xG - wasting chances
-1.8
Discipline
Receiving more cards than opponents - decisions going against them
-1.4
Total CLS-28

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
Improvement Probable
Last 5: declining|16 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

At -28, Sporting Kansas City are meaningfully unlucky. They're roughly 2 points below where their performance says they deserve to be. The underlying quality is there - results are expected to follow as luck normalizes.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available