Season2026
SPO

Sporting Kansas City CURSD Luck Score

2026 season · 11 matches played · View mls standings →

-15
CLS Score
4th unluckiest of 30 in the mls

Sporting Kansas City are getting roughly what they deserve. 5 points vs 4.76 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one. Top driver: Schedule Strength (-7.5 CLS impact). Faced stronger-than-average opponents - a tough draw

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

5
Points
Expected: 4.76
8
Goals Scored
xG: 7.3
32
Goals Conceded
xGA: 28
0.2
Points Above Expected
Lucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 7 · 2026-04-12 · vs San Jose Earthquakes · at home
1-3
Lost at home against San Jose Earthquakes

One of those games where nothing went right. The model valued this match at 0.7 points for Sporting Kansas City. They got 0. That's 0.7 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
27'J. Bartlett scores for Sporting Kansas City
44'J. Skahan scores for San Jose Earthquakes (assist: N. Tsakiris)
49'J. Skahan scores for San Jose Earthquakes
75'D. Romney scores for San Jose Earthquakes (assist: D. Munie)
0.78
xG Created
1.71
Opp. xG
-0.7
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW7 · 2026-04-12 · vs San Jose Earthquakes · Home-0.7 pts
Lost 1-3 home. xG: 0.8-1.7.
Score: 1-3 | xG: 0.78-1.71
MW11 · 2026-05-10 · vs Portland Timbers · Away-0.6 pts
Lost 0-6 away. xG: 0.5-1.5.
Score: 0-6 | xG: 0.49-1.5
MW3 · 2026-03-08 · vs San Diego · Home-0.3 pts
Lost 0-1 home. xG: 0.4-2.0.
Score: 0-1 | xG: 0.36-2.02

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW4 · 2026-03-15 · vs Los Angeles Galaxy · Away+2.4 pts
Won 2-1 away from 0.7 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.6 expected.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 0.73-2.03
MW2 · 2026-03-01 · vs Columbus Crew · Home+0.4 pts
Drew 2-2 home. xG: 1.5-3.1.
Score: 2-2 | xG: 1.49-3.15
MW10 · 2026-05-02 · vs Seattle Sounders · Home+-0.1 pts
Drew 1-1 home. xG: 1.3-1.8.
Score: 1-1 | xG: 1.29-1.81

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Schedule Strength
Faced stronger-than-average opponents - a tough draw
-7.5
Defensive Luck
Conceded 4 more goals than the 28.0 xGA opponents generated
-2.2
Shot Volume Gap
Outshooting opponents but not getting the results to match
-2.1
Injury Burden
High injury burden (77 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
-1.9
Finishing Luck
Scored 0.7 fewer goals than their 7.3 xG - wasting chances
-1.5
xPTS Gap
Almost exactly on expected points (0.2 xPTS gap)
+0.2
Discipline
Receiving more cards than opponents - decisions going against them
0
Total CLS-15

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
Improvement Probable
Last 5: stable|27 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

At -15, Sporting Kansas City are meaningfully unlucky. They're roughly 0 points below where their performance says they deserve to be. The underlying quality is there - results are expected to follow as luck normalizes.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available