Season2026
SPO

Sporting Kansas City CURSD Luck Score

2026 season · 30 matches played · View mls standings →

-41
CLS Score
2nd unluckiest of 30 in the mls

Sporting Kansas City: 22 points from 27 expected, a gap of 4.7. Defensively, 15 more goals conceded than the 59.5 xGA opponents generated. 20 losses, 4 draws. The underlying numbers say this team is better than the table shows. Top driver: Schedule Strength (-17.3 CLS impact). Faced stronger-than-average opponents - a tough draw

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

22
Points
Expected: 26.69
36
Goals Scored
xG: 29.91
75
Goals Conceded
xGA: 59.55
4.7
Points Below Expected
Unlucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 14 · 2026-05-24 · vs New York Red Bulls · at home
1-2
Lost at home against New York Red Bulls

One of those games where nothing went right. Sporting Kansas City generated 1.69 xG, comfortably more than the 0.88 their opponent managed. The model valued this match at 1.9 points for Sporting Kansas City. They got 0. That's 1.9 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
3'J. Ruvalcaba scores for New York Red Bulls (assist: G. Berggren)
45'J. Ruvalcaba scores for New York Red Bulls (assist: J. Hall)
64'C. Harris scores for Sporting Kansas City (assist: M. Garcia)
1.69
xG Created
0.88
Opp. xG
-1.9
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW14 · 2026-05-24 · vs New York Red Bulls · Home-1.9 pts
Lost 1-2 home despite 1.7 xG. Expected 1.9 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-2 | xG: 1.69-0.88
MW23 · 2026-09-06 · vs FC Dallas · Away-1.8 pts
Lost 3-4 away despite 2.8 xG. Expected 1.8 pts, got 0.
Score: 3-4 | xG: 2.84-2.12
MW25 · 2026-09-20 · vs Philadelphia Union · Home-1.6 pts
Lost 3-4 home despite 1.0 xG. Expected 1.6 pts, got 0.
Score: 3-4 | xG: 1.01-0.65

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW4 · 2026-03-15 · vs Los Angeles Galaxy · Away+2.4 pts
Won 2-1 away from 0.7 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.6 expected.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 0.73-2.03
MW16 · 2026-07-23 · vs Minnesota United FC · Home+2.1 pts
Won 2-1 home from 1.1 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.9 expected.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 1.14-1.84
MW26 · 2026-09-27 · vs Houston Dynamo · Away+2.0 pts
Won 2-0 away from 0.0 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.0 expected.
Score: 2-0 | xG: 0-0

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Schedule Strength
Faced stronger-than-average opponents - a tough draw
-17.3
Defensive Luck
Conceded 15 more goals than the 59.5 xGA opponents generated
-8.8
xPTS Gap
5 fewer points than xG simulations say they deserve
-8.6
Shot Volume Gap
Outshooting opponents but not getting the results to match
-6.1
Finishing Luck
Scored 6 more goals than their 29.9 xG - clinical finishing
+1.3
Discipline
Receiving more cards than opponents - decisions going against them
-0.9
Injury Burden
High injury burden (194 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
-0.6
Total CLS-41

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
Results Expected to Improve
Last 5: stable|8 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Sporting Kansas City are deeply cursed at -41. This level of underperformance almost never persists. The data they're generating - the chances created, the shots taken, the defensive work - all point to a team better than their record. Regression to the mean is one of the most reliable forces in sports.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available