Strasbourg

Strasbourg Luck Index

2025-26 Season · View Ligue 1 standings →

0
Luck Index Score

Strasbourg are getting roughly what they deserve. 40 points vs 40.73 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.

40
Points
Expected: 40.73
43
Goals Scored
xG: 43.07
33
Goals Conceded
xGA: 33.03
0.7
Points Below Expected
Unlucky gap

Luck Index Evolution

How the Luck Index has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 20 · 2026-02-01 · vs Paris Saint Germain · at home
1-2
Lost at home against Paris Saint Germain

One of those games where nothing went right. Strasbourg created 2.31 xG worth of chances - enough for roughly 2 goals on an average day. They scored 1. The model valued this match at 2.0 points for Strasbourg. They got 0. That's 2.0 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
22'S. Mayulu scores for Paris Saint Germain (assist: B. Barcola)
27'G. Doue scores for Strasbourg (assist: B. Chilwell)
75'Achraf Hakimi (Paris Saint Germain) - Red Card
81'N. Mendes scores for Paris Saint Germain (assist: W. Zaire-Emery)
2.31
xG Created
1.34
Opp. xG
-2.0
Pts Lost

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW20 · 2026-02-01 · vs Paris Saint Germain · Home-2.0 pts
Lost 1-2 home despite 2.3 xG. Expected 2.0 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-2 | xG: 2.31-1.34
MW3 · 2025-08-31 · vs Monaco · Away-1.2 pts
Lost 2-3 away despite 1.6 xG. Expected 1.2 pts, got 0.
Score: 2-3 | xG: 1.62-1.94
MW14 · 2025-11-30 · vs Stade Brestois 29 · Home-1.1 pts
Lost 1-2 home despite 0.8 xG. Expected 1.1 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-2 | xG: 0.8-1.05

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW18 · 2026-01-18 · vs Metz · Home+1.6 pts
Won 2-1 home from 1.1 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.4 expected.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 1.12-1.08
MW1 · 2025-08-17 · vs Metz · Away+1.4 pts
Won 1-0 away from 0.6 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.6 expected.
Score: 1-0 | xG: 0.62-0.3
MW27 · 2026-03-22 · vs Nantes · Away+1.2 pts
Won 3-2 away from 2.3 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.8 expected.
Score: 3-2 | xG: 2.33-1.64

What's Driving the Luck Index

Each factor's contribution to the Luck Index score. These add up to the total.

xPTS Gap
1 fewer points than xG simulations say they deserve
0
Finishing Luck
Scored 0 more goals than their 43.1 xG - clinical finishing
0
Defensive Luck
Conceded 0 more goals than the 33.0 xGA opponents generated
0
Shot Volume Gap
Getting more points than their shot dominance warrants
0
Discipline
Receiving more cards than opponents - decisions going against them
0
Injury Burden
High injury burden (140 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
0
Schedule Strength
Faced weaker-than-average opponents so far
0
Total Luck Index0

Rivalry Check

How are the rivals doing?

Metz
Metz
3W-5D-19L
-58Cursed
#18 in league

What to Expect Next

Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: stable|11 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Strasbourg are right where they belong. Their Luck Index of 0 means results match performance. What you see is what you get.

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