Season

Strasbourg CURSD Luck Score

2025-26 season · 34 matches played · View Ligue 1 standings →

+23

CLS Score

6th luckiest of 20 in the Ligue 1

Strasbourg have had fortune smiling on them. The CLS says they're getting more than they deserve based on underlying performance. Not outrageous, but don't be surprised when the wheels start wobbling. Top driver: Finishing Luck (+12.4 CLS impact). Scored 4 more goals than their 54.2 xG - clinical finishing

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Points

Expected: 49.91

Goals Scored

xG: 54.19

Goals Conceded

xGA: 46.02

3.1

Points Above Expected

Lucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match

Matchweek 20 · 2026-02-01 · vs Paris Saint Germain · at home

1-2

Lost at home against Paris Saint Germain

One of those games where nothing went right. Strasbourg created 2.31 xG worth of chances - enough for roughly 2 goals on an average day. They scored 1. The model valued this match at 2.0 points for Strasbourg. They got 0. That's 2.0 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline

22'S. Mayulu scores for Paris Saint Germain (assist: B. Barcola)

27'G. Doue scores for Strasbourg (assist: B. Chilwell)

75'Achraf Hakimi (Paris Saint Germain) - Red Card

81'N. Mendes scores for Paris Saint Germain (assist: W. Zaire-Emery)

2.31

xG Created

1.34

Opp. xG

-2.0

Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW20 · 2026-02-01 · vs Paris Saint Germain · Home-2.0 pts

Lost 1-2 home despite 2.3 xG. Expected 2.0 pts, got 0.

Score: 1-2 | xG: 2.31-1.34

MW32 · 2026-05-10 · vs Angers · Away-1.3 pts

Drew 1-1 away despite 2.0 xG. Expected 2.3 pts, got 1.

Score: 1-1 | xG: 2.02-0.59

MW3 · 2025-08-31 · vs Monaco · Away-1.2 pts

Lost 2-3 away despite 1.6 xG. Expected 1.2 pts, got 0.

Score: 2-3 | xG: 1.62-1.94

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW30 · 2026-04-26 · vs Lorient · Away+2.1 pts

Won 3-2 away from 1.3 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.8 expected.

Score: 3-2 | xG: 1.34-2.28

MW33 · 2026-05-13 · vs Stade Brestois 29 · Away+2.1 pts

Won 2-1 away from 2.0 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.9 expected.

Score: 2-1 | xG: 2.02-3.06

MW18 · 2026-01-18 · vs Metz · Home+1.6 pts

Won 2-1 home from 1.1 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.4 expected.

Score: 2-1 | xG: 1.09-1.08

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Finishing Luck

Scored 4 more goals than their 54.2 xG - clinical finishing

+12.4

Schedule Strength

Faced weaker-than-average opponents so far

+10

xPTS Gap

3 more points than xG simulations predict they deserve

+5.8

Injury Burden

High injury burden (180 player-games missed) - key absences hurting

-4.8

Shot Volume Gap

Getting more points than their shot dominance warrants

+2.6

Defensive Luck

Conceded 1.0 more goals than the 46.0 xGA opponents generated

-2.1

Discipline

Receiving more cards than opponents - decisions going against them

-0.9

Total CLS+23

Rivalry Check

How are the rivals doing?

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook

Dip in Form Probable

Last 5: improving|4 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds

Why?

Strasbourg are riding their luck at +23. They're winning games their underlying numbers don't fully support. The correction hasn't started yet, but historical patterns suggest it's coming.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available