Strasbourg

Strasbourg CURSD Luck Score

2025-26 Season · View Ligue 1 standings →

+2
CLS Score

Strasbourg are getting roughly what they deserve. 43 points vs 43.61 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.

Data last updated Oct 20, 2018, 1:46 AM UTC

Key Stats

43
Points
Expected: 43.61
46
Goals Scored
xG: 46.9
37
Goals Conceded
xGA: 37.6
0.6
Points Below Expected
Unlucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 20 · 2026-02-01 · vs Paris Saint Germain · at home
1-2
Lost at home against Paris Saint Germain

One of those games where nothing went right. Strasbourg created 2.31 xG worth of chances - enough for roughly 2 goals on an average day. They scored 1. The model valued this match at 2.0 points for Strasbourg. They got 0. That's 2.0 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
22'S. Mayulu scores for Paris Saint Germain (assist: B. Barcola)
27'G. Doue scores for Strasbourg (assist: B. Chilwell)
75'Achraf Hakimi (Paris Saint Germain) - Red Card
81'N. Mendes scores for Paris Saint Germain (assist: W. Zaire-Emery)
2.31
xG Created
1.34
Opp. xG
-2.0
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW20 · 2026-02-01 · vs Paris Saint Germain · Home-2.0 pts
Lost 1-2 home despite 2.3 xG. Expected 2.0 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-2 | xG: 2.31-1.34
MW3 · 2025-08-31 · vs Monaco · Away-1.2 pts
Lost 2-3 away despite 1.6 xG. Expected 1.2 pts, got 0.
Score: 2-3 | xG: 1.62-1.94
MW14 · 2025-11-30 · vs Stade Brestois 29 · Home-1.1 pts
Lost 1-2 home despite 0.8 xG. Expected 1.1 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-2 | xG: 0.8-1.05

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW18 · 2026-01-18 · vs Metz · Home+1.6 pts
Won 2-1 home from 1.1 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.4 expected.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 1.09-1.08
MW1 · 2025-08-17 · vs Metz · Away+1.4 pts
Won 1-0 away from 0.6 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.6 expected.
Score: 1-0 | xG: 0.62-0.3
MW27 · 2026-03-22 · vs Nantes · Away+1.2 pts
Won 3-2 away from 2.3 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.8 expected.
Score: 3-2 | xG: 2.33-1.64

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Schedule Strength
Faced weaker-than-average opponents so far
+3
Shot Volume Gap
Getting more points than their shot dominance warrants
+2.1
xPTS Gap
0.6 fewer points than xG simulations say they deserve
-1.3
Finishing Luck
Scored 0.9 more goals than their 46.9 xG - clinical finishing
+1
Discipline
Receiving more cards than opponents - decisions going against them
-1
Injury Burden
High injury burden (140 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
-1
Defensive Luck
Conceded 0.6 more goals than the 37.6 xGA opponents generated
-0.8
Total CLS+2

Rank Per Signal

Where Strasbourg ranks among Ligue 1 teams on each signal. #1 = most cursed.

8
xPTS Gap
1
18
-1.3
8
Discipline
1
18
-1
9
Injury Burden
1
18
-1
10
Defensive Luck
1
18
-0.8
11
Finishing Luck
1
18
+1
13
Shot Volume Gap
1
18
+2.1
14
Schedule Strength
1
18
+3

Rivalry Check

How are the rivals doing?

Metz
Metz
3W-6D-21L
-59Cursed
#18 in league

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: stable|9 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Strasbourg are right where they belong. Their CLS of +2 means results match performance. What you see is what you get. Their remaining schedule is moderate (opponents average 10th).

Next Matches
04-26
A
Lorient
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05-03
H
Toulouse
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05-10
A
Angers
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05-13
A
Stade Brestois 29
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05-17
H
Monaco
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