Strasbourg CURSD Luck Score
2026-27 season · 5 matches played · View Ligue 1 standings →
+6
CLS Score
5th luckiest of 18 in the Ligue 1
Strasbourg are getting roughly what they deserve. 7 points vs 4.44 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.
Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC
Key Stats
7
Points
Expected: 4.44
10
Goals Scored
xG: 6.22
10
Goals Conceded
xGA: 9.81
2.6
Points Above Expected
Lucky gap
CLS Evolution
How the CLS has changed throughout the season
Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 5 · 2026-09-19 · vs Paris FC · away
1-2
Lost away against Paris FC
One of those games where nothing went right. The model valued this match at 0.6 points for Strasbourg. They got 0. That's 0.6 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.
Match timeline
18'I. Kebbal scores for Paris FC (assist: L. Sinayoko)
57'P. Pagis scores for Paris FC (assist: M. Lopez)
88'M. Mbow scores for Strasbourg
0.24
xG Created
1.05
Opp. xG
-0.6
Pts Lost
Individual Games
☠ Unluckiest Matches
MW5 · 2026-09-19 · vs Paris FC · Away-0.6 pts
Lost 1-2 away. xG: 0.2-1.1.
Score: 1-2 | xG: 0.24-1.05
MW4 · 2026-09-12 · vs Monaco · Home-0.3 pts
Drew 1-1 home. xG: 1.0-1.1.
Score: 1-1 | xG: 1.02-1.05
MW1 · 2026-08-21 · vs Marseille · Away-0.3 pts
Lost 0-4 away. xG: 0.2-1.9.
Score: 0-4 | xG: 0.18-1.86
✦ Luckiest Matches
MW2 · 2026-08-29 · vs Lens · Home+2.1 pts
Won 2-1 home from 1.8 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.9 expected.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 1.83-2.91
MW3 · 2026-09-06 · vs Estac Troyes · Away+1.6 pts
Won 6-2 away from 3.0 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.4 expected.
Score: 6-2 | xG: 2.95-2.94
MW1 · 2026-08-21 · vs Marseille · Away+-0.3 pts
Lost 0-4 away. xG: 0.2-1.9.
Score: 0-4 | xG: 0.18-1.86
Core Contributing Factors
What's Driving the CLS
Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.
Finishing Luck
Scored 4 more goals than their 6.2 xG - clinical finishing
+8
Schedule Strength
Faced stronger-than-average opponents - a tough draw
-6.1
xPTS Gap
3 more points than xG simulations predict they deserve
+4.6
Defensive Luck
Conceding almost exactly at the 9.8 xGA opponents generate - no defensive luck either way
-1
Shot Volume Gap
Getting more points than their shot dominance warrants
+1
Discipline
Receiving more cards than opponents - decisions going against them
-0.8
Injury Burden
Low injury burden (26 player-games missed) - squad depth available
+0.3
Total CLS+6
Future Outlook
Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: improving|33 games left
Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.
See the oddsWhy?
Strasbourg are right where they belong. Their CLS of +6 means results match performance. What you see is what you get. Their remaining schedule is moderate (opponents average 9th).