Strasbourg

Strasbourg CURSD Luck Score

2026-27 season · 5 matches played · View Ligue 1 standings →

+6
CLS Score
5th luckiest of 18 in the Ligue 1

Strasbourg are getting roughly what they deserve. 7 points vs 4.15 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

7
Points
Expected: 4.15
10
Goals Scored
xG: 2.01
10
Goals Conceded
xGA: 4.77
2.9
Points Above Expected
Lucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 5 · 2026-09-19 · vs Paris FC · away
1-2
Lost away against Paris FC

One of those games where nothing went right. Paris FC created almost nothing - just 0 xG - but scored 2 goals. The model valued this match at 1.0 points for Strasbourg. They got 0. That's 1.0 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
18'I. Kebbal scores for Paris FC (assist: L. Sinayoko)
57'P. Pagis scores for Paris FC (assist: M. Lopez)
88'M. Mbow scores for Strasbourg
0
xG Created
0
Opp. xG
-1.0
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW5 · 2026-09-19 · vs Paris FC · Away-1.0 pts
Lost 1-2 away despite 0.0 xG. Expected 1.0 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-2 | xG: 0-0
MW1 · 2026-08-21 · vs Marseille · Away-0.3 pts
Lost 0-4 away. xG: 0.2-1.9.
Score: 0-4 | xG: 0.18-1.86
MW4 · 2026-09-12 · vs Monaco · Home-0.0 pts
Drew 1-1 home. xG: 0.0-0.0.
Score: 1-1 | xG: 0-0

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW2 · 2026-08-29 · vs Lens · Home+2.1 pts
Won 2-1 home from 1.8 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.9 expected.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 1.83-2.91
MW3 · 2026-09-06 · vs Estac Troyes · Away+2.0 pts
Won 6-2 away from 0.0 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.0 expected.
Score: 6-2 | xG: 0-0
MW4 · 2026-09-12 · vs Monaco · Home+-0.0 pts
Drew 1-1 home. xG: 0.0-0.0.
Score: 1-1 | xG: 0-0

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Finishing Luck
Scored 8 more goals than their 2.0 xG - clinical finishing
+11.8
Schedule Strength
Faced stronger-than-average opponents - a tough draw
-6.1
Defensive Luck
Conceded 5 more goals than the 4.8 xGA opponents generated
-5.1
xPTS Gap
3 more points than xG simulations predict they deserve
+4.7
Shot Volume Gap
Getting more points than their shot dominance warrants
+1.2
Discipline
Receiving more cards than opponents - decisions going against them
-0.6
Injury Burden
Low injury burden (32 player-games missed) - squad depth available
+0.1
Total CLS+6

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: improving|33 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Strasbourg are right where they belong. Their CLS of +6 means results match performance. What you see is what you get. Their remaining schedule is moderate (opponents average 8th).

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