Sunderland CURSD Luck Score

2025-26 Season · View Premier League standings →

+33

CLS Score

Sunderland have had fortune smiling on them. The CLS says they're getting more than they deserve based on underlying performance. Not outrageous, but don't be surprised when the wheels start wobbling.

Data last updated Oct 20, 2018, 1:46 AM UTC

Points

Expected: 36.1

Goals Scored

xG: 33.86

Goals Conceded

xGA: 48.79

9.9

Points Above Expected

Lucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match

Matchweek 27 · 2026-02-22 · vs Fulham · at home

1-3

Lost at home against Fulham

One of those games where nothing went right. Sunderland generated 1.85 xG, comfortably more than the 1.88 their opponent managed. The model valued this match at 1.4 points for Sunderland. They got 0. That's 1.4 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline

54'R. Jimenez scores for Fulham (assist: A. Iwobi)

61'R. Jimenez scores for Fulham

76'E. Le Fee scores for Sunderland

85'A. Iwobi scores for Fulham (assist: H. Wilson)

1.85

xG Created

1.88

Opp. xG

-1.4

Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW27 · 2026-02-22 · vs Fulham · Home-1.4 pts

Lost 1-3 home despite 1.9 xG. Expected 1.4 pts, got 0.

Score: 1-3 | xG: 1.85-1.88

MW2 · 2025-08-23 · vs Burnley · Away-1.1 pts

Lost 0-2 away despite 0.8 xG. Expected 1.1 pts, got 0.

Score: 0-2 | xG: 0.77-1

MW33 · 2026-04-19 · vs Aston Villa · Away-0.9 pts

Lost 3-4 away. xG: 1.8-2.7.

Score: 3-4 | xG: 1.76-2.67

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW13 · 2025-11-29 · vs Bournemouth · Home+1.9 pts

Won 3-2 home from 1.3 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.1 expected.

Score: 3-2 | xG: 1.28-1.7

MW29 · 2026-03-03 · vs Leeds · Away+1.9 pts

Won 1-0 away from 0.9 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.1 expected.

Score: 1-0 | xG: 0.86-1.15

MW8 · 2025-10-18 · vs Wolves · Home+1.8 pts

Won 2-0 home from 0.7 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.2 expected.

Score: 2-0 | xG: 0.65-0.83

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

xPTS Gap

10 more points than xG simulations predict they deserve

+16.9

Defensive Luck

Conceded 9 fewer goals than the 48.8 xGA opponents generated

+9.8

Injury Burden

High injury burden (187 player-games missed) - key absences hurting

-5.8

Shot Volume Gap

Getting more points than their shot dominance warrants

+5.7

Finishing Luck

Scored 2 more goals than their 33.9 xG - clinical finishing

+4.4

Schedule Strength

Faced weaker-than-average opponents so far

+4.1

Discipline

Receiving more cards than opponents - decisions going against them

-2.1

Total CLS+33

Rank Per Signal

Where Sunderland ranks among Premier League teams on each signal. #1 = most cursed.

Injury Burden

-5.8

Discipline

-2.1

Finishing Luck

+4.4

Schedule Strength

+4.1

Shot Volume Gap

+5.7

xPTS Gap

+16.9

Defensive Luck

+9.8

Rivalry Check

How are the rivals doing?

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook

Dip in Form Probable

Last 5: improving|5 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds

Why?

Sunderland are riding their luck at +33. They're winning games their underlying numbers don't fully support. The correction hasn't started yet, but historical patterns suggest it's coming.

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