Sunderland CURSD Luck Score
2025-26 season · 37 matches played · View Premier League standings →
Sunderland have had fortune smiling on them. The CLS says they're getting more than they deserve based on underlying performance. Not outrageous, but don't be surprised when the wheels start wobbling. Top driver: xPTS Gap (+16.3 CLS impact). 10 more points than xG simulations predict they deserve
Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC
Key Stats
CLS Evolution
How the CLS has changed throughout the season
One of those games where nothing went right. Sunderland generated 1.85 xG, comfortably more than the 1.88 their opponent managed. The model valued this match at 1.4 points for Sunderland. They got 0. That's 1.4 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.
Individual Games
☠ Unluckiest Matches
✦ Luckiest Matches
Core Contributing Factors
What's Driving the CLS
Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.
Future Outlook
Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.
See the oddsSunderland are riding their luck at +32. They're winning games their underlying numbers don't fully support. The correction hasn't started yet, but historical patterns suggest it's coming.
Projected Finish
Projection blends 40% actual points-per-game with 60% expected points-per-game over the 1 games remaining. Heavier weight on xPTS because it strips out finishing variance, defensive luck, and the close-game randomness CURSD already tracks.
Fantasy Outlook
Most-Owned Attackers
| Player | Price | Owned | Goals | xG | Δ | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Xhaka MID | £5.1 | 3.2% | 1 | 1.0 | -0.0 | Finishing in line with xG |
| E.Le Fée MID | £4.8 | 1.5% | 5 | 5.1 | -0.1 | Finishing in line with xG |
| Isidor FWD | £5.0 | 1.3% | 6 | 4.6 | +1.4 | Finishing in line with xG |
| Brobbey FWD | £5.3 | 0.9% | 7 | 5.1 | +1.9 | Overperforming xG — sell candidate |
| Mayenda FWD | £5.1 | 0.5% | 2 | 2.1 | -0.1 | Finishing in line with xG |
Δ = goals − xG. Positive = overperforming finishing (often unsustainable). Negative = underperforming (often a buy).