Sunderland CURSD Luck Score
2026-27 season · 5 matches played · View Premier League standings →
Sunderland can't catch a break. 4 points when the data says they deserve closer to 5.71? 3 losses, many of them undeserved based on the chances created. The numbers say better days are coming. Top driver: Schedule Strength (-8.6 CLS impact). Faced stronger-than-average opponents - a tough draw
Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC
Key Stats
CLS Evolution
How the CLS has changed throughout the season
One of those games where nothing went right. Arsenal created almost nothing - just 0 xG - but scored 2 goals. The model valued this match at 1.0 points for Sunderland. They got 0. That's 1.0 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.
Individual Games
☠ Unluckiest Matches
✦ Luckiest Matches
Core Contributing Factors
What's Driving the CLS
Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.
Future Outlook
Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.
See the oddsAt -18, Sunderland are meaningfully unlucky. They're roughly 2 points below where their performance says they deserve to be. The underlying quality is there - results are expected to follow as luck normalizes.
Projected Finish
Projection blends 40% actual points-per-game with 60% expected points-per-game over the 33 games remaining. Heavier weight on xPTS because it strips out finishing variance, defensive luck, and the close-game randomness CURSD already tracks.
Fantasy Outlook
Most-Owned Attackers
| Player | Price | Owned | Goals | xG | Δ | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brobbey FWD | £5.7 | 6.7% | 3 | 2.9 | +0.1 | Finishing in line with xG |
| Xhaka MID | £5.5 | 3.6% | 0 | 0.1 | -0.1 | Finishing in line with xG |
| E.Le Fée MID | £5.7 | 3.3% | 1 | 2.1 | -1.1 | Underperforming xG — buy the dip |
| Isidor FWD | £5.5 | 1.3% | 1 | 1.5 | -0.5 | Finishing in line with xG |
| J.Angulo FWD | £4.5 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | Finishing in line with xG |
Δ = goals − xG. Positive = overperforming finishing (often unsustainable). Negative = underperforming (often a buy).