Newcastle

Newcastle CURSD Luck Score

2025-26 season · 37 matches played · View Premier League standings →

-18
CLS Score
7th unluckiest of 20 in the Premier League

Newcastle can't catch a break. 49 points when the data says they deserve closer to 54.94? 16 losses, many of them undeserved based on the chances created. The numbers say better days are coming. Top driver: xPTS Gap (-8.1 CLS impact). 6 fewer points than xG simulations say they deserve

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

49
Points
Expected: 54.94
53
Goals Scored
xG: 56.89
53
Goals Conceded
xGA: 49.61
5.9
Points Below Expected
Unlucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 23 · 2026-01-25 · vs Aston Villa · at home
0-2
Lost at home against Aston Villa

A shutout loss that the numbers say should never have happened. Newcastle created 2.18 xG worth of chances - enough for roughly 2 goals on an average day. They scored 0. The model valued this match at 2.0 points for Newcastle. They got 0. That's 2.0 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
19'E. Buendia scores for Aston Villa (assist: M. Rogers)
88'O. Watkins scores for Aston Villa (assist: L. Digne)
2.18
xG Created
1.16
Opp. xG
-2.0
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW23 · 2026-01-25 · vs Aston Villa · Home-2.0 pts
Lost 0-2 home despite 2.2 xG. Expected 2.0 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-2 | xG: 2.18-1.16
MW8 · 2025-10-18 · vs Brighton · Away-1.8 pts
Lost 1-2 away despite 1.4 xG. Expected 1.8 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-2 | xG: 1.45-0.91
MW25 · 2026-02-07 · vs Brentford · Home-1.6 pts
Lost 2-3 home despite 2.2 xG. Expected 1.7 pts, got 0.
Score: 2-3 | xG: 2.24-1.79

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW12 · 2025-11-22 · vs Manchester City · Home+1.7 pts
Won 2-1 home from 2.2 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.3 expected.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 2.24-2.49
MW30 · 2026-03-14 · vs Chelsea · Away+1.6 pts
Won 1-0 away from 1.4 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.4 expected.
Score: 1-0 | xG: 1.41-1.39
MW15 · 2025-12-06 · vs Burnley · Home+1.5 pts
Won 2-1 home from 1.8 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.5 expected.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 1.77-1.61

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

xPTS Gap
6 fewer points than xG simulations say they deserve
-8.1
Finishing Luck
Scored 4 fewer goals than their 56.9 xG - wasting chances
-5
Defensive Luck
Conceded 3 more goals than the 49.6 xGA opponents generated
-4.7
Injury Burden
High injury burden (188 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
-3.2
Discipline
Opponents picking up more cards - refereeing luck is on their side
+2.5
Schedule Strength
Faced weaker-than-average opponents so far
+2.4
Shot Volume Gap
Outshooting opponents but not getting the results to match
-1.9
Total CLS-18

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
Improvement Probable
Last 5: stable|1 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

At -18, Newcastle are meaningfully unlucky. They're roughly 6 points below where their performance says they deserve to be. The underlying quality is there - results are expected to follow as luck normalizes.

Next Matches
05-24
A
Fulham
Bet

Projected Finish

Projected Position
11
of 20
No change from current 11
Projected Points
50
from 49 now (+1 remaining)
Pace
1.48
expected pts per game · 1 games left

Projection blends 40% actual points-per-game with 60% expected points-per-game over the 1 games remaining. Heavier weight on xPTS because it strips out finishing variance, defensive luck, and the close-game randomness CURSD already tracks.

Fantasy Outlook

FPL Watch

Most-Owned Attackers

Live FPL data · 6h cache
Newcastle has scored 4 goals below their xG total — finishing has been cold. Their attackers are due for a bounce.
PlayerPriceOwnedGoalsxGΔVerdict
Woltemade FWD£6.76.4%86.6+1.4Finishing in line with xG
Bruno G. MID£6.96.2%95.6+3.4Overperforming xG — sell candidate
Gordon MID£7.23.2%68.8-2.8Underperforming xG — buy the dip
Elanga MID£6.52.6%01.6-1.6Underperforming xG — buy the dip
L.Miley MID£4.41.7%11.4-0.4Finishing in line with xG

Δ = goals − xG. Positive = overperforming finishing (often unsustainable). Negative = underperforming (often a buy).