Newcastle

Newcastle CURSD Luck Score

2025-26 Season · View Premier League standings →

-12
CLS Score

Newcastle are getting roughly what they deserve. 42 points vs 47.66 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.

Data last updated Oct 20, 2018, 1:46 AM UTC

Key Stats

42
Points
Expected: 47.66
46
Goals Scored
xG: 49.46
49
Goals Conceded
xGA: 45.26
5.7
Points Below Expected
Unlucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 23 · 2026-01-25 · vs Aston Villa · at home
0-2
Lost at home against Aston Villa

A shutout loss that the numbers say should never have happened. Newcastle created 2.18 xG worth of chances - enough for roughly 2 goals on an average day. They scored 0. The model valued this match at 2.0 points for Newcastle. They got 0. That's 2.0 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
19'E. Buendia scores for Aston Villa (assist: M. Rogers)
88'O. Watkins scores for Aston Villa (assist: L. Digne)
2.18
xG Created
1.16
Opp. xG
-2.0
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW23 · 2026-01-25 · vs Aston Villa · Home-2.0 pts
Lost 0-2 home despite 2.2 xG. Expected 2.0 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-2 | xG: 2.18-1.16
MW8 · 2025-10-18 · vs Brighton · Away-1.8 pts
Lost 1-2 away despite 1.4 xG. Expected 1.8 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-2 | xG: 1.45-0.91
MW25 · 2026-02-07 · vs Brentford · Home-1.6 pts
Lost 2-3 home despite 2.2 xG. Expected 1.7 pts, got 0.
Score: 2-3 | xG: 2.24-1.79

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW12 · 2025-11-22 · vs Manchester City · Home+1.7 pts
Won 2-1 home from 2.2 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.3 expected.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 2.24-2.49
MW30 · 2026-03-14 · vs Chelsea · Away+1.6 pts
Won 1-0 away from 1.4 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.4 expected.
Score: 1-0 | xG: 1.41-1.39
MW15 · 2025-12-06 · vs Burnley · Home+1.5 pts
Won 2-1 home from 1.8 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.5 expected.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 1.77-1.61

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Schedule Strength
Faced weaker-than-average opponents so far
+10.4
xPTS Gap
6 fewer points than xG simulations say they deserve
-8.9
Defensive Luck
Conceded 4 more goals than the 45.3 xGA opponents generated
-5.6
Finishing Luck
Scored 3 fewer goals than their 49.5 xG - wasting chances
-4.5
Shot Volume Gap
Outshooting opponents but not getting the results to match
-3
Injury Burden
High injury burden (165 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
-2.7
Discipline
Opponents picking up more cards - refereeing luck is on their side
+2.3
Total CLS-12

Rank Per Signal

Where Newcastle ranks among Premier League teams on each signal. #1 = most cursed.

3
Defensive Luck
1
20
-5.6
5
xPTS Gap
1
20
-8.9
6
Shot Volume Gap
1
20
-3
7
Finishing Luck
1
20
-4.5
7
Injury Burden
1
20
-2.7
16
Discipline
1
20
+2.3
18
Schedule Strength
1
20
+10.4

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: stable|5 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Newcastle are right where they belong. Their CLS of -12 means results match performance. What you see is what you get. Their remaining schedule is moderate (opponents average 11th).

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