Newcastle Luck Index

2025-26 Season · View Premier League standings →

-9

Luck Index Score

Newcastle can't catch a break. 42 points when they deserve 46.24? That's 4.24 points stolen by the football gods. 13 losses, many of them undeserved based on the chances created. If luck were a stat, they'd be bottom of the table.

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42

Points

Expected: 46.24

44

Goals Scored

xG: 46.68

45

Goals Conceded

xGA: 39.89

4.2

Points Below Expected

Unlucky gap

Luck Index Evolution

How the Luck Index has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match

Matchweek 2 · 2025-08-25 · vs Liverpool · at home

2-3

Lost at home against Liverpool

One of those games where nothing went right. The model valued this match at 1.6 points for Newcastle. They got 0. That's 1.6 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline

19'E. Buendia scores for Aston Villa (assist: M. Rogers)

88'O. Watkins scores for Aston Villa (assist: L. Digne)

0.98

xG Created

0.69

Opp. xG

-1.6

Pts Lost

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW23 · 2026-01-25 · vs Aston Villa · Home-2.0 pts

Lost 0-2 home despite 2.2 xG. Expected 2.0 pts, got 0.

Score: 0-2 | xG: 2.18-1.16

MW8 · 2025-10-18 · vs Brighton · Away-1.8 pts

Lost 1-2 away despite 1.4 xG. Expected 1.8 pts, got 0.

Score: 1-2 | xG: 1.45-0.91

MW25 · 2026-02-07 · vs Brentford · Home-1.6 pts

Lost 2-3 home despite 2.2 xG. Expected 1.7 pts, got 0.

Score: 2-3 | xG: 2.24-1.79

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW12 · 2025-11-22 · vs Manchester City · Home+1.7 pts

Won 2-1 home from 2.2 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.3 expected.

Score: 2-1 | xG: 2.24-2.49

MW30 · 2026-03-14 · vs Chelsea · Away+1.6 pts

Won 1-0 away from 1.4 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.4 expected.

Score: 1-0 | xG: 1.41-1.39

MW15 · 2025-12-06 · vs Burnley · Home+1.5 pts

Won 2-1 home from 1.8 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.5 expected.

Score: 2-1 | xG: 1.77-1.61

What's Driving the Luck Index

Each factor's contribution to the Luck Index score. These add up to the total.

Schedule Strength

Faced weaker-than-average opponents so far

+13

Defensive Luck

Conceded 5 more goals than the 39.9 xGA opponents generated

-8

xPTS Gap

4 fewer points than xG simulations say they deserve

-7

Finishing Luck

Scored 3 fewer goals than their 46.7 xG - wasting chances

-4

Injury Burden

High injury burden (157 player-games missed) - key absences hurting

-4

Discipline

Opponents picking up more cards - refereeing luck is on their side

+3

Shot Volume Gap

Outshooting opponents but not getting the results to match

-2

Total Luck Index-9

Rivalry Check

How are the rivals doing?

What to Expect Next

Regression Outlook

No Significant Regression Expected

Last 5: stable|7 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

Why?

Newcastle are right where they belong. Their Luck Index of -9 means results match performance. What you see is what you get.

Next Matches

04-12

A

Crystal Palace

04-18

H

Bournemouth

04-25

A

Arsenal

05-02

H

Brighton

05-10

A

Nottingham Forest

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