SV

SV Elversberg CURSD Luck Score

2026-27 season · 6 matches played · View Bundesliga standings →

+25
CLS Score
1st luckiest of 18 in the Bundesliga

SV Elversberg have had fortune smiling on them. The CLS says they're getting more than they deserve based on underlying performance. Not outrageous, but don't be surprised when the wheels start wobbling. Top driver: xPTS Gap (+10.2 CLS impact). 4 more points than xG simulations predict they deserve

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

10
Points
Expected: 5.96
12
Goals Scored
xG: 9.55
11
Goals Conceded
xGA: 13.13
4
Points Above Expected
Lucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 5 · 2026-10-10 · vs Union Berlin · away
0-1
Lost away against Union Berlin

One of those games where nothing went right. The model valued this match at 0.6 points for SV Elversberg. They got 0. That's 0.6 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
81'L. Burcu scores for Union Berlin
0.24
xG Created
1.13
Opp. xG
-0.6
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW5 · 2026-10-10 · vs Union Berlin · Away-0.6 pts
Lost 0-1 away. xG: 0.2-1.1.
Score: 0-1 | xG: 0.24-1.13
MW3 · 2026-09-13 · vs Bayern München · Home-0.4 pts
Lost 1-2 home. xG: 0.9-2.8.
Score: 1-2 | xG: 0.94-2.83
MW4 · 2026-09-20 · vs FC Schalke 04 · Away-0.3 pts
Drew 0-0 away. xG: 1.0-1.0.
Score: 0-0 | xG: 1.01-1.01

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW1 · 2026-08-29 · vs Bayer Leverkusen · Home+2.0 pts
Won 3-2 home from 1.3 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.0 expected.
Score: 3-2 | xG: 1.27-1.88
MW6 · 2026-10-17 · vs FC Augsburg · Home+1.8 pts
Won 4-3 home from 3.8 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.3 expected.
Score: 4-3 | xG: 3.78-3.92
MW2 · 2026-09-05 · vs Borussia Mönchengladbach · Away+1.6 pts
Won 4-3 away from 2.3 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.4 expected.
Score: 4-3 | xG: 2.31-2.36

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

xPTS Gap
4 more points than xG simulations predict they deserve
+10.2
Finishing Luck
Scored 2 more goals than their 9.6 xG - clinical finishing
+4.4
Shot Volume Gap
Getting more points than their shot dominance warrants
+3.6
Injury Burden
Low injury burden (30 player-games missed) - squad depth available
+3.1
Schedule Strength
Faced weaker-than-average opponents so far
+2.1
Defensive Luck
Conceded 2 fewer goals than the 13.1 xGA opponents generated
+2
Discipline
Receiving more cards than opponents - decisions going against them
-0.4
Total CLS+25

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
Dip in Form Probable
Last 5: improving|32 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

SV Elversberg are riding their luck at +25. They're winning games their underlying numbers don't fully support. The correction hasn't started yet, but historical patterns suggest it's coming.

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