SV

SV Elversberg CURSD Luck Score

2026-27 season · 1 match played · View Bundesliga standings →

+12
CLS Score
1st luckiest of 18 in the Bundesliga

SV Elversberg are getting roughly what they deserve. 3 points vs 1 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

3
Points
Expected: 1
3
Goals Scored
xG: 1.27
2
Goals Conceded
xGA: 1.88
2
Points Above Expected
Lucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 1 · 2026-08-29 · vs Bayer Leverkusen · at home
3-2
Won at home against Bayer Leverkusen

One of those games where nothing went right. SV Elversberg generated 1.27 xG, comfortably more than the 1.88 their opponent managed. The model valued this match at 1.0 points for SV Elversberg. They got 3. That's 2.0 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
8'L. Petkov scores for SV Elversberg (assist: F. Onyeka)
9'C. Campbell scores for SV Elversberg
46'D. Mokwa Ntusu scores for SV Elversberg (assist: L. Petkov)
77'P. Schick scores for Bayer Leverkusen (assist: I. Maza)
90'C. Kofane scores for Bayer Leverkusen
1.27
xG Created
1.88
Opp. xG
2.0
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW1 · 2026-08-29 · vs Bayer Leverkusen · Home+2.0 pts
Won 3-2 home from 1.3 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.0 expected.
Score: 3-2 | xG: 1.27-1.88

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW1 · 2026-08-29 · vs Bayer Leverkusen · Home+2.0 pts
Won 3-2 home from 1.3 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.0 expected.
Score: 3-2 | xG: 1.27-1.88

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

xPTS Gap
2 more points than xG simulations predict they deserve
+5.4
Finishing Luck
Scored 2 more goals than their 1.3 xG - clinical finishing
+3.3
Shot Volume Gap
Getting more points than their shot dominance warrants
+1.9
Injury Burden
Low injury burden (8 player-games missed) - squad depth available
+1.2
Defensive Luck
Conceding almost exactly at the 1.9 xGA opponents generate - no defensive luck either way
+0.5
Discipline
Receiving more cards than opponents - decisions going against them
-0.3
Schedule Strength
Faced stronger-than-average opponents - a tough draw
0
Total CLS+12

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: stable|37 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

SV Elversberg are right where they belong. Their CLS of +12 means results match performance. What you see is what you get. Their remaining schedule is moderate (opponents average 9th).

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