Season2026
TOR

Toronto FC CURSD Luck Score

2026 season · 22 matches played · View mls standings →

-14
CLS Score
12th unluckiest of 30 in the mls

Toronto FC are getting roughly what they deserve. 25 points vs 25.68 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

25
Points
Expected: 25.68
32
Goals Scored
xG: 23.52
38
Goals Conceded
xGA: 30.9
0.7
Points Below Expected
Unlucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 10 · 2026-04-25 · vs Atlanta United FC · at home
1-2
Lost at home against Atlanta United FC

One of those games where nothing went right. The model valued this match at 1.3 points for Toronto FC. They got 0. That's 1.3 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
48'A. Miranchuk scores for Atlanta United FC
67'T. Muyumba scores for Atlanta United FC
71'E. Aristizabal scores for Toronto FC (assist: K. Franklin)
0.64
xG Created
0.61
Opp. xG
-1.3
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW10 · 2026-04-25 · vs Atlanta United FC · Home-1.3 pts
Lost 1-2 home despite 0.6 xG. Expected 1.3 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-2 | xG: 0.64-0.61
MW8 · 2026-04-18 · vs Austin · Home-1.2 pts
Drew 3-3 home despite 3.0 xG. Expected 2.2 pts, got 1.
Score: 3-3 | xG: 3.05-1.49
MW14 · 2026-05-24 · vs Chicago Fire · Away-1.1 pts
Lost 1-2 away despite 1.4 xG. Expected 1.1 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-2 | xG: 1.4-1.77

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW19 · 2026-08-15 · vs New England Revolution · Home+2.8 pts
Won 2-1 home from 0.2 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.2 expected.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 0.24-2.22
MW21 · 2026-08-22 · vs Inter Miami · Away+2.5 pts
Won 2-1 away from 0.5 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.5 expected.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 0.51-1.83
MW3 · 2026-03-08 · vs FC Cincinnati · Away+1.8 pts
Won 1-0 away from 0.7 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.3 expected.
Score: 1-0 | xG: 0.69-0.76

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Injury Burden
High injury burden (253 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
-19.2
Finishing Luck
Scored 8 more goals than their 23.5 xG - clinical finishing
+8.3
Defensive Luck
Conceded 7 more goals than the 30.9 xGA opponents generated
-4.8
Schedule Strength
Faced weaker-than-average opponents so far
+4.4
Shot Volume Gap
Outshooting opponents but not getting the results to match
-2.4
xPTS Gap
0.7 fewer points than xG simulations say they deserve
-1.4
Discipline
Opponents picking up more cards - refereeing luck is on their side
+1.1
Total CLS-14

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: improving|16 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Toronto FC are right where they belong. Their CLS of -14 means results match performance. What you see is what you get.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available