TOR

Toronto FC CURSD Luck Score

2026 Season · View mls standings →

+1
CLS Score

Toronto FC are getting roughly what they deserve. 12 points vs 10.58 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.

Data last updated Oct 20, 2018, 1:46 AM UTC

Key Stats

12
Points
Expected: 10.58
13
Goals Scored
xG: 9.58
14
Goals Conceded
xGA: 10.39
1.4
Points Above Expected
Lucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 8 · 2026-04-18 · vs Austin · at home
3-3
Drew at home against Austin

A draw that felt like a loss. Toronto FC created 3.05 xG worth of chances - enough for roughly 3 goals on an average day. They scored 3. Austin generated just 1.49 xG but made it count. The model valued this match at 2.2 points for Toronto FC. They got 1. That's 1.2 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
29'J. Bell scores for Austin
52'D. Salloi scores for Toronto FC
67'R. Laryea scores for Toronto FC
78'F. Torres scores for Austin
82'C. Ramirez scores for Austin
88'K. Franklin scores for Toronto FC
3.05
xG Created
1.49
Opp. xG
-1.2
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW8 · 2026-04-18 · vs Austin · Home-1.2 pts
Drew 3-3 home despite 3.0 xG. Expected 2.2 pts, got 1.
Score: 3-3 | xG: 3.05-1.49
MW1 · 2026-02-22 · vs FC Dallas · Away-0.9 pts
Lost 2-3 away. xG: 1.0-1.6.
Score: 2-3 | xG: 0.99-1.61
MW2 · 2026-03-01 · vs Vancouver Whitecaps · Away-0.2 pts
Lost 0-3 away. xG: 0.3-2.9.
Score: 0-3 | xG: 0.35-2.94

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW3 · 2026-03-08 · vs FC Cincinnati · Away+1.8 pts
Won 1-0 away from 0.7 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.3 expected.
Score: 1-0 | xG: 0.69-0.76
MW5 · 2026-03-21 · vs Columbus Crew · Home+1.5 pts
Won 2-1 home from 0.9 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.5 expected.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 0.91-0.68
MW6 · 2026-04-04 · vs Colorado Rapids · Home+0.7 pts
Won 3-2 home. xG: 1.8-0.5.
Score: 3-2 | xG: 1.79-0.46

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Injury Burden
High injury burden (76 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
-10.6
Finishing Luck
Scored 3 more goals than their 9.6 xG - clinical finishing
+5
Schedule Strength
Faced weaker-than-average opponents so far
+4.3
xPTS Gap
1 more points than xG simulations predict they deserve
+3.2
Defensive Luck
Conceded 4 more goals than the 10.4 xGA opponents generated
-3.2
Discipline
Opponents picking up more cards - refereeing luck is on their side
+2.1
Shot Volume Gap
Getting more points than their shot dominance warrants
+0.2
Total CLS+1

Rank Per Signal

Where Toronto FC ranks among mls teams on each signal. #1 = most cursed.

1
Injury Burden
1
30
-10.6
8
Defensive Luck
1
30
-3.2
17
Shot Volume Gap
1
30
+0.2
20
xPTS Gap
1
30
+3.2
25
Schedule Strength
1
30
+4.3
26
Finishing Luck
1
30
+5
29
Discipline
1
30
+2.1

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: stable|30 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Toronto FC are right where they belong. Their CLS of +1 means results match performance. What you see is what you get.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available