Season2026
TOR

Toronto FC CURSD Luck Score

2026 season · 14 matches played · View mls standings →

-23
CLS Score
4th unluckiest of 30 in the mls

Toronto FC can't catch a break. 14 points when the data says they deserve closer to 17.53? 6 losses, many of them undeserved based on the chances created. The numbers say better days are coming. Top driver: Injury Burden (-19.0 CLS impact). High injury burden (166 player-games missed) - key absences hurting

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

14
Points
Expected: 17.53
22
Goals Scored
xG: 15.86
29
Goals Conceded
xGA: 18.6
3.5
Points Below Expected
Unlucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 10 · 2026-04-25 · vs Atlanta United FC · at home
1-2
Lost at home against Atlanta United FC

One of those games where nothing went right. The model valued this match at 1.3 points for Toronto FC. They got 0. That's 1.3 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
48'A. Miranchuk scores for Atlanta United FC
67'T. Muyumba scores for Atlanta United FC
71'E. Aristizabal scores for Toronto FC (assist: K. Franklin)
0.64
xG Created
0.61
Opp. xG
-1.3
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW10 · 2026-04-25 · vs Atlanta United FC · Home-1.3 pts
Lost 1-2 home despite 0.6 xG. Expected 1.3 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-2 | xG: 0.64-0.61
MW8 · 2026-04-18 · vs Austin · Home-1.2 pts
Drew 3-3 home despite 3.0 xG. Expected 2.2 pts, got 1.
Score: 3-3 | xG: 3.05-1.49
MW14 · 2026-05-24 · vs Chicago Fire · Away-1.1 pts
Lost 1-2 away despite 1.4 xG. Expected 1.1 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-2 | xG: 1.4-1.77

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW3 · 2026-03-08 · vs FC Cincinnati · Away+1.8 pts
Won 1-0 away from 0.7 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.3 expected.
Score: 1-0 | xG: 0.69-0.76
MW5 · 2026-03-21 · vs Columbus Crew · Home+1.5 pts
Won 2-1 home from 0.9 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.5 expected.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 0.91-0.68
MW6 · 2026-04-04 · vs Colorado Rapids · Home+0.7 pts
Won 3-2 home. xG: 1.8-0.5.
Score: 3-2 | xG: 1.79-0.46

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Injury Burden
High injury burden (166 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
-19
Defensive Luck
Conceded 10 more goals than the 18.6 xGA opponents generated
-8
xPTS Gap
4 fewer points than xG simulations say they deserve
-6.8
Finishing Luck
Scored 6 more goals than their 15.9 xG - clinical finishing
+6.1
Schedule Strength
Faced weaker-than-average opponents so far
+5.9
Shot Volume Gap
Outshooting opponents but not getting the results to match
-3.4
Discipline
Opponents picking up more cards - refereeing luck is on their side
+2.2
Total CLS-23

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
Improvement Probable
Last 5: declining|24 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

At -23, Toronto FC are meaningfully unlucky. They're roughly 4 points below where their performance says they deserve to be. The underlying quality is there - results are expected to follow as luck normalizes.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available