Season2026
TOR

Toronto FC CURSD Luck Score

2026 season · 30 matches played · View mls standings →

-21
CLS Score
8th unluckiest of 30 in the mls

Toronto FC can't catch a break. 36 points when the data says they deserve closer to 35.99? 10 losses, many of them undeserved based on the chances created. The numbers say better days are coming. Top driver: Injury Burden (-16.8 CLS impact). High injury burden (311 player-games missed) - key absences hurting

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

36
Points
Expected: 35.99
46
Goals Scored
xG: 35.26
55
Goals Conceded
xGA: 43.17
0
Points Above Expected
Lucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 25 · 2026-09-12 · vs Orlando City SC · away
0-3
Lost away against Orlando City SC

A shutout loss that the numbers say should never have happened. Toronto FC created 2.51 xG worth of chances - enough for roughly 3 goals on an average day. They scored 0. The model valued this match at 1.6 points for Toronto FC. They got 0. That's 1.6 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
45'A. Griezmann scores for Orlando City SC (assist: Z. Taifi)
82'H. Sarajian scores for Orlando City SC (assist: D. Dike)
90'I. Angulo scores for Orlando City SC (assist: J. Ellis)
2.51
xG Created
2.05
Opp. xG
-1.6
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW25 · 2026-09-12 · vs Orlando City SC · Away-1.6 pts
Lost 0-3 away despite 2.5 xG. Expected 1.6 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-3 | xG: 2.51-2.05
MW10 · 2026-04-25 · vs Atlanta United FC · Home-1.3 pts
Lost 1-2 home despite 0.6 xG. Expected 1.3 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-2 | xG: 0.64-0.61
MW8 · 2026-04-18 · vs Austin · Home-1.2 pts
Drew 3-3 home despite 3.0 xG. Expected 2.2 pts, got 1.
Score: 3-3 | xG: 3.05-1.49

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW19 · 2026-08-15 · vs New England Revolution · Home+2.8 pts
Won 2-1 home from 0.2 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.2 expected.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 0.24-2.22
MW21 · 2026-08-22 · vs Inter Miami · Away+2.5 pts
Won 2-1 away from 0.5 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.5 expected.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 0.51-1.83
MW30 · 2026-10-17 · vs New York Red Bulls · Away+2.0 pts
Won 2-0 away from 0.7 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.0 expected.
Score: 2-0 | xG: 0.66-1.01

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Injury Burden
High injury burden (311 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
-16.8
Finishing Luck
Scored 11 more goals than their 35.3 xG - clinical finishing
+7.5
Defensive Luck
Conceded 12 more goals than the 43.2 xGA opponents generated
-5.7
Schedule Strength
Faced stronger-than-average opponents - a tough draw
-4.2
Shot Volume Gap
Outshooting opponents but not getting the results to match
-1.5
xPTS Gap
Almost exactly on expected points (0.0 xPTS gap)
-0.3
Discipline
Receiving more cards than opponents - decisions going against them
0
Total CLS-21

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
Improvement Probable
Last 5: stable|8 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

At -21, Toronto FC are meaningfully unlucky. They're roughly 0 points below where their performance says they deserve to be. The underlying quality is there - results are expected to follow as luck normalizes.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available