VAN

Vancouver Whitecaps CURSD Luck Score

2026 Season · View mls standings →

+1
CLS Score

Vancouver Whitecaps are getting roughly what they deserve. 21 points vs 19.54 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.

Data last updated Oct 20, 2018, 1:46 AM UTC

Key Stats

21
Points
Expected: 19.54
22
Goals Scored
xG: 21.85
4
Goals Conceded
xGA: 4.5
1.5
Points Above Expected
Lucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 5 · 2026-03-22 · vs San Jose Earthquakes · at home
0-1
Lost at home against San Jose Earthquakes

One of those games where nothing went right. The model valued this match at 1.6 points for Vancouver Whitecaps. They got 0. That's 1.6 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
45'B. Leroux scores for San Jose Earthquakes
0.98
xG Created
0.66
Opp. xG
-1.6
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW5 · 2026-03-22 · vs San Jose Earthquakes · Home-1.6 pts
Lost 0-1 home despite 1.0 xG. Expected 1.6 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-1 | xG: 0.98-0.66
MW8 · 2026-04-18 · vs Sporting Kansas City · Home+0.2 pts
Won 3-0 home. xG: 3.2-0.1.
Score: 3-0 | xG: 3.17-0.13
MW2 · 2026-03-01 · vs Toronto FC · Home+0.3 pts
Won 3-0 home. xG: 2.9-0.3.
Score: 3-0 | xG: 2.94-0.35

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW1 · 2026-02-22 · vs Real Salt Lake · Home+1.1 pts
Won 1-0 home from 1.4 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.9 expected.
Score: 1-0 | xG: 1.36-0.67
MW4 · 2026-03-15 · vs Minnesota United FC · Home+0.5 pts
Won 6-0 home. xG: 4.1-1.1.
Score: 6-0 | xG: 4.08-1.07
MW7 · 2026-04-11 · vs New York City FC · Home+0.3 pts
Won 2-0 home. xG: 3.3-0.6.
Score: 2-0 | xG: 3.34-0.63

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Injury Burden
High injury burden (63 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
-10.3
Shot Volume Gap
Getting more points than their shot dominance warrants
+5.4
xPTS Gap
1 more points than xG simulations predict they deserve
+5.2
Defensive Luck
Conceded 0.5 fewer goals than the 4.5 xGA opponents generated
+3
Finishing Luck
Scoring almost exactly at their 21.9 xG - neither clinical nor wasteful
-2.9
Discipline
Opponents picking up more cards - refereeing luck is on their side
+0.7
Schedule Strength
Faced stronger-than-average opponents - a tough draw
-0.1
Total CLS+1

Rank Per Signal

Where Vancouver Whitecaps ranks among mls teams on each signal. #1 = most cursed.

2
Injury Burden
1
30
-10.3
10
Finishing Luck
1
30
-2.9
16
Schedule Strength
1
30
-0.1
21
xPTS Gap
1
30
+5.2
22
Discipline
1
30
+0.7
23
Defensive Luck
1
30
+3
30
Shot Volume Gap
1
30
+5.4

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: stable|30 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Vancouver Whitecaps are right where they belong. Their CLS of +1 means results match performance. What you see is what you get.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available