Season2026
VAN

Vancouver Whitecaps CURSD Luck Score

2026 season · 14 matches played · View mls standings →

-9
CLS Score
10th unluckiest of 30 in the mls

Vancouver Whitecaps are getting roughly what they deserve. 32 points vs 30.4 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

32
Points
Expected: 30.4
34
Goals Scored
xG: 35.35
12
Goals Conceded
xGA: 11.83
1.6
Points Above Expected
Lucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 5 · 2026-03-22 · vs San Jose Earthquakes · at home
0-1
Lost at home against San Jose Earthquakes

One of those games where nothing went right. The model valued this match at 1.6 points for Vancouver Whitecaps. They got 0. That's 1.6 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
45'B. Leroux scores for San Jose Earthquakes
0.98
xG Created
0.66
Opp. xG
-1.6
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW5 · 2026-03-22 · vs San Jose Earthquakes · Home-1.6 pts
Lost 0-1 home despite 1.0 xG. Expected 1.6 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-1 | xG: 0.98-0.66
MW11 · 2026-05-10 · vs San Jose Earthquakes · Away-1.1 pts
Drew 1-1 away despite 2.2 xG. Expected 2.1 pts, got 1.
Score: 1-1 | xG: 2.23-1.02
MW10 · 2026-05-03 · vs Los Angeles Galaxy · Away-1.1 pts
Drew 1-1 away despite 2.6 xG. Expected 2.1 pts, got 1.
Score: 1-1 | xG: 2.61-1.38

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW12 · 2026-05-14 · vs FC Dallas · Away+2.2 pts
Won 3-2 away from 0.7 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.8 expected.
Score: 3-2 | xG: 0.67-1.35
MW1 · 2026-02-22 · vs Real Salt Lake · Home+1.1 pts
Won 1-0 home from 1.4 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.9 expected.
Score: 1-0 | xG: 1.36-0.67
MW9 · 2026-04-26 · vs Colorado Rapids · Home+0.7 pts
Won 3-1 home. xG: 3.5-1.5.
Score: 3-1 | xG: 3.5-1.51

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Injury Burden
High injury burden (116 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
-8.1
Finishing Luck
Scored 1 fewer goals than their 35.4 xG - wasting chances
-6.1
Shot Volume Gap
Getting more points than their shot dominance warrants
+3.3
Schedule Strength
Faced stronger-than-average opponents - a tough draw
-3.1
xPTS Gap
2 more points than xG simulations predict they deserve
+2.6
Defensive Luck
Conceding almost exactly at the 11.8 xGA opponents generate - no defensive luck either way
+2.2
Discipline
Opponents picking up more cards - refereeing luck is on their side
+0.2
Total CLS-9

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: stable|24 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Vancouver Whitecaps are right where they belong. Their CLS of -9 means results match performance. What you see is what you get.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available