Season2026
VAN

Vancouver Whitecaps CURSD Luck Score

2026 season · 11 matches played · View mls standings →

-10
CLS Score
11th unluckiest of 30 in the mls

Vancouver Whitecaps are getting roughly what they deserve. 26 points vs 26.03 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

26
Points
Expected: 26.03
27
Goals Scored
xG: 30.19
7
Goals Conceded
xGA: 8.41
0
Points Below Expected
Unlucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 5 · 2026-03-22 · vs San Jose Earthquakes · at home
0-1
Lost at home against San Jose Earthquakes

One of those games where nothing went right. The model valued this match at 1.6 points for Vancouver Whitecaps. They got 0. That's 1.6 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
45'B. Leroux scores for San Jose Earthquakes
0.98
xG Created
0.66
Opp. xG
-1.6
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW5 · 2026-03-22 · vs San Jose Earthquakes · Home-1.6 pts
Lost 0-1 home despite 1.0 xG. Expected 1.6 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-1 | xG: 0.98-0.66
MW11 · 2026-05-10 · vs San Jose Earthquakes · Away-1.1 pts
Drew 1-1 away despite 2.2 xG. Expected 2.1 pts, got 1.
Score: 1-1 | xG: 2.23-1.02
MW10 · 2026-05-03 · vs Los Angeles Galaxy · Away-1.1 pts
Drew 1-1 away despite 2.6 xG. Expected 2.1 pts, got 1.
Score: 1-1 | xG: 2.61-1.38

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW1 · 2026-02-22 · vs Real Salt Lake · Home+1.1 pts
Won 1-0 home from 1.4 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.9 expected.
Score: 1-0 | xG: 1.36-0.67
MW9 · 2026-04-26 · vs Colorado Rapids · Home+0.7 pts
Won 3-1 home. xG: 3.5-1.5.
Score: 3-1 | xG: 3.5-1.51
MW4 · 2026-03-15 · vs Minnesota United FC · Home+0.5 pts
Won 6-0 home. xG: 4.1-1.1.
Score: 6-0 | xG: 4.08-1.07

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Finishing Luck
Scored 3 fewer goals than their 30.2 xG - wasting chances
-7.6
Injury Burden
High injury burden (96 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
-6.3
Defensive Luck
Conceded 1 fewer goals than the 8.4 xGA opponents generated
+2.9
Shot Volume Gap
Getting more points than their shot dominance warrants
+2.6
Schedule Strength
Faced stronger-than-average opponents - a tough draw
-2.1
Discipline
Opponents picking up more cards - refereeing luck is on their side
+0.8
xPTS Gap
Almost exactly on expected points (0.0 xPTS gap)
-0.3
Total CLS-10

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: stable|27 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Vancouver Whitecaps are right where they belong. Their CLS of -10 means results match performance. What you see is what you get.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available