Season2026
VAN

Vancouver Whitecaps CURSD Luck Score

2026 season · 21 matches played · View mls standings →

-14
CLS Score
11th unluckiest of 30 in the mls

Vancouver Whitecaps are getting roughly what they deserve. 43 points vs 44.31 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

43
Points
Expected: 44.31
48
Goals Scored
xG: 47.64
18
Goals Conceded
xGA: 16.93
1.3
Points Below Expected
Unlucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 19 · 2026-08-20 · vs Houston Dynamo · at home
0-1
Lost at home against Houston Dynamo

One of those games where nothing went right. Vancouver Whitecaps generated 1.42 xG, comfortably more than the 0.66 their opponent managed. Houston Dynamo generated just 0.66 xG but made it count. The model valued this match at 1.9 points for Vancouver Whitecaps. They got 0. That's 1.9 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
34'F. Negri scores for Houston Dynamo
1.42
xG Created
0.66
Opp. xG
-1.9
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW19 · 2026-08-20 · vs Houston Dynamo · Home-1.9 pts
Lost 0-1 home despite 1.4 xG. Expected 1.9 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-1 | xG: 1.42-0.66
MW17 · 2026-08-01 · vs Los Angeles FC · Home-1.6 pts
Drew 1-1 home despite 2.2 xG. Expected 2.6 pts, got 1.
Score: 1-1 | xG: 2.19-0.26
MW5 · 2026-03-22 · vs San Jose Earthquakes · Home-1.6 pts
Lost 0-1 home despite 1.0 xG. Expected 1.6 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-1 | xG: 0.98-0.66

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW12 · 2026-05-14 · vs FC Dallas · Away+2.2 pts
Won 3-2 away from 0.7 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.8 expected.
Score: 3-2 | xG: 0.67-1.35
MW1 · 2026-02-22 · vs Real Salt Lake · Home+1.1 pts
Won 1-0 home from 1.4 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.9 expected.
Score: 1-0 | xG: 1.36-0.67
MW20 · 2026-08-23 · vs FC Dallas · Home+1.0 pts
Won 5-0 home from 1.4 xG. Got 3 pts vs 2.0 expected.
Score: 5-0 | xG: 1.37-0.59

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Injury Burden
High injury burden (205 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
-11.4
Finishing Luck
Scoring almost exactly at their 47.6 xG - neither clinical nor wasteful
-3
xPTS Gap
1 fewer points than xG simulations say they deserve
-2.5
Shot Volume Gap
Getting more points than their shot dominance warrants
+1.8
Defensive Luck
Conceded 1 fewer goals than the 16.9 xGA opponents generated
+1.5
Schedule Strength
Faced stronger-than-average opponents - a tough draw
-1.3
Discipline
Opponents picking up more cards - refereeing luck is on their side
+0.9
Total CLS-14

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: stable|17 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Vancouver Whitecaps are right where they belong. Their CLS of -14 means results match performance. What you see is what you get.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available