Season2026
VAN

Vancouver Whitecaps CURSD Luck Score

2026 season · 30 matches played · View mls standings →

-21
CLS Score
7th unluckiest of 30 in the mls

Vancouver Whitecaps can't catch a break. 55 points when the data says they deserve closer to 57.68? 7 losses, many of them undeserved based on the chances created. The numbers say better days are coming. Top driver: Injury Burden (-14.5 CLS impact). High injury burden (292 player-games missed) - key absences hurting

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

55
Points
Expected: 57.68
63
Goals Scored
xG: 60.5
31
Goals Conceded
xGA: 27.88
2.7
Points Below Expected
Unlucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 24 · 2026-09-13 · vs Austin · at home
1-2
Lost at home against Austin

A defeat that defied the run of play. Vancouver Whitecaps created 3.33 xG worth of chances - enough for roughly 3 goals on an average day. They scored 1. Austin generated just 1.05 xG but made it count. The model valued this match at 2.5 points for Vancouver Whitecaps. They got 0. That's 2.5 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
28'C. Ramirez scores for Austin (assist: F. Torres)
40'Ryan Gauld scores for Vancouver Whitecaps
49'B. White scores for Vancouver Whitecaps (assist: R. Gauld)
60'C. Ramirez scores for Austin (assist: J. Rosales)
90'Guilherme Biro (Austin) - Red Card
3.33
xG Created
1.05
Opp. xG
-2.5
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW24 · 2026-09-13 · vs Austin · Home-2.5 pts
Lost 1-2 home despite 3.3 xG. Expected 2.5 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-2 | xG: 3.33-1.05
MW19 · 2026-08-20 · vs Houston Dynamo · Home-1.9 pts
Lost 0-1 home despite 1.4 xG. Expected 1.9 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-1 | xG: 1.42-0.66
MW17 · 2026-08-01 · vs Los Angeles FC · Home-1.6 pts
Drew 1-1 home despite 2.2 xG. Expected 2.6 pts, got 1.
Score: 1-1 | xG: 2.19-0.26

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW12 · 2026-05-14 · vs FC Dallas · Away+2.2 pts
Won 3-2 away from 0.7 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.8 expected.
Score: 3-2 | xG: 0.67-1.35
MW30 · 2026-10-18 · vs Austin · Away+1.5 pts
Won 2-1 away from 0.9 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.5 expected.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 0.91-0.75
MW1 · 2026-02-22 · vs Real Salt Lake · Home+1.1 pts
Won 1-0 home from 1.4 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.9 expected.
Score: 1-0 | xG: 1.36-0.67

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Injury Burden
High injury burden (292 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
-14.5
xPTS Gap
3 fewer points than xG simulations say they deserve
-5
Finishing Luck
Scored 3 fewer goals than their 60.5 xG - wasting chances
-3.5
Defensive Luck
Conceded 3 fewer goals than the 27.9 xGA opponents generated
+1.7
Schedule Strength
Faced stronger-than-average opponents - a tough draw
-0.9
Shot Volume Gap
Getting more points than their shot dominance warrants
+0.6
Discipline
Opponents picking up more cards - refereeing luck is on their side
+0.6
Total CLS-21

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
Improvement Probable
Last 5: stable|8 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

At -21, Vancouver Whitecaps are meaningfully unlucky. They're roughly 3 points below where their performance says they deserve to be. The underlying quality is there - results are expected to follow as luck normalizes.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available