VEN

Venezia CURSD Luck Score

2026-27 season · 7 matches played · View Serie A standings →

-18
CLS Score
3rd unluckiest of 20 in the Serie A

Venezia can't catch a break. 3 points when the data says they deserve closer to 7.03? 6 losses, many of them undeserved based on the chances created. The numbers say better days are coming. Top driver: Finishing Luck (-8.0 CLS impact). Scored 5 fewer goals than their 10.9 xG - wasting chances

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

3
Points
Expected: 7.03
6
Goals Scored
xG: 10.86
16
Goals Conceded
xGA: 16.27
4
Points Below Expected
Unlucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 5 · 2026-09-19 · vs Lazio · at home
0-2
Lost at home against Lazio

A shutout loss that the numbers say should never have happened. Venezia generated 1.89 xG, comfortably more than the 1.6 their opponent managed. The model valued this match at 1.6 points for Venezia. They got 0. That's 1.6 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
17'John Yeboah scores for Venezia
51'M. Zaccagni scores for Lazio
60'T. Noslin scores for Lazio (assist: N. Tavares)
1.89
xG Created
1.6
Opp. xG
-1.6
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW5 · 2026-09-19 · vs Lazio · Home-1.6 pts
Lost 0-2 home despite 1.9 xG. Expected 1.6 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-2 | xG: 1.89-1.6
MW3 · 2026-09-06 · vs Frosinone · Away-1.6 pts
Lost 2-3 away despite 2.2 xG. Expected 1.5 pts, got 0.
Score: 2-3 | xG: 2.17-1.9
MW6 · 2026-10-12 · vs Atalanta · Away-1.6 pts
Lost 1-3 away despite 2.5 xG. Expected 1.5 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-3 | xG: 2.48-2.19

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW7 · 2026-10-17 · vs Napoli · Home+2.4 pts
Won 1-0 home from 1.0 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.6 expected.
Score: 1-0 | xG: 0.98-2.36
MW4 · 2026-09-11 · vs Fiorentina · Home+-0.2 pts
Lost 2-4 home. xG: 0.5-3.3.
Score: 2-4 | xG: 0.49-3.31
MW2 · 2026-08-28 · vs AC Milan · Away+-0.6 pts
Lost 0-2 away. xG: 0.8-2.2.
Score: 0-2 | xG: 0.8-2.21

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Finishing Luck
Scored 5 fewer goals than their 10.9 xG - wasting chances
-8
xPTS Gap
4 fewer points than xG simulations say they deserve
-5.3
Shot Volume Gap
Outshooting opponents but not getting the results to match
-2.7
Injury Burden
High injury burden (67 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
-1.8
Discipline
Receiving more cards than opponents - decisions going against them
-1.5
Schedule Strength
Faced weaker-than-average opponents so far
+1.4
Defensive Luck
Conceding almost exactly at the 16.3 xGA opponents generate - no defensive luck either way
-0.1
Total CLS-18

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
Improvement Probable
Last 5: declining|31 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

At -18, Venezia are meaningfully unlucky. They're roughly 4 points below where their performance says they deserve to be. The underlying quality is there - results are expected to follow as luck normalizes.

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