VfL Wolfsburg

VfL Wolfsburg CURSD Luck Score

2025-26 season · 35 matches played · View Bundesliga standings →

-62
CLS Score
1st unluckiest of 19 in the Bundesliga

VfL Wolfsburg: 30 points from 42 expected, a gap of 11.5. Finishing has cost them: 3 fewer goals than their 48.0 xG should produce. Defensively, 7 more goals conceded than the 61.7 xGA opponents generated. 19 losses, 9 draws. The underlying numbers say this team is better than the table shows. Top driver: Injury Burden (-19.4 CLS impact). High injury burden (320 player-games missed) - key absences hurting

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

30
Points
Expected: 41.52
45
Goals Scored
xG: 47.98
69
Goals Conceded
xGA: 61.69
11.5
Points Below Expected
Unlucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 11 · 2025-11-22 · vs Bayer Leverkusen · at home
1-3
Lost at home against Bayer Leverkusen

A defeat that defied the run of play. VfL Wolfsburg created 2.13 xG worth of chances - enough for roughly 2 goals on an average day. They scored 1. The model valued this match at 2.0 points for VfL Wolfsburg. They got 0. That's 2.0 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
9'J. Hofmann scores for Bayer Leverkusen (assist: A. Grimaldo)
24'E. Tapsoba scores for Bayer Leverkusen (assist: A. Garcia)
33'M. Tillman scores for Bayer Leverkusen (assist: P. Schick)
57'D. Vavro scores for VfL Wolfsburg (assist: M. Arnold)
2.13
xG Created
1.1
Opp. xG
-2.0
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW11 · 2025-11-22 · vs Bayer Leverkusen · Home-2.0 pts
Lost 1-3 home despite 2.1 xG. Expected 2.0 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-3 | xG: 2.13-1.1
MW29 · 2026-04-11 · vs Eintracht Frankfurt · Home-2.0 pts
Lost 1-2 home despite 2.3 xG. Expected 2.0 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-2 | xG: 2.33-1.29
MW33 · 2026-05-09 · vs Bayern München · Home-2.0 pts
Lost 0-1 home despite 3.0 xG. Expected 2.0 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-1 | xG: 3.04-1.85

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW8 · 2025-10-25 · vs Hamburger SV · Away+2.8 pts
Won 1-0 away from 0.4 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.2 expected.
Score: 1-0 | xG: 0.37-2.77
MW30 · 2026-04-18 · vs Union Berlin · Away+2.7 pts
Won 2-1 away from 0.2 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.3 expected.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 0.19-1.79
MW13 · 2025-12-06 · vs Union Berlin · Home+2.3 pts
Won 3-1 home from 0.8 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.7 expected.
Score: 3-1 | xG: 0.81-1.92

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Injury Burden
High injury burden (320 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
-19.4
xPTS Gap
12 fewer points than xG simulations say they deserve
-16.1
Schedule Strength
Faced stronger-than-average opponents - a tough draw
-7.9
Defensive Luck
Conceded 7 more goals than the 61.7 xGA opponents generated
-5.9
Finishing Luck
Scored 3 fewer goals than their 48.0 xG - wasting chances
-5.2
Shot Volume Gap
Outshooting opponents but not getting the results to match
-5
Discipline
Receiving more cards than opponents - decisions going against them
-2.5
Total CLS-62

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
Results Expected to Improve
Last 5: declining|3 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

VfL Wolfsburg are deeply cursed at -62. This level of underperformance almost never persists. The data they're generating - the chances created, the shots taken, the defensive work - all point to a team better than their record. Regression to the mean is one of the most reliable forces in sports.

Next Matches
05-25
A
SC Paderborn 07
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