VfL Wolfsburg Luck Index

2025-26 Season · View Bundesliga standings →

-65

Luck Index Score

VfL Wolfsburg are the definition of "we deserved more." With 21 points from 30.6 expected, they've been robbed this season. 6 draws tell the story - they're dominating matches and walking away with crumbs. The worst part? They've scored 1 fewer goals than their xG suggests. The finishing is cursed. Genuinely, cosmically cursed.

Data last updated Oct 20, 2018, 1:46 AM UTC

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Points

Expected: 30.6

Goals Scored

xG: 36.63

Goals Conceded

xGA: 53.83

9.6

Points Below Expected

Unlucky gap

Luck Index Evolution

How the Luck Index has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match

Matchweek 11 · 2025-11-22 · vs Bayer Leverkusen · at home

1-3

Lost at home against Bayer Leverkusen

A defeat that defied the run of play. VfL Wolfsburg created 2.13 xG worth of chances - enough for roughly 2 goals on an average day. They scored 1. The model valued this match at 2.0 points for VfL Wolfsburg. They got 0. That's 2.0 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline

9'J. Hofmann scores for Bayer Leverkusen (assist: A. Grimaldo)

24'E. Tapsoba scores for Bayer Leverkusen (assist: A. Garcia)

33'M. Tillman scores for Bayer Leverkusen (assist: P. Schick)

57'D. Vavro scores for VfL Wolfsburg (assist: M. Arnold)

2.13

xG Created

1.1

Opp. xG

-2.0

Pts Lost

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW11 · 2025-11-22 · vs Bayer Leverkusen · Home-2.0 pts

Lost 1-3 home despite 2.1 xG. Expected 2.0 pts, got 0.

Score: 1-3 | xG: 2.13-1.1

MW27 · 2026-03-21 · vs Werder Bremen · Home-1.9 pts

Lost 0-1 home despite 1.1 xG. Expected 1.9 pts, got 0.

Score: 0-1 | xG: 1.06-0.38

MW5 · 2025-09-27 · vs RB Leipzig · Home-1.7 pts

Lost 0-1 home despite 3.0 xG. Expected 1.7 pts, got 0.

Score: 0-1 | xG: 3.05-2.41

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW8 · 2025-10-25 · vs Hamburger SV · Away+2.8 pts

Won 1-0 away from 0.4 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.2 expected.

Score: 1-0 | xG: 0.37-2.77

MW13 · 2025-12-06 · vs Union Berlin · Home+2.3 pts

Won 3-1 home from 0.8 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.7 expected.

Score: 3-1 | xG: 0.81-1.92

MW14 · 2025-12-13 · vs Borussia Mönchengladbach · Away+1.0 pts

Won 3-1 away. xG: 1.7-0.8.

Score: 3-1 | xG: 1.72-0.8

What's Driving the Luck Index

Each factor's contribution to the Luck Index score. These add up to the total.

Injury Burden

High injury burden (211 player-games missed) - key absences hurting

-19.3

xPTS Gap

10 fewer points than xG simulations say they deserve

-16

Schedule Strength

Faced stronger-than-average opponents - a tough draw

-12.4

Defensive Luck

Conceded 9 more goals than the 53.8 xGA opponents generated

-7.4

Shot Volume Gap

Outshooting opponents but not getting the results to match

-5.2

Discipline

Receiving more cards than opponents - decisions going against them

-3.8

Finishing Luck

Scored 1 fewer goals than their 36.6 xG - wasting chances

-0.9

Total Luck Index-65

Rivalry Check

How are the rivals doing?

What to Expect Next

Regression Outlook

Results Expected to Improve

Last 5: declining|10 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds

Why?

VfL Wolfsburg are deeply cursed at -65. This level of underperformance almost never persists. The data they're generating - the chances created, the shots taken, the defensive work - all point to a team better than their record. Regression to the mean is one of the most reliable forces in sports.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available

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