Pisa have 18 points from 32 Serie A matches. Their expected points total is 34.12.
That 16.12-point deficit is the largest in the Italian top flight, and it is not particularly close. By CURSD's Luck Index, Pisa sit at -80, the most cursed side in Serie A. The number captures a team being punished at both ends of the pitch by variance that borders on the absurd. But the number also sits on top of a team that was never going to be comfortable in this league. Both things are true.
The xPoints gap: 16 points left on the pitch
Pisa's 2-12-18 record reads like a side that has been steamrolled. And in many matches, they have been, conceding 58 goals across 32 games. But the underlying model expected them to collect 34.12 points, a total that would have them sitting around 15th or 16th rather than cemented to the bottom of the table. That gap of -16.12 points means Pisa have converted expected performance into actual results at a historically poor rate. Twelve draws suggest a team that gets into positions to take something from matches. Two wins suggest a team that almost never finishes the job.
The finishing: 9 goals that never arrived
Pisa have scored 23 goals from chances worth 32.34 xG. That finishing delta of -9.34 goals is the engine of the curse. To put it plainly, the team has created enough to score roughly a goal per game and has instead averaged 0.72. Their 311 shots are modest, the fewest-adjacent in the division, so they are not generating volume. But the chances they do create are reasonable, and they are missing them at a rate that has cost them somewhere in the range of 5 to 7 points by most conversion models.
Some of this is personnel. Some of this is just the wrong side of the post, week after week.
The defense: bad, and then a little worse
Pisa's expected goals against of 51.7 already tells you this is a porous backline. They have faced 478 shots in 32 matches, nearly 15 per game. The defensive infrastructure is genuinely poor. But the 58 goals they have actually conceded represent a defensive variance of +6.30, meaning opponents are finishing above expected rate against them. That is not catastrophic on its own, but layered on top of the finishing deficit, it creates a team leaking points from both ends simultaneously.
Pisa are not a good defensive team being undone by bad luck. They are a bad defensive team being made to look even worse.
Injuries and schedule: the context tax
Pisa's injury burden of 153 sits well above the league average of roughly 120, which matters more for a squad without the depth to absorb absences. Their schedule strength rating of 1.3 confirms what the fixture list already suggested: Pisa have faced a harder-than-average slate. Neither factor excuses a 2-win season, but both help explain how a team that models as a relegation candidate has been pushed into something closer to historic futility.
Their discipline record of 62 yellows and 3 reds is unremarkable. This is not a side losing its composure. It is a side losing football matches.
What regression would actually buy them
Pisa have 6 matches remaining. If finishing and defensive variance regressed toward expected rates over those games, the model would project them to pick up roughly 6 to 8 points from the remaining fixtures rather than the 3 or 4 their current conversion rates imply. That difference, maybe 3 extra points, is unlikely to change their fate. They sit on 18 points, and even a generous regression scenario lands them around 25. Survival typically requires north of 35.
The honest assessment is this: Pisa's expected points model describes a team that would still be in a relegation fight, just one with a pulse. Their net xG of -19.36 across 32 games is the profile of a bottom-five side, not a mid-table one. The curse has not hidden a good team. It has taken a limited team and stripped it of every close result, every marginal moment, every coin flip that might have made the season feel survivable.
At -80 on the Luck Index, Pisa are Serie A's most cursed team. They are also one of its weakest. The tragedy is that only one of those things had to be true.