Hellas Verona have 19 points from 34 Serie A matches. Expected-points models say they should have 40.45. That is a gap of -21.45, more than an entire season's worth of mid-table breathing room simply vanished into the ether of variance, finishing failures, and a defense that has been punished in ways the underlying numbers cannot fully explain.
Twenty-one and a half points. Gone.
The xPoints Chasm
Verona's Luck Index of -56 places them second in CURSD's Serie A cursed rankings, behind only Pisa (-79). But where Pisa's misery has attracted attention, Verona's has largely been absorbed into the general assumption that a team with 3 wins from 34 matches simply belongs at the bottom. The xPoints model disagrees, not by a polite margin but by a screaming 21.45-point deficit. At 40.45 expected points, Verona would be sitting comfortably in the lower-middle of the table, well clear of relegation, possibly even flirting with 13th or 14th. Instead, they are anchored near the foot of Serie A with a record of 3W-10D-21L.
Ten draws. That number matters. Verona have drawn nearly as many matches as they have lost, a profile that typically correlates with competitive performances tipping the wrong way at decisive moments. The xPoints model captures exactly this: a team generating enough to earn points, then not earning them.
The Finishing Crisis
Here is where the curse has teeth. Verona have generated 32.25 xG from open play and set pieces this season. They have scored 23 goals. That is a finishing delta of -9.25, meaning they have left more than nine goals on the pitch relative to the quality of chances they created. From 382 shots, that is a conversion rate that would make a finishing coach lose sleep for months.
This is not a team that fails to create. It is a team that creates and then watches the ball hit the post, the keeper's gloves, or the side netting with a consistency that borders on statistical cruelty. Nine-plus goals of underperformance is severe in any league. In a relegation fight where single goals decide fates, it is devastating.
A Defense Being Punished Beyond Its Errors
Verona have conceded 56 goals against an xGA of 40.96. That is a defensive variance of +15.04 goals, meaning opponents have scored 15 more times than the quality of their chances warranted. Some of this is goalkeeping. Some is defensive structure collapsing at the worst moments. But 15 goals of overperformance by opposing attackers is the kind of number that typically regresses hard.
To be clear, Verona's underlying defensive numbers are not elite. An xGA of 40.96 in 34 matches is still below average, conceding roughly 1.20 expected goals per game. They are being outshot 437 to 382. This is not a secretly great team being robbed. It is a below-average team being robbed of the gap between below-average and catastrophic.
What the Curse Is Not
Honesty requires this section. Verona's net xG is -8.71. Their schedule strength of 1.2 indicates a slightly harder-than-average set of fixtures. They are not a mid-table side in disguise. They are a team whose true level is probably somewhere around 36 to 42 points, the uneasy territory between safe and nervous. But their injury burden of 48 sits far below the league average of roughly 120, which means this underperformance cannot be pinned on a decimated squad. The players have been available. The results have not followed.
What Regression Would Actually Buy Them
With four matches remaining, Verona need a minor miracle to survive on actual points. But if even partial regression had kicked in across the season, if finishing ran at -4 instead of -9.25, if defensive variance sat at +7 instead of +15, Verona would likely have 28 to 33 points right now. That is not safety guaranteed. But it is a fight, not a funeral.
Instead, Verona sit on 19 points with a squad that has been mostly healthy, a schedule that has been only mildly unkind, and a 21.45-point hole where variance swallowed an entire season. Serie A's most overlooked curse is not complicated. It is just relentless.