Hellas Verona have generated enough quality chances and conceded few enough expected goals to be sitting on roughly 39 points this season. They have 18. That 21.53-point gap between expected and actual is not a rounding error. It is a season-long systematic collapse of every coin flip, every deflection, every one-on-one that could have gone either way going the wrong way instead.
Pisa owns the top spot in CURSD's Serie A cursed rankings with a Luck Index of -73. But Verona, at -61, might be the more painful case, because at least Pisa are in Serie B conversations where the margins feel familiar. Verona are staring at relegation from Serie A with the underlying profile of a side that should be comfortably mid-table.
The 21-Point Void
Verona's expected points total of 39.53 would place them around 14th or 15th in the actual Serie A table. Not glamorous, but a universe away from their current reality at the bottom on 18 points. The gap of -21.53 points means that across 33 matches, Verona have underperformed their expected output by roughly two-thirds of a point per game. Every single matchday, on average, the scoreboard has been less kind than the chances warranted.
Their record reads 3 wins, 9 draws, 21 losses. The expected goals model does not see a 3-win team. It sees something closer to 9 or 10 wins, with several of those 9 draws converting to victories and a significant chunk of the 21 losses softening into stalemates. Instead, Verona have found a way to lose 21 times.
The Finishing Crisis
Verona created chances worth 31.93 expected goals this season. They scored 23. That finishing delta of -8.93 goals is enormous over 33 matches. It means that roughly every four games, Verona have wasted an entire goal's worth of quality opportunities.
They have taken 376 shots, a number that is not drastically below the 425 they have faced. They are being outshot, but not overrun. The problem is conversion. Their attackers have simply not finished at the level their chances deserve, and across a full season, that compounds into the kind of points deficit that makes a relegation battle out of what should have been mid-table anonymity.
The Defensive Betrayal
If the attack has been wasteful, the defense has been genuinely cursed. Verona's expected goals against stands at 40.3, which is not good, but it is the profile of a side that concedes around 44 or 45 goals. They have conceded 56. That defensive variance of +15.70 goals means opponents have overperformed their chances against Verona by nearly 16 goals across the season.
Some of that is goalkeeping. Some is defensive errors at the worst moments. But 15.70 goals of defensive overperformance against you is the kind of number that suggests a deep structural bad-luck problem, not just poor defending.
What the Curse Is Not
Honesty is required here. Verona's net expected goal difference is -8.37. They are being outshot 425 to 376. Their schedule strength of 1.23 means they have faced a slightly tougher draw than average. This is not a secretly elite team. The underlying model says they are below average, a side whose true level is probably 15th, not 5th.
But 15th is not 20th. A -8.37 xG difference does not produce 18 points. Relegation-quality results from a side with mid-table underlying numbers is the specific, measurable cruelty of this season.
Their injury burden of 48 against a league average of roughly 120 makes this worse. They have had no excuse on the availability front. The squad has been healthy. It just has not mattered.
What Regression Could Still Buy
With 5 matches remaining, Verona would need to average roughly 2.4 points per game to reach the 30-point mark that sometimes, in a weak year, keeps a side up. That is Champions League form.
It is not happening.
The numbers say Verona deserved better. The table says they are going down. Both of those things can be true at the same time, and that is exactly what a curse looks like.