Metz have played 31 matches of Ligue 1 football this season and collected 16 points. Their underlying numbers say they should have 28.92. That is not a rounding error. That is nearly thirteen points dissolved into nothing, the largest gap between expected and actual output in the French top flight. By the CURSD Luck Index, Metz sit at -53, the most cursed side in Ligue 1.
Let's be careful, though. Cursed and bad are not mutually exclusive. Metz are both.
The xPoints Chasm
A team's xPoints delta is the cleanest single measure of how results have diverged from process. Metz's -12.92 figure means that across 31 matches, the quality of chances created and conceded pointed to something like 28 or 29 points, a total that would still leave them in the relegation conversation but not buried in it. Instead, they sit on 16, a number that offers almost no mathematical hope. The gap is not explained by one freak result. It is spread across the season, a persistent drip of draws turning into losses and close games sliding the wrong way.
A Defense That Keeps Getting Punished
Metz have conceded 70 goals. Their expected goals against stands at 57.47. That is a defensive variance of +12.53, meaning opponents have scored more than twelve goals beyond what the quality of their chances warranted. Some of this is goalkeeping. Some is set-piece misfortune. Some is the compounding cruelty of a side that, once behind, presses forward and gets caught again. But 12.53 goals of defensive overperformance against you is extraordinary. It accounts for the bulk of Metz's curse. They are not creating a defensive structure that merits praise, allowing 470 shots against in 31 games, but they are being punished well beyond what even that leaky structure deserves.
Opponents shoot and score. Then they shoot and score again, slightly more than they should.
The Attack: Mediocre, Not Cursed
Here is where honesty matters. Metz's finishing delta is -1.12 goals, meaning they have scored 31 from an xG of 32.12. That is essentially neutral. The attack has converted its chances at a rate that is, by any reasonable standard, fine. The problem is the chances themselves. An xG of 32.12 across 31 matches is roughly one expected goal per game, generated from just 305 shots. They are being outshot 470 to 305. The curse lives almost entirely on the defensive side of the ledger. Up front, Metz are performing to the level of the opportunities they create. Those opportunities are simply not very good.
Injuries and a Brutal Schedule
Metz's injury burden sits at 163 against a league average of approximately 120. That is a significant but not catastrophic figure, roughly 35% above the norm. More telling is a schedule strength rating of 1.3, meaning Metz have faced a meaningfully harder set of opponents than the average Ligue 1 side. Neither factor alone dooms a season. Together, layered on top of a squad already thin on quality, they make every close game a little harder to hold onto. And Metz have had plenty of close games. Seven draws suggest a team that keeps getting to the doorstep of points without being able to lock the door behind them.
What Regression Could Actually Buy Them
Metz have seven matches remaining. If their results began tracking their underlying numbers, the xPoints model suggests something like 1.3 to 1.5 points per match from here, a pace that would yield roughly 9 or 10 additional points. That would bring them to 25 or 26 for the season. In most Ligue 1 campaigns, that is still not enough to survive. The honest conclusion is uncomfortable but clear: even a fully regression-corrected Metz season probably ends in relegation, just a more dignified version of it. The curse has not stolen survival from a team that deserved it. It has stolen the dignity of a competitive fight from a team that, on the numbers, earned the right to at least have one.
That distinction matters, even if the destination is the same.