Metz

Metz CURSD Luck Score

2025-26 season · 34 matches played · View Ligue 1 standings →

-66
CLS Score
1st unluckiest of 20 in the Ligue 1

Metz: 17 points from 32 expected, a gap of 14.6. Finishing has cost them: 3 fewer goals than their 34.9 xG should produce. Defensively, 14 more goals conceded than the 62.4 xGA opponents generated. 23 losses, 8 draws. The underlying numbers say this team is better than the table shows. Top driver: xPTS Gap (-28.8 CLS impact). 15 fewer points than xG simulations say they deserve

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

17
Points
Expected: 31.63
32
Goals Scored
xG: 34.86
76
Goals Conceded
xGA: 62.36
14.6
Points Below Expected
Unlucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 24 · 2026-03-01 · vs Stade Brestois 29 · at home
0-1
Lost at home against Stade Brestois 29

A shutout loss that the numbers say should never have happened. Metz generated 1.52 xG, comfortably more than the 0.87 their opponent managed. The model valued this match at 1.8 points for Metz. They got 0. That's 1.8 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
22'Daouda Guindo (Stade Brestois 29) - Red Card
69'L. Ajorque scores for Stade Brestois 29 (assist: B. Chardonnet)
1.52
xG Created
0.87
Opp. xG
-1.8
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW24 · 2026-03-01 · vs Stade Brestois 29 · Home-1.8 pts
Lost 0-1 home despite 1.5 xG. Expected 1.8 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-1 | xG: 1.52-0.87
MW14 · 2025-11-28 · vs Rennes · Home-1.5 pts
Lost 0-1 home despite 1.0 xG. Expected 1.5 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-1 | xG: 1.02-0.78
MW28 · 2026-04-05 · vs Nantes · Home-1.5 pts
Drew 0-0 home despite 2.3 xG. Expected 2.5 pts, got 1.
Score: 0-0 | xG: 2.28-0.46

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW11 · 2025-11-02 · vs Nantes · Away+1.2 pts
Won 2-0 away from 1.3 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.8 expected.
Score: 2-0 | xG: 1.34-0.81
MW12 · 2025-11-09 · vs Nice · Home+1.2 pts
Won 2-1 home from 1.6 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.8 expected.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 1.58-0.95
MW10 · 2025-10-29 · vs Lens · Home+0.6 pts
Won 2-0 home. xG: 3.4-1.3.
Score: 2-0 | xG: 3.42-1.32

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

xPTS Gap
15 fewer points than xG simulations say they deserve
-28.8
Defensive Luck
Conceded 14 more goals than the 62.4 xGA opponents generated
-17.9
Shot Volume Gap
Outshooting opponents but not getting the results to match
-6.5
Finishing Luck
Scored 3 fewer goals than their 34.9 xG - wasting chances
-6.1
Injury Burden
High injury burden (175 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
-4.2
Discipline
Receiving more cards than opponents - decisions going against them
-1.9
Schedule Strength
Faced stronger-than-average opponents - a tough draw
-0.6
Total CLS-66

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
Results Expected to Improve
Last 5: declining|4 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Metz are deeply cursed at -66. This level of underperformance almost never persists. The data they're generating - the chances created, the shots taken, the defensive work - all point to a team better than their record. Regression to the mean is one of the most reliable forces in sports.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available