Hellas Verona have created enough chances to earn 42.76 expected points this season. They have 21. That gap of -21.76 is the kind of variance that doesn't just change your season. It changes your division.
With 37 matches played and one left, Verona sit rock bottom of Serie A on 21 points, a squad that looks relegation-worthy on every metric that matters to the actual table. But the table, as it turns out, is only telling part of the story. Beneath the surface, something far stranger has been happening at the Stadio Bentegodi.
The xPoints Chasm
A 21.76-point gap between expected and actual points is enormous. It is the second-largest cursed deficit in Serie A, behind only Pisa's extraordinary Luck Index of -86. At 42.76 xPoints, Verona's underlying performance profiles as a mid-table side, comfortably clear of the relegation scrap and possibly flirting with the top half. Instead, their record reads 3 wins, 12 draws, and 22 losses.
Three wins from 37 games. With the expected-points profile of a team that should have roughly 12.
The Finishing Collapse
The most damning number in Verona's season is -9.82. That is their finishing delta, the difference between the 34.82 goals their chances were worth and the 25 they actually scored. Nearly ten goals have vanished somewhere between the expected-goal model and the back of the net.
To put that in context, 9.82 missing goals across 37 matches is roughly one goal every four games that should have gone in and didn't. In a league where margins are measured in single goals, that kind of underperformance is catastrophic. Their 414 shots suggest a team that is generating volume. The conversion rate suggests a team that is generating heartbreak.
The Defense That Made It Worse
Verona's expected goals against stands at 47.12. That is not good. A team conceding at that rate is being outplayed and outshot, with 494 shots faced over the season. But the actual damage has been significantly worse. They have conceded 59 goals, a defensive variance of +11.88. Their opponents have overperformed their own chances by almost a goal every three matches.
So the curse has worked both ends. Verona's attackers are finishing below expectation while their opponents are finishing above it. The combined swing of roughly 21.7 goals across a season is the kind of variance that rewrites a club's entire trajectory.
What the Curse Is Not
Honesty requires a caveat. Verona's net xG is -12.30. They are being outplayed in open play. They face more shots than they create. Their schedule strength of 1.26 means they have faced a slightly tougher-than-average slate, though not brutally so. This is not a secretly elite team being robbed by the football gods. This is a below-average team being punished at a rate that far exceeds what their below-average performance deserves.
Their injury burden of 66, well below the league average of roughly 120, removes one common excuse. Verona have been relatively healthy. Their 86 yellow cards and 4 reds suggest a physical side, but not an undisciplined one by Serie A standards. The variance here is not explained by absences or fixture congestion. It is, by the numbers, simply variance.
That is what makes it a curse.
What Regression Would Actually Buy Them
With one match remaining, regression is largely a theoretical exercise for this season. But the principle matters for context. If Verona had converted chances at league-average rates and their opponents had done the same, the model says they would be sitting around 43 points. That figure would have them clear of relegation with room to spare, likely nestled in the anonymity of 12th or 13th place.
Instead, they are staring at the drop with 21 points and a goal difference of -34. The gap between what the numbers say Verona are and what the table says they are is 22 points and roughly an entire tier of Italian football. Pisa's curse is louder. Verona's might be more consequential.
Some seasons, you are bad and unlucky. The bad part gets you into trouble. The unlucky part makes sure you can't get out.