The Gap
Hellas Verona have 21 points from 37 Serie A matches. Their expected points total is 42.81. That is a deficit of -21.81 points, which means the season Verona have actually experienced and the season the underlying numbers describe are separated by the width of a mid-table finishing position. One version of this team is relegated. The other is comfortably safe. Both versions created and conceded the same chances.
Nobody is really talking about this.
Pisa's collapse (-86 Luck Index) has dominated the cursed discourse in Italian football, and fairly so. But Verona, sitting at #2 on CURSD's Serie A rankings with a Luck Index of -60, might be the more instructive case. Because Verona's curse is not a single catastrophic dimension. It is a compound fracture, multiple systems failing at once, each one individually survivable but collectively devastating.
The Finishing Problem
Verona created chances worth 34.81 expected goals this season. They scored 25. That finishing delta of -9.81 is not a rounding error. It is nearly ten goals left on the table, scattered across 414 shots taken over 37 matches.
To put it plainly: if Verona had simply converted at a league-average rate relative to their chance quality, they would have scored roughly 35 goals. That alone does not save their season. But it changes the math on a significant number of those 12 draws, several of which were 0-0 or 1-1 results where a single finished chance flips two points to three.
The Defensive Bleeding
The other side of the ledger is worse. Verona conceded 59 goals against an expected goals against figure of 46.97, a defensive variance of +12.03. Their opponents did not just take good chances. They finished them at a rate well above what the quality of those chances warranted.
This is where compounding sets in. A team that underperforms its xG by nearly 10 goals AND overperforms its xGA by 12 is being squeezed from both directions simultaneously. The net xG difference is -12.16, which is genuinely poor. Verona are not a secretly good team being disguised by bad luck. They are a below-average team whose actual results have been made to look catastrophic.
There is a meaningful difference between those two things.
What the Curse Is Not
Honesty matters here. Verona were outshot 494 to 414. Their net xG of -12.16 confirms they were the inferior side in the balance of play more often than not. A schedule strength of 1.26 means they faced a slightly above-average slate of opponents. None of this screams hidden contender.
But 42.81 expected points is not a contender's number anyway. It is a survival number. It is the number of a team that stays up, maybe finishes 14th or 15th, and nobody writes a single feature about them in the offseason. Instead, Verona are going down with 21 points and a squad that will be stripped for parts.
Their injury burden of 66 was actually well below the league average of roughly 120, which removes one common alibi. This was not a season ruined by a ravaged squad. The players were available. The ball simply would not go in at one end and would not stay out at the other.
What Regression Would Have Bought Them
With one match remaining, the math is largely settled. But imagine spreading that 21.81-point deficit across a full season. Even partial regression, converting at expected rates in just half of the relevant matches, likely flips four or five of those 12 draws into wins and turns two or three of the narrowest losses into draws. That is 12 to 15 additional points. That is survival.
Verona's 86 yellow cards and 4 reds suggest a team that competed physically. Their discipline was not extreme. Their health was fine. Their chances were real.
Sometimes a season just curdles. Every 50-50 bounce, every goalkeeper's fingertip, every post and crossbar accumulates in one direction until a 43-point team is staring at 21 points and wondering what exactly happened.
The numbers know what happened. The table simply disagrees.