Valencia have created enough chances to be on 6.7 points through seven La Liga matches. They have 4.
That 2.7-point gap between expected and actual is the largest negative delta in the division, and it has earned Los Che the top spot in CURSD's La Liga curse rankings with a Luck Index of -28. In a league where margins between survival and relegation are measured in single digits, nearly three lost points is not a rounding error. It is a different season.
But before anyone starts printing "secretly good" banners at Mestalla, the full picture is more complicated than a simple hard-luck story.
The finishing problem
Valencia have scored 4 goals from 6.06 xG, a finishing delta of -2.06. That is roughly two goals left on the table through conversion alone. Across 74 shots, that inefficiency compounds quickly. They are not hitting the post on would-be screamers. They are underperforming the quality of chances they create, steadily and persistently, in a way that suggests either poor individual finishing or a structural issue in how they arrive at those chances.
Two goals does not sound like much. It is the difference between their 1-0 loss to Athletic and a 2-1 win. It is the difference between 4 points and potentially 7 or 8.
The defense is not blameless
Valencia have conceded 13 goals against an xGA of 11.5, a defensive variance of +1.50. Opponents are converting at a slightly higher rate than expected, which adds a thin layer of misfortune on top of what is already a leaky backline. But 11.5 xGA in seven matches is genuinely poor. They have faced 107 shots, meaning opponents are averaging over 15 shots per game against them.
Some of that concession rate is bad luck. Most of it is just being outshot and outplayed.
The schedule has not helped
Valencia's schedule strength sits at 1.16, meaning their seven opponents have been slightly above average in collective quality. That is not extreme, not the kind of brutal early calendar that fully explains a 1W-1D-5L record, but it removes one possible alibi. They have not faced the hardest slate in the league. They have simply lost to the teams they have faced.
What is NOT cursed
Here is where honesty matters. Valencia's net xG is -5.44. They are being outshot 107 to 74. Their underlying performance, stripped of all luck, paints a team that would still be near the bottom of the table even if every bounce went their way. The xPoints model says 6.7, not 15.
Their injury burden of 54 is actually well below the league average of roughly 120, meaning they have been healthier than most. This is not a squad ravaged by absences and playing with half a roster.
Valencia are cursed AND struggling. The curse is real. So is the mediocrity beneath it.
What regression could actually buy them
If Valencia's finishing reverts to league-average conversion and their defensive variance normalizes, they could realistically recover something close to that 2.7-point gap over the next seven to ten matches. Applied going forward, that kind of regression would project to roughly an additional point every three games, which over a full season translates to maybe 10-12 extra points compared to their current pace.
That would not make them a top-half team. But it could be the difference between 30 points and 40, between a grim relegation fight and uncomfortable-but-survivable mid-table existence. At their current rate of 0.57 points per match, they are on pace for 21.7 points. At their expected rate of 0.96 per match, they land around 36.5.
Fifteen points is an enormous gap to be explained by variance alone.
The problem for Valencia is that regression is a tendency, not a promise. And 4 points from 7 games means the margin for waiting has already gotten thin. The curse would need to lift soon, and the underlying quality would need to improve alongside it, for this season to land anywhere near acceptable.
Four points. Negative net xG. The worst Luck Index in La Liga. Valencia are not one thing. They are two bad things happening at once.