Valencia

Valencia CURSD Luck Score

2025-26 season · 37 matches played · View La Liga standings →

-35
CLS Score
5th unluckiest of 20 in the La Liga

Valencia can't catch a break. 46 points when the data says they deserve closer to 54.07? 15 losses, many of them undeserved based on the chances created. The numbers say better days are coming. Top driver: xPTS Gap (-13.5 CLS impact). 8 fewer points than xG simulations say they deserve

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

46
Points
Expected: 54.07
43
Goals Scored
xG: 48.42
54
Goals Conceded
xGA: 45.78
8.1
Points Below Expected
Unlucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 31 · 2026-04-11 · vs Elche · away
0-1
Lost away against Elche

A shutout loss that the numbers say should never have happened. Valencia created 2.54 xG worth of chances - enough for roughly 3 goals on an average day. They scored 0. Elche generated just 0.59 xG but made it count. The model valued this match at 2.5 points for Valencia. They got 0. That's 2.5 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
73'L. Cepeda scores for Elche (assist: A. Febas)
2.54
xG Created
0.59
Opp. xG
-2.5
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW31 · 2026-04-11 · vs Elche · Away-2.5 pts
Lost 0-1 away despite 2.5 xG. Expected 2.5 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-1 | xG: 2.54-0.59
MW7 · 2025-09-30 · vs Oviedo · Home-1.9 pts
Lost 1-2 home despite 1.5 xG. Expected 1.9 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-2 | xG: 1.51-0.77
MW19 · 2026-01-10 · vs Elche · Home-1.6 pts
Drew 1-1 home despite 2.0 xG. Expected 2.6 pts, got 1.
Score: 1-1 | xG: 1.96-0.16

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW33 · 2026-04-25 · vs Girona · Home+1.7 pts
Won 2-1 home from 1.4 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.3 expected.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 1.4-1.56
MW24 · 2026-02-15 · vs Levante · Away+1.6 pts
Won 2-0 away from 0.7 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.3 expected.
Score: 2-0 | xG: 0.68-0.63
MW35 · 2026-05-10 · vs Athletic Club · Away+1.4 pts
Won 1-0 away from 1.2 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.6 expected.
Score: 1-0 | xG: 1.19-0.93

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

xPTS Gap
8 fewer points than xG simulations say they deserve
-13.5
Defensive Luck
Conceded 8 more goals than the 45.8 xGA opponents generated
-10
Finishing Luck
Scored 5 fewer goals than their 48.4 xG - wasting chances
-7.9
Schedule Strength
Faced stronger-than-average opponents - a tough draw
-4.3
Discipline
Opponents picking up more cards - refereeing luck is on their side
+3.8
Shot Volume Gap
Outshooting opponents but not getting the results to match
-2.5
Injury Burden
High injury burden (158 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
-0.6
Total CLS-35

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
Improvement Probable
Last 5: improving|1 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

At -35, Valencia are meaningfully unlucky. They're roughly 8 points below where their performance says they deserve to be. Recent form suggests the tide is already turning.

Next Matches
05-23
H
Barcelona
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