Valencia Luck Index

2025-26 Season · View La Liga standings →

-41

Luck Index Score

Valencia can't catch a break. 35 points when they deserve 42.74? That's 7.74 points stolen by the football gods. 12 losses, many of them undeserved based on the chances created. If luck were a stat, they'd be bottom of the table.

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Points

Expected: 42.74

Goals Scored

xG: 37.29

Goals Conceded

xGA: 35.48

7.7

Points Below Expected

Unlucky gap

Luck Index Evolution

How the Luck Index has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match

Matchweek 19 · 2026-01-10 · vs Elche · at home

1-1

Drew at home against Elche

A draw that felt like a loss. Valencia generated 1.96 xG, comfortably more than the 0.16 their opponent managed. Elche created almost nothing - just 0.16 xG - but scored 1 goal. The model valued this match at 2.6 points for Valencia. They got 1. That's 1.6 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline

4'A. Danjuma scores for Valencia (assist: L. Rioja)

85'L. Ilic scores for Oviedo

86'S. Rondon scores for Oviedo (assist: L. Ahijado)

90+2'Luka Ilić (Oviedo) - Red Card

1.96

xG Created

0.16

Opp. xG

-1.6

Pts Lost

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW7 · 2025-09-30 · vs Oviedo · Home-1.9 pts

Lost 1-2 home despite 1.5 xG. Expected 1.9 pts, got 0.

Score: 1-2 | xG: 1.51-0.77

MW19 · 2026-01-10 · vs Elche · Home-1.6 pts

Drew 1-1 home despite 2.0 xG. Expected 2.6 pts, got 1.

Score: 1-1 | xG: 1.96-0.16

MW16 · 2025-12-13 · vs Atletico Madrid · Away-1.5 pts

Lost 1-2 away despite 1.2 xG. Expected 1.5 pts, got 0.

Score: 1-2 | xG: 1.17-1.01

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW24 · 2026-02-15 · vs Levante · Away+1.6 pts

Won 2-0 away from 0.7 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.3 expected.

Score: 2-0 | xG: 0.68-0.63

MW20 · 2026-01-18 · vs Getafe · Away+1.4 pts

Won 1-0 away from 0.9 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.6 expected.

Score: 1-0 | xG: 0.89-0.62

MW3 · 2025-08-29 · vs Getafe · Home+1.3 pts

Won 3-0 home from 1.1 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.7 expected.

Score: 3-0 | xG: 1.13-0.66

What's Driving the Luck Index

Each factor's contribution to the Luck Index score. These add up to the total.

xPTS Gap

8 fewer points than xG simulations say they deserve

-16

Defensive Luck

Conceded 7 more goals than the 35.5 xGA opponents generated

-12

Finishing Luck

Scored 5 fewer goals than their 37.3 xG - wasting chances

-9

Schedule Strength

Faced stronger-than-average opponents - a tough draw

-9

Discipline

Opponents picking up more cards - refereeing luck is on their side

Shot Volume Gap

Outshooting opponents but not getting the results to match

-3

Injury Burden

Low injury burden (104 player-games missed) - squad depth available

Total Luck Index-42

Rivalry Check

How are the rivals doing?

What to Expect Next

Regression Outlook

Results Expected to Improve

Last 5: stable|9 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds

Why?

Valencia are deeply cursed at -41. This level of underperformance almost never persists. The data they're generating - the chances created, the shots taken, the defensive work - all point to a team better than their record. Regression to the mean is one of the most reliable forces in sports.

Next Matches

04-05

Celta Vigo

Bet

04-11

Elche

Bet

04-22

Mallorca

Bet

04-25

Girona

Bet

05-03

Atletico Madrid

Bet

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