Valencia

Valencia CURSD Luck Score

2026-27 season · 7 matches played · View La Liga standings →

-27
CLS Score
1st unluckiest of 20 in the La Liga

Valencia can't catch a break. 4 points when the data says they deserve closer to 6.7? 5 losses, many of them undeserved based on the chances created. The numbers say better days are coming. Top driver: Schedule Strength (-8.6 CLS impact). Faced stronger-than-average opponents - a tough draw

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

4
Points
Expected: 6.7
4
Goals Scored
xG: 6.06
13
Goals Conceded
xGA: 11.5
2.7
Points Below Expected
Unlucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 2 · 2026-08-25 · vs Real Betis · at home
0-1
Lost at home against Real Betis

One of those games where nothing went right. The model valued this match at 1.7 points for Valencia. They got 0. That's 1.7 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
83'P. Garcia scores for Real Betis (assist: F. Garcia)
1.12
xG Created
0.71
Opp. xG
-1.7
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW2 · 2026-08-25 · vs Real Betis · Home-1.7 pts
Lost 0-1 home despite 1.1 xG. Expected 1.7 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-1 | xG: 1.12-0.71
MW3 · 2026-08-30 · vs Deportivo La Coruna · Away-1.4 pts
Lost 1-3 away despite 1.4 xG. Expected 1.4 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-3 | xG: 1.4-1.42
MW7 · 2026-09-20 · vs Real Sociedad · Home-0.8 pts
Lost 2-3 home. xG: 1.6-2.6.
Score: 2-3 | xG: 1.55-2.65

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW6 · 2026-09-15 · vs Alaves · Away+2.0 pts
Won 1-0 away from 0.7 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.0 expected.
Score: 1-0 | xG: 0.65-1.05
MW4 · 2026-09-06 · vs Barcelona · Home+-0.1 pts
Lost 0-5 home. xG: 0.7-4.1.
Score: 0-5 | xG: 0.66-4.08
MW1 · 2026-08-22 · vs Celta Vigo · Home+-0.2 pts
Drew 0-0 home. xG: 0.6-0.7.
Score: 0-0 | xG: 0.58-0.66

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Schedule Strength
Faced stronger-than-average opponents - a tough draw
-8.6
xPTS Gap
3 fewer points than xG simulations say they deserve
-5.4
Injury Burden
High injury burden (54 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
-5.3
Finishing Luck
Scored 2 fewer goals than their 6.1 xG - wasting chances
-4.6
Shot Volume Gap
Outshooting opponents but not getting the results to match
-3
Defensive Luck
Conceded 2 more goals than the 11.5 xGA opponents generated
-1.3
Discipline
Opponents picking up more cards - refereeing luck is on their side
+1.2
Total CLS-27

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
Improvement Probable
Last 5: stable|31 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

At -27, Valencia are meaningfully unlucky. They're roughly 3 points below where their performance says they deserve to be. The underlying quality is there - results are expected to follow as luck normalizes.

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