Anaheim Ducks

Anaheim Ducks CURSD Luck Score

2025-26 NHL regular season · 82 games played · View NHL standings →

+58
CLS Score
1st luckiest of 32 in the NHL

Ducks have been living on borrowed time. 92 points from 87.4 expected — shootout wins and narrow escapes padding the record. The data says the wheels are overdue to wobble. Top driver: Pythagorean Delta (+24.2 CLS impact). 5 more points than their goal differential predicts

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

92
Points
Expected: 87.4
273
Goals For
288
Goals Against
4.6
Points Above Expected
Lucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Game 8 · 2025-10-25 · vs Lightning · away
4-3
Lost away against Lightning

Lost 3-4 against Tampa Bay Lightning. A one-goal margin - the thinnest of margins.

3
Goals
4
Opp. Goals
-0.9
Win Equity Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

Gm8 · 2025-10-25 · vs Lightning · Away-0.9 pts
Lost 3-4 against Tampa Bay Lightning. A one-goal margin - the thinnest of margins.
Score: 3-4
Gm23 · 2025-11-26 · vs Canucks · Home-0.9 pts
Lost 4-5 against Vancouver Canucks. A one-goal margin - the thinnest of margins.
Score: 4-5
Gm39 · 2025-12-29 · vs Sharks · Home-0.9 pts
Lost 4-5 against San Jose Sharks. A one-goal margin - the thinnest of margins.
Score: 4-5

✦ Luckiest Matches

Gm82 · 2026-04-16 · vs Predators · Away+0.9 pts
Edged Nashville Predators 5-4. Close game that could have gone either way.
Score: 5-4
Gm70 · 2026-03-22 · vs Sabres · Home+0.9 pts
Edged Buffalo Sabres 6-5 in OT/SO. Close game that could have gone either way.
Score: 6-5
Gm67 · 2026-03-15 · vs Canadiens · Away+0.9 pts
Edged Montréal Canadiens 4-3. Close game that could have gone either way.
Score: 4-3

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Pythagorean Delta
5 more points than their goal differential predicts
+24.2
Shootout Record
8-0 in shootouts (net +8)
+23.4
Close Games
24-12 in one-goal games (67% win rate vs expected 50%)
+21.3
OT Loss Rate
6 OT losses earning loser points - some consolation from OT
-9.6
Injury Burden
High injury burden (9 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
-1.3
Total CLS+58

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
Results Expected to Decline
Last 5: stable

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

At +58, Ducks are living on borrowed time. This level of overperformance is historically unsustainable. The gap between their results and their actual quality is too large to maintain.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available