San Jose Sharks Luck Index

2025-26 NHL Season · View NHL standings →

+47

Luck Index Score

San Jose Sharks have had fortune smiling on them. 6.6 points above what the data says they deserve. Not outrageous, but don't be surprised when the wheels start wobbling.

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Points

Expected: 72.4

228

Goals For

Expected: 72.4

261

Goals Against

6.6

Points Above Expected

Lucky gap

Luck Index Evolution

How the Luck Index has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match

Matchweek 6 · 2025-10-21 · vs New York Islanders · away

3-4

Lost away against New York Islanders

One of those games where nothing went right. San Jose Sharks created 3 xG worth of chances - enough for roughly 3 goals on an average day. They scored 3. The model valued this match at 0.9 points for San Jose Sharks. They got 0. That's 0.9 points of bad luck in 60 minutes.

xG Created

Opp. xG

-0.9

Pts Lost

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW6 · 2025-10-21 · vs New York Islanders · Away-0.9 pts

Lost 3-4 against New York Islanders. A one-goal margin - the thinnest of margins.

Score: 3-4 | xG: 3-4

MW10 · 2025-10-28 · vs Los Angeles Kings · Home-0.9 pts

Lost 3-4 against Los Angeles Kings. A one-goal margin - the thinnest of margins.

Score: 3-4 | xG: 3-4

MW26 · 2025-11-29 · vs Vegas Golden Knights · Away-0.9 pts

Lost 3-4 against Vegas Golden Knights. A one-goal margin - the thinnest of margins.

Score: 3-4 | xG: 3-4

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW73 · 2026-04-01 · vs Anaheim Ducks · Home+0.9 pts

Edged Anaheim Ducks 4-3. Close game that could have gone either way.

Score: 4-3 | xG: 4-3

MW72 · 2026-03-30 · vs St. Louis Blues · Home+0.9 pts

Edged St. Louis Blues 5-4. Close game that could have gone either way.

Score: 5-4 | xG: 5-4

MW57 · 2026-02-28 · vs Edmonton Oilers · Home+0.9 pts

Edged Edmonton Oilers 5-4. Close game that could have gone either way.

Score: 5-4 | xG: 5-4

What's Driving the Luck Index

Each factor's contribution to the Luck Index score. These add up to the total.

Pythagorean Delta

7 more points than their goal differential predicts

+35

Close Games

20-12 in one-goal games (63% win rate vs expected 50%)

+16

OT Loss Rate

7 OT losses earning loser points - some consolation from OT

-6

Shootout Record

2-1 in shootouts (net +1)

Total Luck Index+48

Rivalry Check

How are the rivals doing?

What to Expect Next

Regression Outlook

Results Expected to Decline

Last 5: improving|8 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds

Why?

At +47, San Jose Sharks are living on borrowed time. This level of overperformance is historically unsustainable. The gap between their results and their actual quality is too large to maintain.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available

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