San Jose Sharks

San Jose Sharks CURSD Luck Score

2025-26 NHL regular season · 82 games played · View NHL standings →

+52
CLS Score
2nd luckiest of 32 in the NHL

Sharks have been living on borrowed time. 86 points from 78.5 expected — shootout wins and narrow escapes padding the record. The data says the wheels are overdue to wobble. Top driver: Pythagorean Delta (+39.2 CLS impact). 8 more points than their goal differential predicts

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

86
Points
Expected: 78.5
251
Goals For
292
Goals Against
7.5
Points Above Expected
Lucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Game 6 · 2025-10-21 · vs Islanders · away
4-3
Lost away against Islanders

Lost 3-4 against New York Islanders. A one-goal margin - the thinnest of margins.

3
Goals
4
Opp. Goals
-0.9
Win Equity Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

Gm6 · 2025-10-21 · vs Islanders · Away-0.9 pts
Lost 3-4 against New York Islanders. A one-goal margin - the thinnest of margins.
Score: 3-4
Gm10 · 2025-10-28 · vs Kings · Home-0.9 pts
Lost 3-4 against Los Angeles Kings. A one-goal margin - the thinnest of margins.
Score: 3-4
Gm26 · 2025-11-29 · vs Golden Knights · Away-0.9 pts
Lost 3-4 against Vegas Golden Knights. A one-goal margin - the thinnest of margins.
Score: 3-4

✦ Luckiest Matches

Gm73 · 2026-04-01 · vs Ducks · Home+0.9 pts
Edged Anaheim Ducks 4-3. Close game that could have gone either way.
Score: 4-3
Gm72 · 2026-03-30 · vs Blues · Home+0.9 pts
Edged St. Louis Blues 5-4. Close game that could have gone either way.
Score: 5-4
Gm57 · 2026-02-28 · vs Oilers · Home+0.9 pts
Edged Edmonton Oilers 5-4. Close game that could have gone either way.
Score: 5-4

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Pythagorean Delta
8 more points than their goal differential predicts
+39.2
Close Games
22-13 in one-goal games (63% win rate vs expected 50%)
+16.3
OT Loss Rate
8 OT losses earning loser points - some consolation from OT
-6.4
Injury Burden
High injury burden (6 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
+3.1
Shootout Record
2-2 in shootouts (net 0)
-0.2
Total CLS+52

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
Results Expected to Decline
Last 5: stable

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

At +52, Sharks are living on borrowed time. This level of overperformance is historically unsustainable. The gap between their results and their actual quality is too large to maintain.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available