Angels

Angels CURSD Luck Score

2026 MLB regular season · 120 games played · View MLB standings →

-32
CLS Score
5th unluckiest of 30 in the MLB

Angels deserve more. 46 wins vs 50.5 expected from their run differential. The bats and pitching are good enough, but the sequencing hasn't cooperated. The 162-game grind tends to even this out. Top driver: Pythagorean Delta (-17.6 CLS impact). 4 fewer wins than their run differential predicts

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

46
Wins
Expected: 50.5
488
Runs Scored
581
Runs Allowed
4.5
Wins Below Expected
Unlucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Game 17 · 2026-04-13 · vs Yankees · away
11-10
Lost away against Yankees

Lost 10-11 to Yankees (12-14 H). A one-run margin where sequencing decided the outcome.

10
Runs
11
Opp. Runs
-0.5
Win Equity Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

Gm17 · 2026-04-13 · vs Yankees · Away-0.5 pts
Lost 10-11 to Yankees (12-14 H). A one-run margin where sequencing decided the outcome.
Score: 10-11
Gm77 · 2026-06-19 · vs Athletics · Away-0.5 pts
Fell 11-12 to Athletics in 10 innings (11-12 H). Couldn't find the clutch hit in extras.
Score: 11-12
Gm3 · 2026-03-28 · vs Astros · Away-0.4 pts
Lost 9-11 to Astros. 3 errors turned a competitive game into a loss.
Score: 9-11

✦ Luckiest Matches

Gm116 · 2026-08-07 · vs Marlins · Away+0.4 pts
Won 4-3 against Marlins despite being outhit 12-6. Got the breaks when it mattered.
Score: 4-3
Gm106 · 2026-07-26 · vs Giants · Away+0.4 pts
Won 4-3 against Giants. 2 Giants errors opened the door in a tight one.
Score: 4-3
Gm95 · 2026-07-10 · vs Twins · Away+0.4 pts
Won 4-3 against Twins (10-9 H). Tight game that could have tipped either way.
Score: 4-3

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Pythagorean Delta
4 fewer wins than their run differential predicts
-17.6
One-Run Game Record
15-20 in one-run games (43% — below the .500 norm where teams historically regress, bad sequencing luck)
-8.5
Pitching Luck
ERA 4.85 vs xERA 4.75 - pitchers allowing more runs than contact quality suggests
-5.4
Batting Luck
wOBA 0.302 vs xwOBA 0.303 - hard contact not converting into hits
-2.7
Injury Burden
High injury burden (8 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
+2.2
Total CLS-32

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
Improvement Probable
Last 5: stable|42 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

At -32, Angels are meaningfully unlucky. They're roughly 5 wins below where their performance says they deserve to be. The underlying quality is there - results are expected to follow as luck normalizes. Their next 5 opponents average 22th in the league - a favorable stretch. That should help accelerate the correction.

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