Angels

Angels CURSD Luck Score

2026 MLB regular season · 130 games played · View MLB standings →

-42
CLS Score
3rd unluckiest of 30 in the MLB

Angels are cursed by baseball's most unforgiving luck signal: one-run games. 52 wins from 57.9 expected by Pythagorean run differential. They're outscoring opponents overall but losing the sequencing — tight games, bunched innings, BABIP variance. The regression is coming, and it usually comes fast. Top driver: Pythagorean Delta (-21.4 CLS impact). 6 fewer wins than their run differential predicts

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

52
Wins
Expected: 57.9
534
Runs Scored
602
Runs Allowed
5.9
Wins Below Expected
Unlucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Game 17 · 2026-04-13 · vs Yankees · away
11-10
Lost away against Yankees

Lost 10-11 to Yankees (12-14 H). A one-run margin where sequencing decided the outcome.

10
Runs
11
Opp. Runs
-0.5
Win Equity Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

Gm17 · 2026-04-13 · vs Yankees · Away-0.5 pts
Lost 10-11 to Yankees (12-14 H). A one-run margin where sequencing decided the outcome.
Score: 10-11
Gm77 · 2026-06-19 · vs Athletics · Away-0.5 pts
Fell 11-12 to Athletics in 10 innings (11-12 H). Couldn't find the clutch hit in extras.
Score: 11-12
Gm3 · 2026-03-28 · vs Astros · Away-0.4 pts
Lost 9-11 to Astros. 3 errors turned a competitive game into a loss.
Score: 9-11

✦ Luckiest Matches

Gm116 · 2026-08-07 · vs Marlins · Away+0.4 pts
Won 4-3 against Marlins despite being outhit 12-6. Got the breaks when it mattered.
Score: 4-3
Gm106 · 2026-07-26 · vs Giants · Away+0.4 pts
Won 4-3 against Giants. 2 Giants errors opened the door in a tight one.
Score: 4-3
Gm95 · 2026-07-10 · vs Twins · Away+0.4 pts
Won 4-3 against Twins (10-9 H). Tight game that could have tipped either way.
Score: 4-3

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Pythagorean Delta
6 fewer wins than their run differential predicts
-21.4
One-Run Game Record
16-23 in one-run games (41% — below the .500 norm where teams historically regress, bad sequencing luck)
-11.6
Batting Luck
wOBA 0.301 vs xwOBA 0.302 - hard contact not converting into hits
-3.6
Pitching Luck
ERA 4.58 vs xERA 4.54 - pitchers allowing more runs than contact quality suggests
-3.2
Injury Burden
High injury burden (11 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
-2.2
Total CLS-42

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
Results Expected to Improve
Last 5: stable|32 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Angels are deeply cursed at -42. This level of underperformance almost never persists. The data they're generating - the chances created, the shots taken, the defensive work - all point to a team better than their record. Regression to the mean is one of the most reliable forces in sports.

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