Angels

Angels CURSD Luck Score

2026 MLB regular season · 50 games played · View MLB standings →

-15
CLS Score
6th unluckiest of 30 in the MLB

Angels are getting what their run differential deserves. 17 wins vs 18.4 expected — the baseball gods are neutral. Top driver: Pitching Luck (-10.5 CLS impact). ERA 4.77 vs xERA 4.23 - pitchers allowing more runs than contact quality suggests

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

17
Wins
Expected: 18.4
199
Runs Scored
267
Runs Allowed
1.4
Wins Below Expected
Unlucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Game 17 · 2026-04-13 · vs Yankees · away
11-10
Lost away against Yankees

Lost 10-11 to Yankees (12-14 H). A one-run margin where sequencing decided the outcome.

10
Runs
11
Opp. Runs
-0.5
Win Equity Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

Gm17 · 2026-04-13 · vs Yankees · Away-0.5 pts
Lost 10-11 to Yankees (12-14 H). A one-run margin where sequencing decided the outcome.
Score: 10-11
Gm3 · 2026-03-28 · vs Astros · Away-0.4 pts
Lost 9-11 to Astros. 3 errors turned a competitive game into a loss.
Score: 9-11
Gm4 · 2026-03-29 · vs Astros · Away-0.4 pts
Lost 7-9 to Astros (7-7 H). Astros were the better team on the day.
Score: 7-9

✦ Luckiest Matches

Gm37 · 2026-05-05 · vs White Sox · Home+0.4 pts
Won 4-3 against White Sox. White Sox left 11 on base - survived their best chances.
Score: 4-3
Gm34 · 2026-05-02 · vs Mets · Home+0.4 pts
Won 4-3 in 10 innings against Mets (12-9 H). Found the walk-off moment in extras.
Score: 4-3
Gm10 · 2026-04-05 · vs Mariners · Home+0.4 pts
Won 8-7 in 11 innings against Mariners (11-7 H). Found the walk-off moment in extras.
Score: 8-7

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Pitching Luck
ERA 4.77 vs xERA 4.23 - pitchers allowing more runs than contact quality suggests
-10.5
Pythagorean Delta
1 fewer wins than their run differential predicts
-4.9
Injury Burden
High injury burden (6 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
+4.8
One-Run Game Record
5-8 in one-run games (38% — below the .500 norm where teams historically regress, bad sequencing luck)
-4.7
Batting Luck
wOBA 0.310 vs xwOBA 0.314 - hard contact not converting into hits
+0.3
Total CLS-15

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
Improvement Probable
Last 5: stable|112 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

At -15, Angels are meaningfully unlucky. They're roughly 1 wins below where their performance says they deserve to be. The underlying quality is there - results are expected to follow as luck normalizes. Their next 5 opponents average 18th in the league - a favorable stretch. That should help accelerate the correction.

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