Athletics

Athletics CURSD Luck Score

2026 MLB regular season · 162 games played · View MLB standings →

-22
CLS Score
10th unluckiest of 30 in the MLB

Athletics deserve more. 64 wins vs 59.8 expected from their run differential. The bats and pitching are good enough, but the sequencing hasn't cooperated. The 162-game grind tends to even this out. Top driver: Pitching Luck (-44.8 CLS impact). ERA 5.59 vs xERA 4.55 - pitchers allowing more runs than contact quality suggests

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

64
Wins
Expected: 59.8
699
Runs Scored
937
Runs Allowed
4.2
Wins Above Expected
Lucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Game 66 · 2026-06-08 · vs Brewers · at home
15-14
Lost at home against Brewers

Lost 14-15 in 12 innings to Brewers. Left 10 runners on base - the opportunities were there but couldn't cash in.

14
Runs
15
Opp. Runs
-0.5
Win Equity Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

Gm66 · 2026-06-08 · vs Brewers · Home-0.5 pts
Lost 14-15 in 12 innings to Brewers. Left 10 runners on base - the opportunities were there but couldn't cash in.
Score: 14-15
Gm2 · 2026-03-28 · vs Blue Jays · Away-0.4 pts
Fell 7-8 to Blue Jays in 11 innings (8-14 H). Couldn't find the clutch hit in extras.
Score: 7-8
Gm25 · 2026-04-22 · vs Mariners · Away-0.4 pts
Lost 4-5 to Mariners (9-14 H). A one-run margin where sequencing decided the outcome.
Score: 4-5

✦ Luckiest Matches

Gm76 · 2026-06-19 · vs Angels · Home+0.5 pts
Won 12-11 in 10 innings against Angels (12-11 H). Found the walk-off moment in extras.
Score: 12-11
Gm160 · 2026-09-25 · vs Astros · Home+0.4 pts
Won 6-5 against Astros. 2 Astros errors opened the door in a tight one.
Score: 6-5
Gm157 · 2026-09-22 · vs Angels · Home+0.4 pts
Beat Angels 9-7 (14-15 H). Solid win backed by the underlying numbers.
Score: 9-7

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Pitching Luck
ERA 5.59 vs xERA 4.55 - pitchers allowing more runs than contact quality suggests
-44.8
Pythagorean Delta
4 more wins than their run differential predicts
+14.7
Batting Luck
wOBA 0.320 vs xwOBA 0.310 - batters outperforming their contact quality
+14.1
Injury Burden
High injury burden (16 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
-6.2
One-Run Game Record
23-23 in one-run games — exactly at the .500 norm
+0.2
Total CLS-22

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
Improvement Probable
Last 5: stable

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

At -22, Athletics are meaningfully unlucky. They're roughly 4 wins below where their performance says they deserve to be. The underlying quality is there - results are expected to follow as luck normalizes.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available