Athletics CURSD Luck Score
2026 MLB regular season · 50 games played · View MLB standings →
+11
CLS Score
7th luckiest of 30 in the MLB
Athletics are getting what their run differential deserves. 26 wins vs 24.6 expected — the baseball gods are neutral.
Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC
Key Stats
26
Wins
Expected: 24.6
224
Runs Scored
228
Runs Allowed
1.4
Wins Above Expected
Lucky gap
CLS Evolution
How the CLS has changed throughout the season
Unluckiest Match
Game 2 · 2026-03-28 · vs Blue Jays · away
8-7
Lost away against Blue Jays
Fell 7-8 to Blue Jays in 11 innings (8-14 H). Couldn't find the clutch hit in extras.
7
Runs
8
Opp. Runs
-0.4
Win Equity Lost
Individual Games
☠ Unluckiest Matches
Gm2 · 2026-03-28 · vs Blue Jays · Away-0.4 pts
Fell 7-8 to Blue Jays in 11 innings (8-14 H). Couldn't find the clutch hit in extras.
Score: 7-8
Gm25 · 2026-04-22 · vs Mariners · Away-0.4 pts
Lost 4-5 to Mariners (9-14 H). A one-run margin where sequencing decided the outcome.
Score: 4-5
Gm27 · 2026-04-25 · vs Rangers · Away-0.4 pts
Lost 3-4 to Rangers (7-5 H). A one-run margin where sequencing decided the outcome.
Score: 3-4
✦ Luckiest Matches
Gm49 · 2026-05-20 · vs Angels · Away+0.4 pts
Won 6-5 in 10 innings against Angels. 2 Angels errors opened the door in a tight one.
Score: 6-5
Gm38 · 2026-05-08 · vs Orioles · Away+0.4 pts
Won 4-3 against Orioles (8-4 H). Tight game that could have tipped either way.
Score: 4-3
Gm21 · 2026-04-18 · vs White Sox · Home+0.4 pts
Won 7-6 in 11 innings against White Sox. White Sox left 14 on base - survived their best chances.
Score: 7-6
Core Contributing Factors
What's Driving the CLS
Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.
Pitching Luck
ERA 4.50 vs xERA 4.23 - pitchers allowing more runs than contact quality suggests
-6.2
Pythagorean Delta
1 more wins than their run differential predicts
+5.2
Injury Burden
High injury burden (6 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
+4.9
Batting Luck
wOBA 0.326 vs xwOBA 0.324 - batters outperforming their contact quality
+3.7
One-Run Game Record
10-7 in one-run games (59% — above the historical .500 norm, riding sequencing luck)
+3.4
Total CLS+11
Rivalry Check
How are the rivals doing?
Future Outlook
Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: stable|112 games left
Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.
See the oddsWhy?
Athletics are right where they belong. Their CLS of +11 means results match performance. What you see is what you get. Their remaining schedule is moderate (opponents average 12th).