Athletics CURSD Luck Score
2026 MLB regular season · 90 games played · View MLB standings →
+4
CLS Score
14th luckiest of 30 in the MLB
Athletics are getting what their run differential deserves. 41 wins vs 38.5 expected — the baseball gods are neutral.
Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC
Key Stats
41
Wins
Expected: 38.5
416
Runs Scored
488
Runs Allowed
2.5
Wins Above Expected
Lucky gap
CLS Evolution
How the CLS has changed throughout the season
Unluckiest Match
Game 66 · 2026-06-08 · vs Brewers · at home
15-14
Lost at home against Brewers
Lost 14-15 in 12 innings to Brewers. Left 10 runners on base - the opportunities were there but couldn't cash in.
14
Runs
15
Opp. Runs
-0.5
Win Equity Lost
Individual Games
☠ Unluckiest Matches
Gm66 · 2026-06-08 · vs Brewers · Home-0.5 pts
Lost 14-15 in 12 innings to Brewers. Left 10 runners on base - the opportunities were there but couldn't cash in.
Score: 14-15
Gm2 · 2026-03-28 · vs Blue Jays · Away-0.4 pts
Fell 7-8 to Blue Jays in 11 innings (8-14 H). Couldn't find the clutch hit in extras.
Score: 7-8
Gm25 · 2026-04-22 · vs Mariners · Away-0.4 pts
Lost 4-5 to Mariners (9-14 H). A one-run margin where sequencing decided the outcome.
Score: 4-5
✦ Luckiest Matches
Gm76 · 2026-06-19 · vs Angels · Home+0.5 pts
Won 12-11 in 10 innings against Angels (12-11 H). Found the walk-off moment in extras.
Score: 12-11
Gm70 · 2026-06-13 · vs Rockies · Home+0.4 pts
Beat Rockies 7-5 (11-8 H). Solid win backed by the underlying numbers.
Score: 7-5
Gm68 · 2026-06-10 · vs Brewers · Home+0.4 pts
Won 4-3 against Brewers (9-11 H). Tight game that could have tipped either way.
Score: 4-3
Core Contributing Factors
What's Driving the CLS
Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.
Pitching Luck
ERA 5.10 vs xERA 4.36 - pitchers allowing more runs than contact quality suggests
-20.9
Pythagorean Delta
3 more wins than their run differential predicts
+10.6
Batting Luck
wOBA 0.327 vs xwOBA 0.318 - batters outperforming their contact quality
+9.4
One-Run Game Record
14-12 in one-run games (54% — above the historical .500 norm, riding sequencing luck)
+3
Injury Burden
High injury burden (8 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
+1.9
Total CLS+4
Rivalry Check
How are the rivals doing?
Future Outlook
Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: stable|72 games left
Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.
See the oddsWhy?
Athletics are right where they belong. Their CLS of +4 means results match performance. What you see is what you get. Their next 5 opponents average 18th in the league - a favorable stretch.